299
FXUS62 KMFL 202301
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
701 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 659 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

 - Tropical Depression Two remains nearly stationary in the
   northeastern Gulf. This system will have no direct impacts to
   South Florida as it will be moving west-northwestward away from
   the area early this week.

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to focus
   across northern portions and interior portions of the region
   through early this evening. A strong thunderstorm or two
   cannot be ruled out containing gusty winds and heavy downpours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Some drier air has started to work into the mid to upper levels of
the atmospheric column this afternoon as PWAT values have started
to fall and generally range between 1.6 and 1.8 inches with the
higher amounts up near the Lake Okeechobee region. As the
pressure gradient still remains tight across South Florida, the
breezy and gusty southerly wind flow will continue through the
rest of this afternoon and into the evening hours before gradually
diminishing overnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop this afternoon concentrating over the Lake
Okeechobee region where the highest PWATs are currently located.
These storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy
downpours.

Additional drier air will advect into the region tonight into
Tuesday. This will help to limit convection especially on Tuesday,
however, it will not eliminate it completely. Any shower or
thunderstorm activity that does develop will be sea breeze driven
and will be confined to the interior where the sea breeze
boundaries and other mesoscale boundaries interact with each
other. With the coverage of convection being limited on Tuesday,
heat will remain a concern as high temperatures rise into the
lower 90s across across the east coast metro areas, and into the
mid to upper 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
Peak heat index values will generally range between 103 and 108
across most of the region on Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Tropical Depression Two continues to circulate in the northeastern
Gulf and is expected to slowly drift west-northwest early this week.
Currently, the system is blocked by a combination of features
including a ridge to its west, another ridge over the western
Atlantic and a broad trough to its north across the Midwest and Mid-
Atlantic regions. The ridge over the central and western U.S. is
anticipated to strengthen a bit more in the short term which should
allow it to become the primary steering feature for Tropical
Depression Two. The system currently is expected to reach Tropical
Storm strength later today, but will not pose any hazardous weather
concerns for South Florida.

With this lingering pattern ahead of the tropical system progressing
westward Monday night into Tuesday, more rinse and repeat weather is
expected today with the outer edges of Tropical Depression Nine`s
circulation reaching the South Florida region, which will provide
some forcing for ascent. Additional forcing will be provided by the
sea breeze circulations and eventually should result in most of the
activity developing over the interior and closer to Lake Okeechobee
with a prevailing southerly flow. We will still see some scattered
showers and storms near the coasts early this morning and perhaps
again late in the day as outflow boundaries spark extra development.
Storms today are not expected to become severe, but there will be an
outside chance for an isolated severe storm via strong wind gusts as
a lingering weak concentration of Saharan Dust creates some low-
level and mid-level dry air along with inverted-V soundings. If any
air parcels can take advantage of the unstable environment (SBCAPE
3000-4000 J/kg and MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg), rain-cooled air in this
dry layer can downburst as stronger wind gusts. Most gusts will be
sub-severe, but overall can`t rule out an isolated severe gust
occurrence given the parameters in place.

Heading into Tuesday, as the system in the Gulf pushes further
westward we are expecting to see some drier air filter into the area
with guidance hinting at PWATs falling to the 1.2-1.4" range. This
would be below the 10th percentile for this time of year and an
overall much drier atmospheric column across South Florida. The end
result is expected to be drier weather with limited spatial coverage
of showers and storms in the isolated to widely scattered variety.
Most activity should develop over interior areas also as the sea
breezes move inland during the afternoon hours.

With some drier conditions arising early this week, concerns for
excessive heat will increase. High temperatures today and tomorrow
are expected in the low to mid 90s. Therefore, with dew points in
the mid to upper 70s and less shower and storm coverage mainly in
Broward and Miami-Dade, a Heat Advisory has been issued for Miami-
Dade and Broward counties. Max heat index values are projected in
the 104-108F range today with major HeatRisk forecast across these
areas. All other South Florida zones should avoid advisory criteria
today as showers and storms provide some cooling relief, but peak
heat index values will still likely reach the low 100s with moderate
to major HeatRisk. On Tuesday, highs are expected to rise into the
mid 90s for most areas and possibly the upper 90s for some interior
locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The mid to late week period this week maintains a mid-level and
upper-level trough across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. while
surface high pressure expands back over the region through the Wed-
Thu time frame. The previously mentioned drier air mass is also
likely to linger through this time period, which will keep rain
chances lower and mostly in the 20-40% range. Highest chances will
be over Southwest Florida as easterly flow becomes re-established
for Wednesday and Thursday with the surface high expanding back over
the area.

By late Thursday and heading into Friday, guidance continues to
track a westward moving trough that could exhibit some weak tropical
characteristics. Nevertheless, ensembles and most individual members
exhibit this trough maintaining a weaker form with no identified
near-surface circulation while either getting shredded apart or
sucked into the trough pattern over the Mid-Atlantic. As a result,
no major concerns are currently expected even if the system pushes
across the Florida Straits or far southern Florida like some of the
deterministic data suggests. Uncertainty still remains high, but at
minimum PWATs are anticipated to rise back towards climatological
norms by late Thursday through Friday and next weekend, which will
lead to rising rain chances. Highest chances each day are likely
over interior regions as this will be where the sea breezes and
other boundaries collide.

Heat will be the other concern as temperatures are forecast in the
mid to upper 90s each day through the end of this week along with
drier conditions through at least Wednesday and most of Thursday. As
a result, heat advisories may become necessary each day. Regardless
if an advisory is issued or not, it is advised to continue to limit
strenuous outdoor activities and take action when you begin to
experience symptoms of heat exhaustion or heat stroke because
temperatures and heat index values will still be elevated.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected overnight with SE winds 5-10 kts.
Winds increase again after 14Z to 10-15 kts with gusts around 20
kts. APF will go SSW during the afternoon hours. Any convection on
Tuesday should remain over inland locations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

A moderate to fresh south-southeasterly wind flow will remain in
place across the local waters early this week as Tropical Depression
Two meanders in the northeastern Gulf. These winds are expected to
reach hazardous levels through tonight across portions of the
Gulf waters at 20-25 kts. Seas across the Gulf waters will range
from 2 to 4 feet with the Atlantic at 2 feet or less. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across all local waters
during this time frame.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

A moderate risk for rip currents exists for the Collier beaches
today as a disturbance in the Gulf results in increased winds across
the area. This risk may last through Tuesday before dropping off.
Similarly, a moderate risk also exists for the Palm beaches today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  93  80  93 /   0   0  20  20
West Kendall     77  93  77  94 /   0   0  10  20
Opa-Locka        80  94  80  95 /   0   0  20  20
Homestead        80  93  79  93 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  82  92  81  92 /  10   0  20  10
N Ft Lauderdale  81  93  81  93 /  10  10  20  20
Pembroke Pines   82  95  81  95 /   0   0  20  20
West Palm Beach  79  93  79  93 /  10   0  20  20
Boca Raton       81  91  80  91 /  10  10  20  20
Naples           80  92  77  92 /  20  10   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for GMZ656-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...CMF