023
FXUS62 KMFL 161903
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
303 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Latest ensemble guidance, along with sfc analyses, still depict a
continuing summer synoptic pattern across the region with
persisting broad sfc high pressure ridging over the west Atlantic
and the Florida peninsula. Aloft, models also keep in place high
pressure for the next several days, along with warming 500mb temps
to around -5C. HighRes models and latest ACARs continue to depict
some additional drier air entraining into the mid levels through
the next couple of days. However, MFL 00Z sounding and short term
model solutions insist in keeping enough atmospheric moisture in
place to continuing supporting rounds of scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon. But the lack of adequate dynamic
support, warmer temps aloft and drier air entrainment will result
in limited favorable conditions for strong storms to develop.
Can`t rule out a couple of strong cells at times, but most
thunderstorms should remain relatively weak.

Latest CAM/LPMM do not suggest afternoon thunderstorm activity
lingering into the nighttime hours. However, some early evening
showers and isolated thunderstorms could still develop.
interior/western half of SoFlo. Models also keep generally SE/ESE
flow in place through mid week, resulting in having best chances for
rain and storms over interior and west coast areas as the east coast
sea breeze is able to penetrate further inland. For the overnight
hours, expect some quick-passing coastal showers to again develop at
times through Tuesday morning.

Similar weather conditions continue for the rest of Tuesday with
generally scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms still
favoring interior and western areas. Expect again sea breeze
boundaries and outflow boundary collisions to become focal points
for deeper convection. Main hazards associated with thunderstorm
activity will be damaging gusty winds, lightning strikes, and
localized heavy rain.

Tuesday`s afternoon temperatures will remain above normals, with
highs generally in the low 90s. Heat index values may hit the low
100s at times, especially over inland areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

GFS/EURO long range guidance show sfc ridging dominating the west
Atlantic, with its ridge axis extending into the central portions of
the Florida peninsula through much of the work week, Meanwhile, high
pressure seems to also remain in place aloft. Latest SAL prognosis
suggests the possibility of having enough weakening of the Atlantic
ridge, which may allow for some additional dust to make it all the
way into the area by the end of the work week. If this scenario
materializes, then adjustments to POPs/Wx coverage will be made as
necessary. Latest model soundings continue to show a very modest
increase in atmospheric moisture for the second part of the work
week, with a typical summer weather pattern of sea breeze
circulations becoming the main mechanism for deep
convection/thunderstorms each afternoon. In addition, early morning
coastal showers will also continue, embedded in the synoptic ESE
flow each day.

For the upcoming weekend, model agreement remains poor regarding a
possible upper level disturbance approaching the area from the
Bahamas. Therefore, will wait for persistence and better consensus
in the models before incorporating significant changes to the
POPs/Wx grids for the weekend weather.

Above normal temps are expected to continue across SoFlo, with
afternoon highs in the low-mid 90s inland, and upper 80s to low 90s
near the coasts. Overnight lows will likely remain in the low 70s
inland, and in the upper 70s to around 80 across near the coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR expected to prevail through the TAF period with generally SE
winds in the 8-10kt tonight, then possible gusty periods Tuesday
afternoon. Low chances for showers to develop around KAPF through
00Z, so included mention of VCTS for this afternoon. Gulf breeze
will also develop at KAPF this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

SE winds in the 8-12kt range will continue through much of the
forecast period as high pressure remains in control of the west
Atlantic. Any thunderstorm that forms may produce periods of gusty
winds and rough seas. Outside of convection, seas in the Atlantic
1- 3 ft, and seas in the Gulf 2 ft or less.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Rip current risk will remain moderate across all Atlantic beaches
through at least mid week as ESE flow persists.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  90  80  89 /  10  30  20  50
West Kendall     76  90  76  90 /  10  40  20  50
Opa-Locka        80  92  80  92 /  10  30  20  50
Homestead        79  89  79  89 /  20  30  30  50
Fort Lauderdale  80  89  80  89 /  10  30  20  50
N Ft Lauderdale  79  89  80  89 /  10  30  20  50
Pembroke Pines   82  93  82  93 /  10  30  10  50
West Palm Beach  79  90  79  90 /  10  30  10  40
Boca Raton       79  90  79  91 /  10  30  10  40
Naples           74  91  74  92 /  40  50  40  80

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17