576
FXUS66 KMFR 300507
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1007 PM PDT Fri May 29 2026

...Aviation Discussion Updated...

.DISCUSSION... /Issued 208 PM PDT Fri May 29 2026/


SYNOPSIS...

Conditions trend drier and cooler into tonight. Freezing
temperatures are probable east of the Cascades tonight and
Saturday night. There is a low chance of showers or a few
thunderstorms in northern California Saturday afternoon.
A warming trend will begin Sunday and continue into Tuesday as
high temperatures will be well above normal.

DISCUSSION...

Still some showers on radar this afternoon as this upper level low
moves out of the forecast area. Some drier air is starting to
filter in, although plenty of cumulus clouds remain in the area
this afternoon. With the passing of a cold front according to WPC
surface analysis, we`ll see temperatures remain below normal and
cool tonight. Temperatures trend about 6 to 12 degrees lower with
the biggest drop east of the Cascades. This will lead to freezing
temperatures in some sections of Lake and Klamath counties. The
probability of low temperatures <32 F in Klamath Falls and
Lakeview is 45% and 40% tonight and 65% and 50% Saturday night.

Even with the passing of this cold front, temperatures should move
a little higher on Saturday with cloud cover in the morning. That
cloud cover will clear out during the afternoon as drier air
mixes into the boundary layer and mid levels. Models still have a
low chance of showers or perhaps a few thunderstorms in northern
California Saturday afternoon. The thunderstorm probabilities/PoPs
are between 10-15% in sections of northern California. The
thermodynamics look pretty poor on the forecast soundings, so
virga showers seem most likely.

By Sunday, conditions will continue to dry and a short wave will
combine with some other upper level energy over the northern
Rockies. Eventually, a cut off low will develop over Idaho and
Montana late Monday into Tuesday. Main impact for our area will
be light easterly breezes over the Cascades and some notably
drier and warmer air. Highs will push towards 90 here in Medford
on Tuesday and upper 60`s along the coast. One could analyze a
thermal trough here as well with the 1000-500 mb thickness
contours. A 500 mb ridge briefly builds, so that will also
contribute to our notable warm up by Tuesday.

Eventually, temperatures cool a bit after Tuesday, although
remain a few degrees above the normal high for this time of year.
Overall, low impacts from the weather for the next few days with
respect to temperatures. The extreme forecast index(EFI) has some
values around 0.8 here on Tuesday, although that just hints at
usually warm temperatures, nothing extreme for this time of year.
Lows are well into the 50`s, so heat risk is still very low.


&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS

Conditions are mainly VFR with local MVFR ceilings in the Coquille
and Umpqua valleys as well as near Mount Shasta City in showers.
Areas of IFR/MVFR are expected to develop overnight along the coast
and in the Coquille and Umpqua Valleys, including at North Bend
(KOTH) and Roseburg (RBG). Then, conditions are expected to lift to
VFR between 15-18Z.   At Medford (MFR) a cloud deck of around 4kft
will break up and clear around 17-19z. Gusty afternoon winds are
expected at the coast.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 130 PM PDT Friday, May 29, 2026...North winds
are increasing this afternoon and evening with seas becoming high
and steep through the weekend. Southern waters will have these
conditions first before expanding to all waters Sunday. South waters
could have very steep seas Sunday as well, and a Hazardous Seas
Watch has been issued. Conditions will remain hazardous to small
craft during this time.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Sunday
     for PZZ356-376.

Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
     PZZ356-376.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 2 AM PDT Monday for
     PZZ350-370.

&&

$$