836
FXUS62 KMFL 191734
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
134 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 129 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

 - Heat indices will range between 100-105 degrees today. While
   below advisory thresholds, dehydration can still occur with
   prolonged exposure.

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms today will primarily focus
   across inland and Southwest Florida. An isolated strong storm
   is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Taking a look at the latest GOES-R infrared and water vapor
satellite imagery, the upper-level low in the northeastern Gulf
waters is remaining rather stagnant as it is stuck between a ridge
off to the west and an elongated trough across the northeast US.
With this synoptic pattern, the low will struggle to propagate
further away from its current location in the near term. By Monday,
the low is expected to decrease in intensity while eventually
getting sucked up into the upper level troughing pattern across the
northeast US. The near surface circulation that the low pressure
area has begun to exhibit early this morning is likely to continue
through the next couple of days as well. In fact, latest ASCAT winds
appear to show a surface low pressure circulation due west of the
Tampa area. Overall, the National Hurricane Center currently gives
this area of low pressure a 60% chance to strengthen into a low-end
Tropical Cyclone within the next two days, but a worst case scenario
is viewed as this low becoming a Tropical Depression while it fades
out early in the week. No major impacts are expected to occur for
South Florida regardless of any partial enhancement of the low since
the low would weaken over AL/MS or Georgia.

In terms of the local weather regime in the short term, given the
pattern explained above there is not much change occurring. Thus, a
similar couple of days is expected to what occurred yesterday. Low
level flow will be out of the south-southeast due to circulation
around the low pressure in the northeast Gulf. The outer bands of
this circulation will reach the Gulf coast, which supports early
morning convection chances for Collier county and other Gulf coast
areas. Later in the day, some of these showers and storms will
spread closer to the east coast metro areas and likely some extra
convection will fire off the sea breeze circulations in the
afternoon. With the south-southeast prevailing flow, the Atlantic
breeze is not expected to advance very far inland either which could
set the stage for some late day convection along the east coast
metro areas. There is still a weak Saharan Air Layer present as
well, creating some dry pockets in the atmospheric column that could
support an isolated storm or two capable of producing strong wind
gusts to near marginally severe levels. This is an extremely
conditional case, but remains possible both today and again on
Monday.

Overall, minus the extremely low chance of a stronger storm core or
two forming today and Monday, no major hazards are expected. High
temperatures will begin to rebound back towards the mid 90s, which
might reach borderline Heat Advisory levels for Miami-Dade and
Broward. However, criteria will struggle to be reached as convection
and cloud cover likely enter the picture when this peak heating time
frame occurs. As a result, no Heat Advisory has been issued again
for today. Remaining well hydrated and taking cooling breaks when
possible is still highly advised given heat index values reaching
100-105 degrees today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

The extended period continues to be a lengthy period that lacks any
impactful synoptic features for South Florida when dissecting the
latest ensembles. Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic
will slowly attempt to expand back over the region, while an
amplified trough sits over the northeast US and a stout ridge sits
across the western US. Neither of the latter features are expected
to budge out of their positions until late in the week when
increased jet dynamics over the Midwest states cause a deepening of
the trough across the Atlantic coast. This may push a frontal
boundary southwards but it will not be able to advance further south
than the Northern Florida region. Therefore, the overall flow
pattern will be weak and result in the the primary convective
conductors being diurnal heating and the afternoon sea breezes.
Because of the weak flow aloft and near the surface, sea breezes
will be able to advance inland each day and result in highest PoPs
over inland/interior areas. Drier than normal air will be present in
the middle of the week while models are highlighting weak capping
inversions in the mid to late week period as well, which would
create a more stable environment that leads to less rain shower and
thunderstorm coverage. Thus, rain chances are currently much lower
than normal in the middle of the week (15-30%).

Looking ahead into the end of the week and next weekend, one feature
that has been identified that is worth monitoring trends for over
the next several days is a westward moving upper-level trough across
the Caribbean late in the week. If this feature enhances or shifts
in track at all, there would be potential for some increased rain
late in the week or into the weekend. Uncertainty remains high, but
we will be monitoring the potential.

Otherwise, with the likely lower amount shower and thunderstorm
coverage in the early and middle portions of next week, heat will be
the highest impactful concern as temperatures are forecast in the
mid to upper 90s each day. As a result, heat advisory potential will
be assessed daily. It is advised to continue to limit strenuous
outdoor activities and take action when you begin to experience
symptoms of heat exhaustion or heat stroke. For more on what you can
do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit ready.gov/heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
SSE winds will continue at 10 to 15 kts throughout the afternoon
across the east coast terminals with gusts of 20 to 25 kts.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop near the
terminals this afternoon before gradually diminishing as the
evening progresses. Winds could be erratic near thunderstorm
activity. At KAPF, SW winds of 10 to 15 kts will continue this
afternoon with gusts up to 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Moderate to fresh southerly to southeasterly winds are expected
today and into early this upcoming week across the local waters
as an area of low pressure sits in the northeast Gulf. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across all local
waters each day with higher chances for the Gulf waters. Seas
across the Gulf waters today and into the early week period are
projected between 2-4 feet with the Atlantic waters at 2 feet or
less. Brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds may accompany
any thunderstorms over the waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  93  81  93 /  10  30   0   0
West Kendall     78  94  78  94 /  10  30   0  10
Opa-Locka        80  95  80  95 /  10  30   0  10
Homestead        80  93  80  93 /  10  20   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  81  93  81  93 /  10  30  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  81  93  81  93 /  10  30  10  10
Pembroke Pines   82  95  81  95 /  10  30  10  10
West Palm Beach  79  93  79  93 /  10  40  10  10
Boca Raton       81  92  81  91 /  10  40  10  10
Naples           80  91  80  92 /  50  50  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...CWC