535
FXUS62 KMFL 060715
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
315 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 308 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

 - An active weather pattern remains in place through the weekend
   and into early next week as scattered to numerous showers and
   thunderstorms will develop each day. The strongest storms could
   contain heavy downpours and frequent lightning.

 - Heavy downpours with high rainfall rates combined with slow
   moving storms will increase the risk for localized flooding
   especially over the urban and poor drainage areas.

 - High temperatures will generally rise into the lower 90s across
   most of South Florida through early next week, creating
   widespread Moderate HeatRisk.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Mid/upper-level troughing continues to dig south over the Eastern
Seaboard into the western Atlantic today, pushing central CONUS
ridging further west. At the surface, South Florida sits between
high pressure over the Gulf and the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a
surface frontal boundary pressing into the Southeast U.S. will
continue to nudge the western Atlantic ridge axis southward. This
will result in a shifting wind pattern across South Florida today,
with light southeasterly flow veering to the south-southwest. Under
weak synoptic forcing aloft, convective activity will be once again
largely driven by sea-breeze and mesoscale boundaries, with the
Atlantic sea breeze remaining pinned closer to the East Coast.

Water vapor imagery confirms deep tropical moisture continuing to
pool across the region, with satellite-derived PWATs running above
normal at over 2.1 inches. However, both NBM and ensemble guidance
indicate the Gulf high will push slightly drier air into the Lake
Okeechobee region today, lowering PWATs closer to climatological
norms across the northern half of the peninsula. With ample moisture
still available, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
possible again today, primarily favoring areas south of I-75 where
moisture will remain maximized. Initial activity is expected to
develop over the Gulf waters and the southern tip of the peninsula
before shifting toward the interior and East Coast metro areas from
early afternoon through the evening. Rainfall accumulations of 1-2
inches are possible across Miami-Dade and Broward, where storm
development is expected to begin earlier in the afternoon, with
localized totals of 3-4 inches possible from slow-moving or training
cells. Urban flooding remains the primary hazard, alongside frequent
lightning and localized gusty winds.

A similar pattern persists into Monday as the mid/upper-level trough
lifts away and the surface frontal boundary stalls over northern
Florida. Deep tropical moisture will return region-wide, with south-
southwesterly flow focusing the highest shower and thunderstorm
coverage over the eastern half of the peninsula.

High temperatures will remain slightly above normal in the low 90s
across the region through the short term period. Overnight lows will
range from the upper 70s along the coasts to the low/mid 70s over
the interior. A moderate HeatRisk continues across all urban areas
each day, mitigated locally where afternoon storms bring temporary
relief.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Central CONUS upper-level ridging will build toward the U.S. East
Coast through midweek, while the stalled surface frontal boundary
over northern Florida gradually washes out. Tuesday will serve as a
transition day for South Florida as surface high pressure over the
western Atlantic builds back towards the peninsula, re-establishing
south-southeasterly steering flow. Model guidance remains in good
agreement that above-normal PWATs will persist across the region,
supporting a continued unsettled pattern through Tuesday. While
organized severe weather is not expected, abundant moisture will
support high rainfall rates and heavy downpours in stronger cells,
keeping localized urban and low-lying flooding as the primary
concern.

The western Atlantic high pressure is expected to re-establish full
control over the region by Wednesday, marking a return to a more
typical late-summer easterly flow regime. Drier air filtering into
the mid-levels will lower PWATs back toward seasonal norms, helping
keep overall convective coverage closer to average through Thursday.
Convective activity will remain sea-breeze and mesoscale driven,
with morning showers and isolated storms pushing across the East
Coast before focusing inland and over SW Florida through the
afternoon and early evening.

Another mid/upper-level trough and associated surface frontal
boundary will dig south along the Eastern Seaboard by the end of the
week, nudging the western Atlantic ridge axis southward once again.
Model guidance diverges on how far south this boundary will dig and
the impact it will have on local weather patterns. However, this
feature is expected to lift away quickly heading into the weekend.

High temperatures will rise into the lower 90s across most areas,
with mid-90s possible across interior SW Florida. Overnight lows
will range from the upper 70s/lower 80s along the coasts to the
low/mid 70s over the interior. Reduced convective coverage will
increase the probability of localized Major HeatRisk across the
urban corridors during the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR conditions are forecast into Sunday morning as light and
variable winds remain for all terminals. A southwesterly flow will
set up across all terminals into Sunday afternoon before a
significant shift southeasterly for eastern terminals due to the
seabreeze around 17-19Z. Uncertainty on where the seabreeze will
become pinned has resulted in low confidence for the timing and
location of the SE wind shift. Showers and storms will coincide with
the development and location of the Atlantic seabreeze. For APF, a
southwesterly wind will prevail. Light and variable winds will
return into the overnight hours for all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A light to gentle southeasterly breeze will turn south-
southwesterly today across all local waters and persist through the
early week. The exception to this will be across the Atlantic
waters, where winds may back southeasterly each afternoon as an
Atlantic sea breeze develops. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day across all local waters.
Locally hazardous winds and rough seas may occur near and around any
storm. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally
remain at 2 feet or less through the early portion of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  77  90  79 /  70  30  80  50
West Kendall     90  77  90  77 /  70  30  80  50
Opa-Locka        90  78  90  79 /  60  30  80  50
Homestead        90  77  90  77 /  70  40  80  50
Fort Lauderdale  90  79  90  77 /  50  30  70  60
N Ft Lauderdale  90  78  91  78 /  50  20  80  60
Pembroke Pines   90  79  90  77 /  60  30  80  60
West Palm Beach  92  76  92  76 /  50  20  80  50
Boca Raton       90  76  90  76 /  50  20  80  50
Naples           90  78  90  77 /  50  20  50  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM....DPB
AVIATION...CWC/AEG