170
FXUS62 KMFL 281059
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
659 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 657 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

 - Major coastal flooding is expected during high tide today, with
   moderate flooding into the end of this week. Inundated roadways
   are expected for coastal areas.

 - Marine and beach conditions will remain hazardous today, but
   improving conditions are expected for the end of this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

South Florida will remain on the periphery of a mid-level low
centered near the Bahamas that will begin to weaken and advect
northeastwards away from the area for the end of this week. A nearby
surface low is also analyzed early this morning that can provide
some extra forcing for ascent in the low-levels, but any convection
today will be capped as lapse rates are weak and mid-level temps are
several degrees above normal (500mb temps at -3 to -4 deg C). In
addition, an abundance of dry air is present on the latest ACARS
soundings and model soundings, which combined with a rebuilding
ridge heading into Thursday will further cap convective and
lightning potential. With the ridge amplifying and the low offshore
beginning to advect northeastward, the channel of strongest winds
will shift north of the South Florida forecast area and thus much
less windy conditions are expected through the period, but they are
likely to still be on the breezier side for today.

Overall, while some shallow isolated to scattered shower activity
along with very low-end chances for a thunderstorm or two.
Thunderstorms are unlikely with this atmospheric profile, but can
never rule out a single more robust updraft occurring that allows
for deep enough convection to spark a pulse storm. Regardless, from
a general weather perspective both today and tomorrow, concerns are
limited with no major hazards expected. High temperatures will rise
a few degrees as high pressure builds and more sunshine is possible,
so temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

This forecast features no tricks, but honestly, not too much in the
form of treats either as Halloween in South Florida is forecast to
be close to normal for this time of year. Warm daytime temperatures
will drop into the upper 70s to low 80s during the evening hours,
with a 30-50% chance of coastal showers along the east coast of
South Florida and a light but not spooky easterly breeze. But before
I haunt you any further with my forecast, let`s rewind back to the
beginning of the extended period.

The atmospheric reign of the cut-off low that has resided to our
east over the northwestern Bahamas and western Atlantic waters over
the last several days will finally conclude. While zonal mid-level
flow will prevail across much of the southeastern United States, a
developing mid-level ridge across the southern Gulf will slide
eastward during the second half of the week, resulting in increasing
geopotential heights, 500mb temperatures above the 90-95th
percentile, and a reduction in 500mb wind speeds out of the
northwest. At the surface, the weak area of surface low vorticity is
forecast continue to meander westward across the region,
increasingly decoupled from the departing cut-off low. An associated
frontal boundary, increasingly diffuse and meager in nature, will
also retrograde across the region during the second half of the
week. While this boundary will gradually degrade, the envelope of
deeper atmospheric moisture will remain across the region with
precipitable water values in the 80th-90th percentile forecast to
remain draped across the region. The pressure gradient that has kept
a persistent breeze across the region will finally abate with high
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across most of South Florida,
with even some low 90s possible across inland southwestern Florida
through the upcoming weekend. While winds will continue to lessen
across the region, there will be enough of an easterly wind
component to create a minor temperature gradient across the region
with the warmest overnight temperatures forecast along the east
coast and warmest daytime temperatures across inland southwestern
Florida as oceanic influences keep temperatures warmer overnight but
cooler during the day. Warm 500mb temperatures and ridging aloft
will keep convection fairly benign in nature through the first half
of the weekend with convection mainly focusing across inland
southwestern Florida on the confluence of a stronger Atlantic sea-
breeze and weaker Gulf breeze.

Mid-level ridging across our region is forecast to erode during the
second half of the weekend into early next week as a lobe of mid-
level vorticity slides eastward across the southeastern United
States in tandem with a developing surface low and frontal boundary.
Ample warm air and moisture advection is forecast to occur mainly to
the north of our region during this time frame, with the best
atmospheric dynamics and ascent over the northern half of the
Florida Peninsula and remainder of the southeastern United States.
That being said, a cooling of 500mb temperatures and a more
southerly component to surface winds could focus a higher chance of
convection across inland South Florida on Sunday as moisture lifts
northwards in the expansive warm sector of the system to our north.
Beyond early next week, ensemble and deterministic guidance have a
great variety of potential forecast solutions as the southern stream
remains active across the southern United States. In the near term
however, it looks like South Florida will have to wait longer for
the treat of a substantial cold front and pumpkin spice
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings this morning. NE winds around 5 kts early
this morning increasing slightly to 10-15 kts late morning through
the afternoon. Light and variable winds overnight. Scattered
showers possible throughout the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Conditions begin to improve today, but lingering Small Craft
Advisory conditions are expected into this evening and tonight
before tapering off across the Gulf and Atlantic waters. Northeast
winds at 20-25 kts in the Gulf and seas of 7-10 feet are expected in
the Gulf and Atlantic respectively into tonight before falling off.
Winds fall to moderate levels tomorrow while veering more easterly.
Conditions for the end of the week will become more calm. Isolated
to scattered shower activity remains likely as well at least for the
next few days.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A high risk of rip currents will persist for all Atlantic beaches
through today before tapering off for the Broward and Miami-Dade
beaches this evening. However, a high risk for rip currents will
continue through at least Thursday for the Palm Beaches. Surfing
conditions will also be improving today for the Palm Beaches, but
waves of 7-8 feet will still be possible through today which keeps
the High Surf Advisory in effect until tonight.

Furthermore, onshore wind flow and high seas combined with King
Tides will result in another day of increased coastal flooding risk
along the Atlantic coast. The tides could still reach major flood
stage again today, but then are expected to fall for the end of the
week. However, moderate flooding is still expected during periods of
high tide through at least Thursday or Friday, so a Coastal Flood
Advisory will take over for when the Warning expires.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            86  76  86  75 /  30  10  30  10
West Kendall     87  75  87  75 /  20  10  30  10
Opa-Locka        87  75  87  75 /  30  10  30  10
Homestead        87  75  87  75 /  20  10  30  10
Fort Lauderdale  84  75  85  75 /  30  20  30  20
N Ft Lauderdale  85  76  86  75 /  40  30  40  20
Pembroke Pines   87  75  87  74 /  30  20  30  10
West Palm Beach  84  75  85  74 /  40  30  30  20
Boca Raton       85  75  85  75 /  40  30  30  20
Naples           87  73  87  73 /  40  10  30   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Thursday for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ610-630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...CMF