206
FXUS62 KMFL 181113
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
713 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 704 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

 - Record heat possible today and Wednesday. A Heat Advisory is in
   effect for all of South FL today with heat indices of 105-112
   expected.

 - Unseasonably low RH values are expected over interior South FL
   today which may result in an elevated fire risk.

 - Moderate risk of rip currents today for Collier county beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 105 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

So you`re telling me there`s a chance! More on that later...

Record breaking heat is likely across much of South FL today,
especially the east coast metro. Surface high pressure remains in
control with upper level ridging across the region. In addition,
Saharan dust will remain across South FL today. A frontal boundary
will slide south from the TN Valley towards the SE US coast by late
in the day. This will help push some moisture down the peninsula
which may touch off some late day thunderstorms around the lake
region. Otherwise, the rest of the area will be hot and dry again
today. The east coast sea-breeze will struggle to make much of a
push inland today, so westerly flow will be observed over much of
South FL. This will allow temps to soar well into the 90s again this
afternoon, with high temps in the low to mid 90s along the Collier
coast, to upper 90s over the rest of South FL. Record high temps are
highly likely today at MIA/FLL/DJT. Heat indices will easily get
to 105-112 this afternoon, so another Heat Advisory will be in
place from 11 AM to 7 PM.

Now to explain the first sentence above: Miami has only reached 100
degrees once, on July 21st 1942. The high temp today should easily
reach the mid to upper 90s. According to the latest NBM probs,
the Miami Airport has roughly a 10 percent chance of reaching 100
degrees today. So it`s going to be very close...there is a chance!

On Wednesday, upper level ridging starts to weaken across the region
as a trough starts to build into the eastern US. A mid and upper
level weak low will also develop over the northeastern Gulf. The
higher Saharan dust concentrations will finally get shunted to our
south, and low level moisture will increase across the area. For the
first time in awhile, seasonably normal PoPs (50-70%) will return to
the forecast with scattered thunderstorms expected during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Will need to watch the east coast
sea breeze as it will likely become pinned across the metro. This
may result in a few instances of urban and poor drainage flooding,
especially if multiple storms pass over the same area. High temps on
Wednesday will again approach records, with mid to upper 90s
expected. Additional heat headlines will likely be needed as max
heat indices again climb to 105-110.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 105 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

The upper level trough will become entrenched over the eastern half
of the US through the rest of the week and through the upcoming
weekend. The weak mid/upper level low may also meander in the
northeastern Gulf through the end of the week. Overall, a more
typical summertime pattern will be in place for South FL with
diurnally driven thunderstorms during the afternoon and early
evening hours, and isolated coastal showers overnight.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the extended period.
Heat indices are likely to continue approaching Advisory criteria
each day, so additional heat headlines will remain possible
throughout the rest of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

VFR expected to continue during the next 24 hours at all
terminals. L/V flow shifts briefly NW around 15Z, then SSE 8-10kt.
Westerly flow is again expected at APF with afternoon Gulf
breezes. L/V flow returns after 00-01Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Moderate to fresh westerly winds are expected today across the Gulf
waters, with moderate southerly winds across the Atlantic. Seas
generally 2 ft or less today.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

A moderate onshore flow will result in an elevated risk of rip
currents today for Collier county beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Hot and mostly dry weather is expected to continue today. Min RH
values over the southern Everglades will fall into the mid to upper
30 percent range this afternoon, with RH values in the 40-45 percent
range over the rest of interior South FL. Given the unseasonably low
RH values and ongoing drought conditions, there will be an elevated
fire risk today.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Record high temperatures are possible today and Wednesday. Here are the
current records for Tuesday and Wednesday:

       TUE(YEAR)  WED(YEAR)

MIA    96 (2022)  96 (1909)
FLL    98 (1921)  97 (1952)
DJT    96 (2022)  97 (1938)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            98  80  97  80 /  10  10  50  20
West Kendall     99  78  97  79 /  10   0  50  20
Opa-Locka        99  81  98  81 /  10  10  50  20
Homestead        98  77  97  78 /  10   0  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  97  80  95  81 /  10  10  50  20
N Ft Lauderdale  98  80  97  81 /  10  10  50  20
Pembroke Pines   99  80  97  81 /  10  10  50  20
West Palm Beach  98  80  96  79 /  10  20  60  20
Boca Raton       96  79  94  80 /  10  20  50  20
Naples           92  80  92  80 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...17