324
FXUS66 KMFR 161140
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
440 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.UPDATE...Updated AVIATION Section.

&&

.AVIATION...16/12Z TAFs...VFR is expected across inland areas
through late tonight. There is a slight chance of a shower or
thunderstorm over portions of the East Side and/or norCal this
afternoon/evening. Along the coast, MVFR and local IFR this
morning will clear to VFR by late morning, but then some may
redevelop late tonight. -Spilde

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 248 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025/

DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning is showing stratus
and fog along the coast and just inland north of Cape Blanco,
but also south of Gold Beach, and especially around Brookings.
Some of the lower clouds could reach into the lower Umpqua Valley
near or just north of Roseburg this morning. Some high clouds are
streaming across inland sections, but many areas are clear.

An upper level trough offshore this morning will move onshore this
afternoon. Modest moisture and instability could lead to some
buildups over the mountains, but especially near/downwind of Mt.
Shasta and also over the East Side this afternoon and evening.
This could generate some showers and an isolated thunderstorm or
two over there while areas west of the Cascades remain dry. Expect
an uptick in afternoon/evening breezes compared to yesterday.
Peak gusts in the 20-30 mph range will be common. Overall, MaxTs
will trend down a little from yesterday over the west side, but
may be up a couple of degrees east of the Cascades.

Shower chances diminish as the trough axis shifts east of the area
this evening. A dry, stable air mass moves in on Tuesday and this
will result in warmer temps by about 3-6F compared to today. This
means highs in the mid to upper 80s for the valleys west of the
Cascades and generally 80-85F for the East Side and in NE
California.

A marine push will drive stratus back onshore into the coast
Tuesday night. This one may be deep enough to induce some light
rain showers/drizzle near the coast into Wednesday morning.
Stratus may also hang out long enough in the Umpqua Basin to
knock temps back a little bit there (compared to Tuesday), but
most other areas will have highs similar or even a bit higher than
on Tuesday.

It remains dry Thursday, then the big changes come Friday into
the weekend as a deep upper trough swings through the area. This
will bring breezy, cooler weather with some showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Just about everywhere will have at least a slight
chance of showers, but the highest PoPs will be across the north
in Oregon. Temps begin the trend downward on Friday, and on
Saturday, we may not make it out of the 60s here in Medford
(official forecast is 68F). This could then result in low
temperatures for some east side areas down into the 30s,
especially Saturday night. So, if you have a backyard garden or
sensitive vegetation, keep an eye of forecast low temperatures
this week to see if there`s any potential for frost. -Spilde

AVIATION...16/06Z TAFs...VFR is expected across inland areas
tonight and Monday. Along the coast,  MVFR and local IFR will
develop tonight, clearing to VFR late Monday morning. -CC

MARINE...Updated 200 AM Monday, June 16, 2025...Weak
disturbances today through Tuesday night will result in lighter
winds and lower seas over the marine waters, but with areas of
stratus and possibly even some light rain showers or drizzle. North
winds will increase again Wednesday, especially south of Cape
Blanco, with a period of steep seas possible during the afternoon
that could last into Thursday. Another system could bring showers
Friday into the weekend. -Spilde

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

&&

$$

MAS/MAS/MAS