Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
964 FXUS62 KMFL 050717 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 317 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 153 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - Heaviest rain & flooding potential south of Alligator Alley today. - Another round of potentially heavy rain expected in similar locations tomorrow. - Wet pattern continues well into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 153 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Today... WV imagery this morning depicts a large eastern CONUS trough with an elongated potential vorticity anomaly draped across the northern Gulf up to the Mid-Atlantic coast. A 05z subjective surface analysis places a broad area of troughing across south Florida, with a stationary boundary draped across central Florida (delineated by primarily a Td gradient). Ensembles are in good agreement that the aforementioned shortwave will amplify a bit more through today before advecting northeast back into the northern stream this weekend. They also agree on very little organization of a surface reflection to the wave, likely due to a combination of the limited depth of the shortwave combined with slightly more stable air over land areas as the wave moves from the Gulf to the Atlantic. So, while there will be some upper-level support for ascent, the surface forcing will remain fairly broad and likely more driven by seabreeze, outflow, and differential heating boundaries. This setup yields a medium to high confidence in numerous showers and storms, but low confidence in timing and placement. The 00z sounding from MFL shows PWATs in the top 10th percentile for this time of year. Further, across the southern half of south Florida mid-level flow is rather unidirectional out of the west, with surface flow backed more out of the south on the southern edge of the broad trough. This would tend to favor a convergent moisture feed with storms lining up and moving from west to east. The anomalous moisture and the background winds could result in pockets of heavy rainfall, especially across Miami-Dade county today. Further north, the broad cyclonic storm may result in less training of storms and more of a north to south movement down the east coast. Between global models, CAMs, and the National Blend, it appears as though common rain amounts across south Florida will be on the order of 1-2" where it rains, with values of 2-4" being a little more scattered in nature and confined to the heavier storms. The HREF LPMM data indicates that there`s a worst case potential for an isolated spot or two to pick up 4-6" in short order and this is supported in more than just one or two of the ensemble members. These more extreme amounts will be most likely across Miami-Dade county today. But again, it`s important to note that where these amounts may fall is highly uncertain and some of the HREF members have these hot-spots offshore - just something to be aware of going into the afternoon. Saturday... Not going to rehash the synoptic setup as it`s similar to what was laid out above. The main difference is that the upper-level forcing will begin to lift out of the region, though the moisture and broad surface forcing will remain. The greatest rain chances will once again be across the southern half of south Florida along the trailing convergence area behind the very weak surface reflection associated with the departing shortwave. Ensembles all remain in good agreement on the pattern and as far as rain amounts are concerned, they should be similar to today, but possibly an inch or so lower across the board. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 153 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 If you like the above, there`s plenty more of it in the extended range. Multiple shortwaves are expected to drop into the Southeast through next week and we`re forecast to remain in a moist environment south of the perpetual stationary boundary/trough. In short, a continuation of the high probability of rain but low timing/location predictability is expected. Generally though, storms should follow the typical diurnal trend. Pockets of heavy rain remain likely, but the details on amounts won`t become clearer until we enter the 36-48 hour window. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 136 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Showers and storms are expected area-wide again today. Confidence on precise timing and location is very low, but indications are that that the highest rain chances will be during the first half of the day across Miami-Dade county, then from PBI down the east coast later in the afternoon/evening. A few showers are also possible early this morning at PBI and APF. Generally, westerly background flow will prevail, though expected to be erratic in and around storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 153 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 A gentle southwesterly wind flow will remain in place across most of the local waters through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. These winds may occasionally become moderate across the Atlantic waters during this time frame. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the weekend. Locally hazardous winds and seas could develop in and around thunderstorm activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 89 77 88 77 / 90 70 70 40 West Kendall 88 75 88 77 / 100 70 80 40 Opa-Locka 90 76 89 77 / 90 60 80 40 Homestead 88 75 87 76 / 100 70 70 40 Fort Lauderdale 89 76 88 77 / 90 70 80 50 N Ft Lauderdale 90 77 89 77 / 80 70 80 50 Pembroke Pines 91 76 90 77 / 90 60 80 40 West Palm Beach 89 76 90 76 / 80 60 80 50 Boca Raton 90 75 90 76 / 90 60 80 50 Naples 90 77 89 79 / 80 70 70 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Harrigan LONG TERM....Harrigan AVIATION...Harrigan