373
FXUS66 KMFR 220557
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
957 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2025

.Updated AVIATION Discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...22/06z TAFs...LIFR conditions in fog/low clouds have
already returned to the Umpqua and Coquille Basins, and are
developing in the lower portions of the Rogue Valley (Grants
Pass/Medford area). LIFR conditions should fill in the rest of the
Rogue/Illinois Valleys tonight with the lower conditions prevailing
through Saturday morning. Expect improvement to VFR later Saturday
morning between 17-21z, lingering the longest in the Umpqua Basin.

With offshore flow in place, there is some uncertainty regarding the
extent of LIFR conditions along the coast and just offshore as
breezy winds could limit fog development. Outside of the valleys,
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. /BR-y

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 347 PM PST Fri Nov 21 2025/

DISCUSSION...Dry weather is likely the rest of today through
Saturday as upper ridging nudges in from the west. The upper flow
will likely remain westerly with the ridge remaining over the area
Saturday. it will be mostly clear this evening, then were likely to
have a repeat of low clouds and fog in the same areas as this
morning later tonight and lasting into most Saturday morning.

The general consensus is for the front to move into the northwest
part of the forecast area late Sunday morning, then move southeast
Sunday afternoon. Most of the precipitation will be Sunday
afternoon, then the front is expected to weaken as it moves
southeast Sunday evening and night. This will keep rainfall amounts
in check, even for the more favorable areas.

The front will weaken further as it as it moves through the area
Monday morning, then drying out Monday afternoon.

A cooler and drier airmass will follow Monday night. Tuesday through
Wednesday, a front will slowly move into the area Tuesday afternoon
resulting in some precipitation moving into the area. There`s some
timing differences and the track of the system varies, so we`ll have
to keep a watch on this in the coming days. Some of the guidance
suggest the best chance for precipitation will stay north of our
area Tuesday, but some also suggest the front could linger over the
area Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

So far it looks like snow levels will be high enough to keep snow
concerns limited to the higher passes, but the I-5 corridor at
Siskiyou Summit should be okay. However, it`s a ways out and details
could change in the coming days, so stay tuned for updates.
-Petrucelli

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Friday, November 21, 2025...Steep
west swell continues in area waters, with gusty northerly winds
building slightly higher wave heights south of Cape Blanco. Those
winds peak tonight, then decrease through the weekend. Westerly
swell increases early Saturday morning, but very steep are not
expected.

Seas ease through the weekend but steep seas likely continue into
Monday morning. Below advisory conditions are possible from Monday
afternoon into midweek, with signs of active weather developing
towards the end of next week. -TAD

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Sunday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$