719
FXUS62 KMFL 242250
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
650 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 649 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

 - Isolated to scattered showers today, with a few embedded
   storms. Any impacts are expected to be minor.

 - Hazardous marine and beach conditions are expected to develop
   for the end of this week and into this weekend.

 - Minor coastal flooding is possible this weekend along the
   Atlantic coast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 534 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Forecast remains on track this evening as a weak frontal boundary
continues to push south across the region. Isolated showers over
land will gradually dissipate by sunset, with scattered showers and
isolated storms remaining possible over the local waters
overnight (30-50% chance). The main concern heading into Friday
will be the deteriorating marine conditions along the Atlantic
coast as northerly winds and seas continue to build tonight behind
the front. Seasonable temperatures are expected overnight, with
lows ranging from the mid 70s along the coasts to the low 70s
across the interior.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

A weak frontal boundary that has been previously discussed the last
couple of days will work southwards today and eventually push
through the southern part of the forecast area on Friday. Dew points
are expected to initially fall into the low 70s with this weak
front, and winds will shift out of the north. As much drier mid-
level air arrives and overall PWATs fall back to near normal, much
less rain shower and thunderstorm activity is expected for the end
of this week. PoPs today peak at 40-50% across SW Florida and the
lake region before falling to 20-40% across all of South Florida on
Friday. In general, convection today should be very scattered and
less robust in nature as drier air advecting into the mid-levels
will provide some inhibition. Additionally, there is not expected to
be a localized flooding threat today due to that dry air arrival,
and because of any showers and storms moving rather quickly with
brisk northerly flow. A couple of stronger storms could produce some
heavier rainfall rates and stronger wind gusts, but otherwise
minimal impacts are to be expected for the end of this week.

High temperatures to end the week will be in the upper 80s to around
90, and overnight lows Thursday night will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Through this weekend, prevailing flow will be out of the north as a
developing nor`easter in the New England region stalls. The trough
axis associated with this system will extend southwards to the
western Atlantic waters off the Florida coast. Thus, South Florida
will remain in northerly flow pattern through the weekend and
this will keep drier air in the atmospheric column along with
inhibition of deep convection. While some positive vorticity
impulses will stream across the area and the diurnal sea breezes
will still form, these along may not be enough to overcome the
inhibition. Nevertheless, some air parcels will be capable of
lifting high enough to produce some isolated to scattered showers
or storms but they will not be overly strong. In general,
expecting convection to be of the weaker variety through Sunday.

By early next week, the system in the northeast US will shift more
northwards as a mid-to-upper level shortwave trough pushes across
the central US and deepens across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast
US regions. As this trough swings through the Florida Peninsula,
low level flow will shift back to a southeasterly direction and
result in the return of tropical moisture advection. With deeper
moisture arriving and this trough providing some upper level
forcing for ascent, rain chances will increase back to the 60-80%
range by Tuesday and into the middle of next week. Any potential
impacts will be assessed later on since this is at the end of the
forecast period and uncertainty is high.

High temperatures each day are still expected in the upper 80s to
around 90 each day for most areas. Overnight lows will be a few
degrees cooler with the front clearing the area, with lows near the
lake region in the mid 60s and the rest of the region seeing lows in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

A weak frontal passage will bring slightly elevated
winds overnight for most TAF sites, gradually increasing throughout
the day on Friday. Fluctuations between a primarily NNE to NNE flow
will persist overnight and through Friday across all terminals.
Uncertainty regarding significant wind gusts is moderate, with some
guidance suggesting a peak in about 20 kt gusts throughout Friday
afternoon/evening for all terminals. Low confidence on storm/shower
development has resulted in a tentative VCSH introduction across the
eastern terminals for late Friday afternoon. For APF, partly cloud
conditions and winds will prevail out of the NNE throughout Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 138 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Increasingly hazardous conditions are expected to arise late this
week. Winds today will become moderate to fresh out of a northerly
direction and continue into the weekend as a frontal boundary and
northerly swell move into the area. Winds are eventually expected to
reach around 20-25 kts In addition, seas are expected to rise to 7-
10 feet in the Atlantic beginning Thursday night. With these
conditions, Small Craft Advisories have been issued beginning late
Thursday night through Friday night.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 138 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

A high risk for rip currents is expected to return late tonight into
Friday and this weekend as an increasing northerly swell and brisk
northerly winds arrive. In addition, high surf is possible along the
Palm Beaches this weekend with big breaking waves of up to 7-8 feet.

Furthermore, a King Tide Cycle is expected this weekend that will be
enhanced by a full moon cycle. This may result in minor coastal
flooding along the Atlantic coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            75  88  73  87 /  10  40  10  30
West Kendall     75  88  72  87 /  10  40  10  30
Opa-Locka        75  88  72  87 /  20  40  10  30
Homestead        74  89  72  88 /  20  40  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  75  88  73  86 /  30  40  20  30
N Ft Lauderdale  75  88  73  87 /  30  40  20  30
Pembroke Pines   74  88  72  87 /  20  40  20  30
West Palm Beach  76  87  72  86 /  30  40  30  10
Boca Raton       75  87  72  86 /  30  40  20  20
Naples           73  88  70  87 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 2 AM EDT Friday through Saturday
     morning for FLZ168.

     High Surf Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for
     FLZ168.

     High Rip Current Risk from Friday afternoon through Saturday
     morning for FLZ172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for
     AMZ650-670.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for
     AMZ651-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DPB
SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...AEG