259
FXUS66 KMFR 242055
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
155 PM PDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A weak upper ridge will bring warmer temperatures today, with
  dry overnight flow over area peaks and ridgelines into early
  Sunday morning.

* A cold front arrives Sunday into Monday, with breezy winds and
  widespread precipitation chances.

* Snow levels will remain high enough to prevent winter impacts,
  but an inch or two of snow is possible over the higher Cascade
  passes Monday.

* Showers linger into Tuesday. Then, additional systems are
  possible through the week, although signals for hazardous
  conditions are not currently present in guidance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...It was a cool morning across southern Oregon and
far northern California, but with high pressure building overhead
and mostly clear skies, it has turned into a mild fall day. Some
high based cirrus clouds have started moving in overhead this
afternoon, and these are the first signs of the next front that is
expected to arrive in our area tomorrow.

Well offshore, west of British Columbia, satellite imagery shows a
massive swirl of clouds making its way slowly but surely towards
the Pacific Northwest. The center of this low will continue to
trek our way, arriving just offshore of the mouth of the Columbia
River by Sunday evening before pushing onshore somewhere along the
northern Oregon coast by Monday morning. This will push a cold
front through our forecast area Sunday night through Monday
morning. South winds will increase ahead of the front, arriving at
the coast by Sunday morning, followed shortly behind by rain
around midday or early afternoon. The winds and rain will then
push west to east across the area through the rest of Sunday and
Sunday night. The band of pre-frontal rain is expected to only
impact areas along and west of the Cascades before falling apart
Sunday night, but then as the upper level trough passes overhead,
shower chances spread to the entire area by late Monday morning.
Showers then continue into Tuesday as a second, weaker upper level
trough swings overhead, before precipitation tapers off Tuesday
afternoon.

This will not be a particularly strong system, with winds
remaining below advisory thresholds, and only light to moderate
rainfall amounts. One point of note, however,r is that due to the
weaker wind field and more westerly storm trajectory,
precipitation amounts could overperform along the western slopes
of the Cascades, where upslope production will be stronger, and
within the Rogue Valley around Medford, which may not see the
strong downsloping rain reduction typically seen during frontal
systems.

Snow levels of around 7000 ft ahead of the front will drop to
around 5000 ft behind it. This should keep any heavy snowfall
above the passes during the more steady precipitation, but the
showers Monday and Tuesday could put an inch or two total down on
passes over those two days. Again, not a huge impact, but
something for those travelling over the passes to keep an eye on.

Models are still having a hard time finding a consensus on the
forecast for the rest of next week. They are, however, trending
towards a wetter and cooler pattern than previous runs. If this
pattern comes to pass, cool temperatures and shower chances would
be present for much of the week ahead.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...

High clouds will be common across the region through much of this
TAF cycle with overall light wind speeds for inland TAF sites. North
Bend will have breezy conditions this afternoon becoming lighter and
offshore (southeast) overnight. Even with the southeasterly flow
overnight, we are expecting MVFR clouds to develop and continue
through Sunday morning.

-Guerrero

&&

.MARINE...Updated 1230 PM PDT Saturday, October 24, 2026...Steep
seas and gusty north winds south of Cape Blanco will improve
gradually from north to south through tonight. Winds increase and
shift to the south with building wind seas Sunday ahead of an
approaching front that will also produce rain and lower visibility
as it passes. Conditions improve late Monday or Tuesday, but will
remain somewhat unsettled through the week.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for
     PZZ356-376.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for
     PZZ350-370.

&&

$$