Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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621
FNUS74 KMEG 211305
FWSMEG
Spot Forecast for David Crockett Burn...TN Division of Forestry
National Weather Service Memphis TN
805 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on October 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Dry conditions are anticipated today with lowering dewpoints and
humidity values through the afternoon. There are medium
probabilities (30-50%) of relative humidity values dropping below
30% between 2-5 PM. Northeasterly winds will remain light, with
10-hour fuel moisture values forecast to be around 10%.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Dewpoint............48 decreasing to 44 in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north around 5 mph late in
the afternoon, then becoming light late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).300-4300 ft MSL.
Mixing height (m)...91-1311 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 8 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Northeast 2 to 4 meters/second.
2000 ft winds.......Northeast 7 to 9 mph.
5000 ft winds.......Northeast 7 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1200 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (29800 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........20 12 6 5 5 2 2 3 7 1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............46 52 60 66 71 73 75 75 75 73
Dewpoint........46 50 50 49 47 45 45 44 43 43
RH..............100 93 69 54 42 37 34 33 32 34
20 FT wind dir..NE NE NE NE N N N N N N
20 FT wind spd..1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 5 3
20 FT wind gust.2 4 4 6 6 8 8 8 8 7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.4 0.7 1.6 3.3 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.2 3.3
Mx ht msl (kft).0.3 0.4 0.7 1.6 3.3 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.2 3.3
Mix hgt (km)....0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.0
Transp wind dir.NE NE NE NE N N NE NE NE NE
Transp wind spd.5 5 5 6 8 8 8 8 8 8
Trans wind dir..NE NE NE NE N N NE NE NE NE
Trans spd (m/s).2 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4
2000 ft wnd dir.E NE NE NE NE N N N N N
2000 ft wnd spd.8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9
5000 ft wnd dir.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE N N N
5000 ft wnd spd.7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 2 3 8 23 28 30 30 29 23
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Dewpoint............44 increasing to 47 early in the evening.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).400-500 ft MSL.
Mixing height (m)...122-152 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 8 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Northeast 3 to 4 meters/second.
2000 ft winds.......Northeast 10 to 13 mph.
5000 ft winds.......Northeast 9 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1900 knot-ft).
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........7 9 2 4 8 11 21 21 15 11 7 10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............70 65 58 55 54 52 51 50 49 48 47 46
Dewpoint........44 45 49 48 48 47 47 47 46 46 46 45
RH..............39 48 72 77 80 83 86 89 89 93 96 96
20 FT wind dir..N NE NE NE N N N N N N N N
20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
20 FT wind gust.6 6 5 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Mx ht msl (kft).0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Mix hgt (km)....0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.NE N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
Transp wind spd.7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6
Trans wind dir..NE N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
Trans spd (m/s).3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
2000 ft wnd dir.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
2000 ft wnd spd.10 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 10
5000 ft wnd dir.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
5000 ft wnd spd.9 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Dewpoint............45 increasing to 49 in the late morning and
afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north 5 to 6 mph in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).300-4600 ft MSL.
Mixing height (m)...91-1402 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 10 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Northeast 3 to 4 meters/second.
2000 ft winds.......Northeast 9 to 12 mph.
5000 ft winds.......North 12 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1700 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (41000 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........7 1 1 2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
Temp............46 54 72 76
Dewpoint........45 50 50 48
RH..............96 86 46 37
20 FT wind......N 0G2 NE 1G4 NE 3G8 N 6G10
Mix hgt (ft)....300 700 3500 4600
Mx ht msl (ft)..300 700 3500 4600
Mix hgt (m).....90 210 1070 1400
Transport wind..NE 6 NE 7 NE 9 N 9
Tran wind (m/s).NE 3 NE 3 NE 4 N 4
2000 ft wind....NE 12 NE 12 N 10 N 9
5000 ft wind....N 12 NE 13 N 12 N 12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2 4 28 37
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR
$$
Forecaster...Meadows
Requested by...Kody Hazlewood
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2624231.0/MEG
.DELDT 10/21/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kody.hazlewood@tn.gov