127
FXUS62 KMFL 111708
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1208 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1207 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

  - Dry and breezy weather will result in dangerous fire weather
    conditions across southwest Florida.

  - Near record low high temperatures are expected this afternoon.

  - Hazardous marine and beach conditions will continue through
    Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1207 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Depending on your mindset, todays temperatures are either
refreshingly beautiful or a nightmare! Strong high pressure building
in behind the cold front that crossed the area yesterday brought the
coolest air of the season to South FL. Low temps this morning ranged
from the mid and upper 30s west of the lake, to 40s across most of
the rest of South FL. ACARS soundings show PWAT values only 0.2-0.3
inches, which would easily be a record low for the date. Plenty of
sunshine expected this afternoon, although a stiff N/NW breeze will
keep things feeling chilly, especially in the shade. High temps this
afternoon will struggle to reach 60 around the lake, with mid and
upper 60s expected across the east coast metro. All climate
locations have a fairly good shot at breaking their record low max
temps today.

Besides the cool temps, extremely low RH values (20-30%) over the
interior and SW FL this afternoon, combined with ongoing drought
conditions and breezy winds, will result in dangerous fire weather
conditions today. A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 4 PM this
afternoon for Glades, Hendry, Collier, and Mainland Monroe.

As high pressure begins to shift to the east this afternoon into
tonight, winds will become more N/NE. This will gradually allow RH
values to increase across the metro and with a fetch coming in off
the Atlantic, will result in warmer overnight temps tonight, albeit
still below normal. Went a little below the NBM west of the lake
tonight where lighter winds and clear skies should result in
excellent radiational cooling. Overnight lows will range from the
lower 40s west of the lake, to upper 50s across the east coast
metro.

With more of a pure NE wind on Wednesday as the surface high
continues to shift to the east, warmer conditions are expected
across South FL despite an increase in cloud cover across the east
coast metro. High temps will remain below normal but should reach
the lower 70s north of Alligator Alley, and mid to upper 70s over
the far southern peninsula.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 115 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

The longwave pattern will amplify mid to late week as shortwaves
move through the Great Lakes and Northeast, and a final shortwave
moves through the Mid-Atlantic. This will place the local area
between the trof/ridge axes to finish the week, with the longwave
ridge moving into the Southeast over the weekend. At the surface,
high pressure will generally be rather stationary, resulting in a
prolonged period of ENE flow. Temperatures will climb back to
seasonal normals, and then transition to above normal by the
weekend. No rain is forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR through the period. Breezy NNW winds will subside this evening
and gradually become NNE overnight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 115 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Strong Advisory-level conditions will continue through today in the
wake of a cold front as high pressure builds across the Gulf and
Atlantic waters. While winds will begin to subside Tuesday night as
the calm center of high pressure starts to spread across Florida, it
will take through Wednesday for seas to calm below headline levels.
From mid-week onward, winds will hold in the 10-15 knot range with
seas around 2-4 feet.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 115 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

A high risk of rip currents remains in effect along both coasts
today as longshore currents remain strong and surf remains
elevated.

A high surf advisory will also remain in effect for all Palm
Beaches as a large northerly swell scrapes the Palm Beach coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 115 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

A cold and dry airmass has spread across south Florida behind a
strong cold front. In addition, winds remain elevated with frequent
gusts as high pressure builds in across the Southeast. The SPC has
outlooked southwest Florida in an `Elevated` fire weather concern
area on Tuesday, with a Moderate risk Fire Potential forecast also
in place. Also something to consider is the ongoing D0 drought
across portions of southwest Florida. Given the above and the fact
that relative humidity levels will be well into critical levels, and
the not insignificant ensemble probabilities of winds exceeding 15
mph, a Red Flag warning will be in effect today for SW FL. After
today, relative humidity levels will climb out of critical levels
and winds will calm a bit, lowering the fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            60  76  65  78 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     55  77  61  79 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        59  77  64  80 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        59  76  65  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  61  75  65  77 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  60  76  65  77 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   60  78  64  81 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  59  75  62  77 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       60  76  63  79 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           50  77  57  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for FLZ069-075.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ069.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ610.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....Harrigan
AVIATION...CMF