Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
840 FXUS62 KMFL 220538 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 138 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon and into the evening. A couple of stronger storms are possible that could produce marginally severe winds. - A slightly earlier convective start and slightly lower dew points is expected to allow most areas to avoid heat advisory criteria. Peak heat index values could still reach 105-110F for short durations. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 There has not been much change in the pattern evolution for this weekend. From a synoptic standpoint, the ridge in the Southwestern US continues to strengthen and allows for increased jet dynamics to strengthen the trough over the Eastern Seaboard. The base of the trough is still not expected to make it into South Florida and the overall flow pattern will remain largely on the weaker side, but this enhanced troughing pattern is expected to keep a prevailing southerly/south-southwesterly flow pattern in place through the weekend. Therefore, with deep moisture advection continuing and elevated PWATs of 1.7-2.0" or even more in some areas, diurnal heating and sea breeze circulations each day will have the necessary ingredients to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. With the primary south to south-southwest flow, this will favor interior and Southeast Florida for highest rain chances this weekend as showers and storms are expected to be the most widespread in these areas. The most robust activity will occur in the later afternoon during peak diurnal heating and once the sea breeze boundaries advance inland. Model soundings do highlight adequate SBCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg as well as inverted-V signatures and steep low level lapse rates leading to DCAPE values of 1000-1200 J/kg, so there will be an outside chance for an isolated severe storm or two via gusty winds again both days this weekend. Otherwise, the primary hazards will continue to be heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding in poor drainage areas, and sub-severe strong wind gusts. High temperatures this weekend will remain in the low to mid 90s. The deeper moisture will also keep dew points in the mid to upper 70s for most areas each day, thus maximum heat index values are anticipated to remain elevated up to the 105-110F range. With the expectation of some increased cloud cover and an earlier initiation time for convection to develop, have opted to not issue a Heat Advisory today, which will end the streak of 13 consecutive days with at least a portion of the region being under a Heat Advisory unless a short-fused one is issued later today. HREF probabilities highlight a 10-20% or less chance for heat indices to reach 105F or higher at any point of day, which is even lower for occurring over two or more consecutive hours. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 As the trough draped across the Eastern Seaboard starts to erode early next week, the local wind regime will start to shift back to what we typically see in the summer time here in South Florida with low level flow being dominated by the Atlantic sea breeze. This will cause diurnal convection to start focusing back over both the interior and Southwest Florida rather than Southeast Florida like has been observed recently. Starting Monday, the highest rain chances (60-80%) will begin to focus across Southwest Florida and this will last through the end of the long term period. Other than the rain potential, there is also potential for another Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to impact the area early next week, but guidance highlights this SAL breaking up upon it`s arrival and thus it`s influence on a return to hot conditions should be less than the previous round. The SAL could lower rain chances for a day or two, but with this being a thinner layer that clears out much faster, not expecting there to be any days with limited to no rainfall across the region. High temperatures are projected to remain in the low to mid 90s each day. Overnight lows range from the low 70s across the interior and lake regions to the upper 70s and low 80s along the coastal metros. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 VFR is expected for most of the period. Light winds from tonight increase after 16Z out of the southeast as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland. Shower and thunderstorm development may require short- fused AMDs and TEMPOs for some east coast terminals after 18-20Z. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the SW after 16Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Gentle west-southwest winds are expected across the Gulf waters this weekend with southeasterly winds across the Atlantic. Seas will remain at 1-2 feet or less each day across all local waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late each day and in the late night hours over the waters, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 94 79 93 80 / 30 20 60 10 West Kendall 94 77 92 79 / 40 20 70 10 Opa-Locka 94 79 93 79 / 40 10 60 10 Homestead 93 79 92 80 / 30 20 60 10 Fort Lauderdale 93 80 92 80 / 30 10 50 10 N Ft Lauderdale 93 80 93 80 / 30 10 50 10 Pembroke Pines 93 80 93 80 / 40 10 50 10 West Palm Beach 94 78 94 78 / 40 10 50 10 Boca Raton 92 79 92 79 / 30 10 50 10 Naples 91 79 91 78 / 20 10 40 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Redman