996
FXUS62 KMFL 161126
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
726 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1229 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

With the axis of stout mid-level ridging entrenched across Central
Florida this morning in conjunction with continued surface ridging,
a rinse and repeat weather pattern will continue to prevail across
South Florida each day. During the overnight hours through late
morning, light southeasterly surface winds will continue to usher in
warm air advection (WAA) from the nearby warm Gulf Stream waters,
acting to keep temperatures along the east coast of South Florida
warm and muggy in the upper 70s to low 80s through daybreak. Greater
instability over these very warm nearshore waters will also allow
for enough low level boundary moisture to support continued isolated
shower activity along the east coast of South Florida through the
late morning hours. Looking higher up in the atmospheric column, the
earlier 18z and 00z upper air sounding from WFO Miami as well as
recent 4z ACARS data from SoFlo area airports still indicate that
copious amounts of residual dry air still remains in place across
the region. This in theory should act to keep nocturnal and diurnal
convection shallow in nature and limited in overall spatial scope.

With the lack of synoptic flow aloft directly underneath the mid-
level ridge, mesoscale circulations will once again influence the
prevailing weather pattern across the area, aided slightly by light
southeasterly background flow. This aforementioned flow will allow
for the continued isolated shower activity along the east coast
overnight and each morning before pushing inland and increasing in
coverage across our inland and southwestern Florida locales during
the afternoon and evening hours. Given the lack of shear and
kinematic dynamics (500mb temperatures of -5C to -6C, lapse rates of
5.0 to 5.5 C/km) combined with ample mid-level dry air, convection
will be fairly benign in nature outside of lightning strikes and
locally heavy rainfall.

High temperatures will remain slightly above seasonal norms today
and tomorrow as cloud cover remains fairly sparse during the
afternoon hours. Forecast temps this afternoon and once again on
Tuesday afternoon will be mainly in the low 90s outside of locations
directly along the east coast of South Florida in the upper 80s.
Heat indices could reach the low 100s at times, especially across
inland locales across the region during the 10am to 4pm timeframe.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1229 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The status quo of surface and mid-level ridging will prevail into
the middle portion of the work-week with shower activity peaking
along the east coast of the region during the morning hours before
focusing each afternoon and evening across the western half of
SoFlo. Interestingly, the latest run of NASA`s Dust Aerosol Optical
Thickness model shows that a slight weakening of the surface ridge
across the western Atlantic waters may allow for some light
concentrations of Saharan Dust to lift northwards into the region
during the mid to late portion of the work week. It remains to be
seen however if this will have any influence on rain chances as the
forecasted plume appears quite diluted in nature. Temperatures will
remain mainly in the low 90s during this period with heat indices
in the upper 90s to low 100s, especially across inland areas that
are away from the moderating influences of the ocean.

The latest deterministic GFS and European models continue to hint at
the potential of an inverted trough/TUTT propagating westward across
or near the Greater Antilles during the second half of the work
week. While it remains to be seen if this feature will actually
materialize (and track close enough to South Florida to influence
our local weather), it could help finally erode persistent mid-level
ridging established across the region and bring cooler temperatures
aloft (-9C to -10C, steeper low and mid level lapse rates) that may
support more robust convection both during nocturnal and diurnal
hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR through the period with southeasterly winds prevailing.
Low chances for storms inland of the East Coast sites, could have
impacts at KAPF, so included mention of VCTS for this afternoon.
Gulf breeze will also work in at KAPF this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1229 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Moderate southeasterly winds during the day expected through mid-
week as high pressure continues to sit over the western Atlantic
waters. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain
possible each day, which may result in locally hazardous winds and
seas. Outside of convection, seas over the next several days
generally 2 ft or less.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1229 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Rip current risks will remain elevated along the Atlantic coast as
onshore winds remain with us for the remainder of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  80  89  80 /  20  10  30  20
West Kendall     90  76  91  76 /  20  10  40  20
Opa-Locka        92  80  92  80 /  20  10  30  20
Homestead        89  78  89  78 /  20  10  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  89  80  89  80 /  20  10  30  20
N Ft Lauderdale  89  80  89  80 /  20  10  30  20
Pembroke Pines   93  81  94  81 /  20  10  30  20
West Palm Beach  90  79  90  78 /  20  10  30  20
Boca Raton       91  79  91  79 /  20  10  30  20
Naples           90  75  91  75 /  50  30  60  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...ATV