513
FXUS66 KMFR 080549
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
949 PM PST Fri Nov 7 2025

.DISCUSSION...Updated marine and aviation discussions.


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.AVIATION...08/06Z TAFs...With all the moisture of the last few days
and high pressure settling in tonight into Saturday morning, the
pattern will favor strong inversions and result in areas of valley
LIFR/IFR stratus and/or fog. These lower conditions will break to
VFR late Saturday morning/early Saturday afternoon. -Spilde

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.MARINE...Updated 900 PM PDT Friday, November 7, 2025...Gradually
improving conditions are expected through the weekend. Seas will
remain high and steep overnight (10-13 feet at 13 seconds) into
early Saturday, then lower below advisory levels. Sub-advisory
conditions are expected the rest of the weekend into Monday with
winds turning northerly on Monday. North winds could approach
advisory strength south of Cape Blanco late Monday into Tuesday,
but more impactful winds and weather are expected to return
Wednesday, with gusty winds and high to very high and steep to
very steep seas possible through Friday. /BR-y/Spilde

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 PM PST Fri Nov 7 2025/

DISCUSSION...Updated aviation section.

AVIATION...08/00Z TAFs...With all the moisture of the last few
days and high pressure settling in tonight into Saturday morning,
the pattern will favor strong inversions and result in areas of
valley LIFR/IFR stratus and/or fog. These lower conditions will
break to VFR late Saturday morning/early Saturday afternoon. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 213 PM PST Fri Nov 7 2025/

DISCUSSION...Fog and lower ceilings have lifted and clearing
skies are coming for the afternoon. Highs are warming to near
normal this afternoon with near 50 east of the Cascades and more
50s to near 60 west. A few factors will bring another night of fog
tonight. First, there is still ample moisture from our systems
this week. The transition to ridging with clearing skies will be
another aid to the fog with temperatures dropping to the coldest
we`re expecting in the next few days with 20s to low 30s east and
30s/low 40s west. Forecast soundings show inversions developing as
soon as 8 PM tonight for Roseburg and 10 PM for the Rogue Valley.
More locations west of the Cascades, including in the Rogue
Valley, will also see these low clouds and fog overnight. This
could also be a time where better burning of the fog would not
occur until later Saturday morning. However, after there will be
mostly clear skies again. There will be enough sunshine to expect
temperatures to warm to 5 to 15 degrees above normal, meaning
mid-/upper 50s east, 60s west and near 70 at the coast. Fog will
be found again Saturday night.

The ridge will be strongest on Sunday, and this is when we`ll find
the warmest temperatures as well. Temperatures in the mid-60s east
and near 70 west will be ahead Sunday afternoon. Cloudier skies will
come in Sunday night, and this will keep low temperatures 5 to 15
degrees above normal.

There will be a weak front that moves in early next week, but these
rain chances Monday into Tuesday are forecast to stay offshore, with
the exception of a stray shower in Coos County. The next chance for
more activity will begin next Thursday. Meteorograms are favoring
for this to be the beginning of the system, but it is still to be
determined when it ends. There are differences with how the lows are
handled as they move south, so this will still bear watching. Still,
there are precipitation chances and increased winds east of the
Cascades and in the Shasta Valley with southerly winds Wednesday
night into Thursday ahead of this front in the forecast. -9

AVIATION...07/18Z TAFs...IFR and LIFR conditions are improving in
the Rogue Valley and along the coast including at North Bend. The
Umpqua Basin still has LIFR ceilings and satellite shows this is not
breaking up yet. The last of the IFR/LIFR ceilings west of the
Cascades is expected to lift by the early afternoon. There are a few
leftover showers that will taper off by noon (20Z), and clearer
skies will come through the afternoon. A more typical pattern of
ridging follows late tonight into Saturday morning. This pattern
will bring strong inversions and will result in areas of valley
LIFR/IFR mainly west of the Cascades.

MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Friday, November 7, 2025...Compared to
earlier this week, relatively quiet conditions are expected through
the weekend as high pressure builds in and winds remain below
advisory criteria. Seas this afternoon remain high and steep at
roughly 14 to 16 ft at 12 to 14 seconds, but are occasionally and
briefly reaching very steep heights of 17 to 19 ft. Considering the
overall trend is for diminishing seas, will maintain the Small Craft
Advisory despite the brief periods of steep seas.

Seas will gradually diminish into Saturday morning, and are expected
to fall below advisory criteria by the afternoon then persist into
Sunday. Winds briefly turn southerly late Saturday into Sunday, then
back to northerly on Monday. North winds could approach advisory
strength south of Cape Blanco late Monday into Tuesday, but more
impactful winds and weather are expected to return Wednesday, with
gusty winds and high to very high and steep to very steep seas
possible through Friday. /BR-y

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for ORZ023-024-026-
     028-029.

CA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for CAZ080-081-084-
     085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PST Saturday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$

MAS/MAS/MAS