870
FXUS66 KMFR 071147
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
447 AM PDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Hot and dry weather will continue through Saturday with
  temperatures more seasonable Sunday onward

* Smoke from nearby wildfires will produce unhealthy air quality
  over some areas

* No chances for thunderstorms until the middle of the month

&&

.DISCUSSION (Issued 236 PM Thu Aug 6)...

Smoke and heat are the main weather hazards over the forecast
area this afternoon. It looks like temperatures will still push
into the 100`s in our westside valleys this afternoon, yet short
of any records. In addition, models are anticipating a gradual
cool off as the thermal trough has moved eastward and the 500 mb
ridge slightly weakens this weekend. We`ll also see some stronger
westerly flow aloft, which will push smoke higher in the
atmosphere eastwards.

During the morning hours, we`ll get our usual southwest to west
winds over the forecast area before breezy north to northwest wind
sets up during the afternoon and evening hours. This will result
in smoke from the Wright Springs fire hovering around Klamath
Falls for the next few days. The winds from the Wood Rat fire
popping up near Ruch will push smoke into the Rogue Valley and air
quality will likely deteriorate over the next 24 hours.

500 mb heights become more zonal for most of the weekend before a
short wave moves through the Pacific Northwest around the
Saturday timeframe. We looked through the ensembles and we don`t
see any chance of showers or thunderstorms over our forecast area
as this trough moves through. Another wave also appears to develop
along the coast during the Tuesday timeframe with no anticipated
impacts around our region.

The only other weather feature to mention is around next week
when the models are anticipating another deeper wave to move into
the Pacific Northwest around Thursday. One would expect a few
thunderstorms to be in the forecast, although it is looking fairly
dry around Oregon, perhaps because the trough trajectory is
dropping in from the north west off the Gulf of Alaska. In any
case, it`s still looking fairly dry through most of next week.

There is some hope for precipitation in the forecast around Day
10. About 30% of ensemble members are predicting spotty convection
over southern Oregon and northern California around August 15th.
Some of this could also come in the form of thunderstorms.
Something to monitor during future model runs.

-Smith

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFs)...

Low clouds will bring MVFR to IFR conditions along the coast
impacting KOTH throughout this TAF cycle. For inland TAF sties,
expecting plenty of sunshine and VFR conditions through this
cycle. Expecting typical diurnal breezes as well. Lastly, there
will be areas of smoke/haze from nearby wildfires.

-Guerrero

&&

.MARINE...Updated 330 AM PDT Friday, August 6, 2026...Below
advisory conditions continue through late this morning with north
wind wave dominated seas. North winds will strengthen today
through the weekend into early next week. Steep seas are expected
south of Cape Blanco Friday morning through Saturday morning, then
a gale watch south of Port Orford later Saturday with steep seas
elsewhere.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ023-024-026-
     028>031.

CA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ080-081-
     083>085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through
     Saturday evening for PZZ356-376.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-
     370.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT
     Saturday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$