504
FXUS62 KMFL 020557
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
157 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

 - Dangerous marine and beach conditions continue through the rest
   of the week and into the weekend. Life-threatening rip
   currents, high surf with the potential for 6-9 foot breaking
   waves, and beach erosion expected.

 - A more active weather pattern develops late this week and will
   last through the weekend.

 - Heavy downpours with enhanced rainfall rates will be possible
   on Thursday and Friday which could lead to the potential for
   localized flooding along the east coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

An active pattern begins to set up for South Florida today as breezy
ENE winds near the surface continue to sustain moisture advection
over the region, and an upper level trough is forecast to slide
eastward across the Florida peninsula. The combination of these
factors will help support scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing throughout the day today, generally moving south-
southwest. Some of these storms could bring heavy rain and gusty
winds, and localized street flooding could be possible with any
heavy downpours. Portions of the Palm Beach and Broward county
metro areas will be under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of
excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding today.

The trough will eventually open up as it moves over the Atlantic
late tonight, but conditions are forecast to remain unsettled as
guidance shows a mid-level low potentially developing over the
Bahamas. This would help enhance rainfall chances and coverage
overnight and into Friday, especially for areas along the
immediate coast, and over the local Atlantic waters. The 00Z HREF
24-hour precip probabilities capture this scenario pretty well,
with a handful of spots along the East Coast showing 40-50% chance
of exceeding 2" of rain, and a few even showing 30-40% of
exceeding 4 inches over the same time period. To that effect, WPC
has placed southeast FL under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for
excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding.

Slightly lower temperatures forecast through the short term period
given greater cloud coverage and convective activity. Highs will top
out in the upper 80s and low 90s, while overnight lows will stay in
the low to mid 70s across the whole area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

By Saturday, the aforementioned mid-level low is forecast to begin
lifting northward, but it`s influence will still be felt across
South Florida, where conditions will remain wet and unsettled
through the weekend. Rounds of scattered to numerous showers and a
few thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon, with POPs in the
50-70% range. Best chances are forecast to be constrained north of
Alligator Alley.

Surface high will being to build across the area early next week,
signaling a return to the more routine summertime regime of easterly
winds and afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the interior and
southwest.

High temperatures through the extended period will generally
reach the low 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid 70s across
the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions will be likely through the period
as repeated rounds of SHRA move along the East Coast today. Breezy
easterly-northeasterly winds will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

A moderate northeasterly breeze is expected across the local waters
for the rest of the week. Hazardous seas are expected to continue
for the Atlantic waters over the next few days as ongoing swell
continues behind Hurricane Imelda. Seas will range from 6-9 feet
today and are expected to rise further for Friday and this weekend.
Additionally, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic
waters and the northern Gulf waters through late Friday night.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Fresh onshore flow and elevated swell behind Hurricane Imelda will
result in a high risk of rip currents and high surf heights (for
Palm Beach county beaches) through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            88  75  85  75 /  70  60  70  60
West Kendall     88  75  85  74 /  70  50  70  50
Opa-Locka        88  75  85  75 /  70  60  70  60
Homestead        87  75  85  75 /  60  50  70  60
Fort Lauderdale  86  75  84  75 /  70  70  70  60
N Ft Lauderdale  87  75  84  75 /  70  70  70  60
Pembroke Pines   88  75  87  76 /  70  60  70  60
West Palm Beach  85  75  84  75 /  80  70  70  60
Boca Raton       87  74  85  75 /  70  70  70  60
Naples           90  74  88  74 /  80  40  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-670.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ651-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday
     for GMZ656-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...ATV