209
FXUS66 KMFR 042344
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
344 PM PST Wed Nov 4 2026

.Updated AVIATION Discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...05/00Z...VFR conditions prevail across the region with
mainly mid-high level clouds associated with a weakening front
passing through the region. VFR conditions are expected to continue
through the evening and for most of the overnight period. Skies are
likely to clear some late tonight/early Thursday morning, especially
the higher and mid level clouds, so this could result in some LIFR
conditions in fog/low clouds across the valleys around 12z.
Confidence wasn`t high enough to include in the TAF at this time,
but if fog doesn`t develop, then a mix of MVFR/low end VFR
conditions would be the scenario across West Side Valleys. Cloud
cover will persist into Thursday morning, improving to VFR by around
18z-20z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 241 PM PST Wed Nov 4 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* A weak cold front will bring light showers to Coos and Douglas
  counties this evening but will otherwise have little impact
  beyond keeping temperatures cool.

* Slight warming is possible on Friday and Saturday. Another could
  front may bring additional light showers to coastal and coastal-
  adjacent counties on Sunday.

* Seasonal conditions continue early next week. Long-term guidance
  shows activity towards the end of next week, but with
  substantial uncertainty.

DISCUSSION...Westerly flow aloft will keep a progressive, though
not terribly impactful, pattern in place for much of the forecast
period. A weak cold front is reaching the coast this afternoon,
which will bring 15-30% chances for rain showers to coos and Douglas
counties with forecast amounts in the hundreths of an inch. Other
areas will see cool temperatures and cloudy skies but little else. A
combination of atmospheric mixing and lingering cloud cover are
expected to minimize fog development tonight in to Thursday, when
seasonable conditions continue.

Following the cold front, a ridge developing over the Pacific Ocean
will try to push into the area on Friday or Saturday. This might
bring a day or two of temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal
norms, especially for west side valleys. But those warm temperatures
would only be a small portion of the day`s weather.

Beyond the ridge, the pattern is somewhat complicated but overall
unimpactful. A first cold front looks to push the Pacific ridge
eastward on Saturday, which could allow a second front to reach the
area on Sunday. This would help bring temperatures back down to
seasonable or cooler levels, but precipitation would again be
minimal. Current imagery has 50-70% chances for showers over Coos,
Curry, Josephine, and Douglas counties. Rainfall totals might
approach two-tenths of an inch over terrain.

A similar pattern looks to continue early next week, with upper
disturbances keeping upper ridging to the east but that ridge having
just enough influence to push activity away to the north. This will
keep temperatures near normal levels through about midweek.

Beyond the 7-day forecast period, meteogram guidance still shows
chances for significant rainfall from an atmospheric river. However,
this chances seem to be trending down. Guidance for Brookings and
North Bend still shows solid agreement, but inland areas are
becoming more fractured. The forecast for Mount Shasta City will be
a good signal for other inland areas, as a low pressure system near
the Gulf of Alaska looks to pull that AR moisture into a southerly
flow pattern. For now, the meteogram for near Mount Shasta City (the
station is at 5000 feet) is getting more fractured, with members
seeing multiple inches of rain or no rain with few outcomes in
between. While emphasizing that this Thursday-Saturday period is
outside our formal forecast, that timeframe will be closely
considered as it approaches. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 215 PM PST Wednesday, November 4, 2026...A weak
front will swing through the waters this evening. This could bring
some light rain at times, especially north of Cape Blanco. But, seas
will subside a bit. Following the front, seas increase again
overnight into Thursday as westerly swell builds in. Conditions will
become steep and hazardous to small craft again, lasting Friday into
the weekend. The tail end of another front will move through
Saturday night with a chance of rain and elevated southerly winds.
But, accompanying this front will be a very high long-period west-
northwest swell that will move into the coastal waters Saturday
night, then peak at around 15-20 ft at 15 seconds Sunday
afternoon/evening. -Spilde

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to
     10 PM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$