636
FXUS66 KMFR 201738
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
938 AM PST Thu Nov 20 2025

.Updated Aviation Discussion.

.DISCUSSION...Radar image shows isolated showers along the coast
and coastal counties (Curry and Coos) and portions of Josephine
County. The showers are slowly moving east. Guidance is in pretty
good agreement with showers gradually diminishing late this
morning into this afternoon as the upper low moves south into
northern California. Tonight will be dry with cloud cover
generally dissipating as a drier air mass moves in. However the
stable conditions could result in low clouds and fog for the
interior westside valleys and portions of the valleys east of the
Cascades.

Dry weather will continue through Saturday with low clouds and fog
possible again later Friday night into Saturday for same areas as
where were expecting tonight.

As mentioned yesterday, there was some indications Sunday
afternoon could be a bit of a grey area with respect to the next
incoming front, and thus precipitation chances. The operational
models and several more of the individual ensemble members suggest
precipitation could move into the northwest part of the forecast
area and the coast Sunday afternoon, then inland Sunday evening.

If nothing else, this front will be more of a garden variety
type with mot much in the way of precipitation amounts and the
front is still showing signs of weakening as it moves into our
area. Therefore most of the precipitation could be from Sunday
afternoon into Monday morning with drying expected Monday
afternoon.

Also of importance will be the holiday travel time next Wednesday.
There`s evidence pointing towards more active weather, but snow
levels will be higher and could be confined to the higher terrain.

We`ll wait for the latest suite of model data (operational and
ensemble members) to see if they are still leaning in this
direction for Sunday into Wednesday of next week. -Petrucelli



&&

.AVIATION...20/18z TAFs...Isolated convective showers will linger
through 21z along the coast and portions of Josephine, Curry, Coos
and Douglas County. Convective showers and cloud cover will diminish
early this afternoon. VFR conditions will continue through this
evening, then low clouds with fog are expected for the inland
terminals due to stable conditions and ample low level moisture with
IFR and brief periods of LIFR conditions that will likely last until
the end of the TAF period. -Petrucelli


&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 AM PST Thursday, November 20, 2025...Large
long period swell arrives this afternoon and tonight. This will
result in continued steep seas. Guidance is showing the swell
peaking in the 15-17 foot range at 14-15 seconds this afternoon
through tonight. Seas will remain steep through at least Friday.
Another west-northwest swell is expected to build into the waters
Saturday with seas of 10 to 13 feet at 16 seconds. Steep, elevated
seas at or above 10 feet may persist Sunday and Monday.


&&

.BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 300 AM PST Thursday, November
20, 2025...Guidance is showing a long period swell arriving today
and persisting through Friday morning. With swells peaking in the 15-
17 foot range (15 sec period) this evening, this will result in 20-
22 foot breaking waves in the surf zone. A high surf advisory has
been issued. Beaches and jetties will be hazardous areas, and some
coastal erosion is possible.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST Friday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$