205
FNUS76 KMFR 180501
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for Picture Rock...Forest Service
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
1001 PM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 PDT on August 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Dry conditions are expected through mid week
with typical summer afternoon breezes/humidity. An offshore
trough will impact the region Thu-Sat, bringing gusty south to
southwest winds and some lightning potential Thursday night
through Friday.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny with patchy smoke.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Max temperature.....86-88.
Min humidity........15-20 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light variable winds, then becoming north 2 to 3
mph late in the morning and afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable around 4 mph becoming northwest 5 to 9 mph
early in the morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......8900 ft AGL increasing to 11300 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 12 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  MCR MCR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR PC  PC
Weather cov.....PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY
Weather type....SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of ltng (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............56  58  61  65  72  76  81  83  85  86  86  87
RH..............52  51  46  40  35  29  26  22  19  17  16  15
20 FT wind dir..VRB VRB VRB VRB VRB NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   5   4   4   4   4   6   6   6   6   9
20 FT wind gust.8   8   7   7   7   8   10  10  11  12  13  14
Eye lvl wnd dir.VRB VRB VRB VRB VRB NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.2   2   2   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   3
Eye lvl wnd gst.3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 8.9 8.9 8.9 11  11  11  11
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  N   N   N   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
Transp wind spd.9   9   6   6   6   7   7   7   9   9   9   12

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Min temperature.....55-57.
Max humidity........46-50 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds up to 4 mph becoming
light overnight.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 12 mph becoming
light overnight.
Mixing height.......11300 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 15 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 3 mph early in the morning.
CWR.................0 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of ltng (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............85  83  79  72  69  66  64  63  62  59  59  58
RH..............16  17  22  28  34  40  42  44  45  46  46  47
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   SW
20 FT wind spd..9   9   12  12  12  9   9   9   5   5   5   3
20 FT wind gust.14  14  18  18  18  12  12  12  7   7   7   6
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   SW
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   3   4   4   4   3   3   3   2   2   2   1
Eye lvl wnd gst.5   5   7   7   7   5   5   5   3   3   3   2
Mix hgt (kft)...11  11  1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  SW
Transp wind spd.12  12  15  15  15  12  12  12  6   6   6   3

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
Max temperature.....86-89.
Min humidity........14-19 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming east around 2 mph late in
                    the morning, then shifting to the south late in
                    the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east around 5 mph late in
                    the morning, then shifting to the south around
                    6 mph late in the afternoon
Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL increasing to 12000 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 3 mph shifting to the
                    southeast 5 to 6 mph early in the morning, then
                    shifting to the southwest 12 to 13 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of ltng (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............56  58  61  65  71  76  81  85  87  89  89  88
RH..............47  45  41  36  31  26  22  19  17  15  14  14
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  S   S   S   E   E   E   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   6   6   8   8   8   11  11  11  12
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW  SW  S   S   S   E   E   E   S   S   S   W
Eye lvl wnd spd.1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Eye lvl wnd gst.2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   4   4   4   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 11  11  11  12
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.3   3   5   5   5   6   6   6   13  13  13  12

$$
Forecaster...SMITH
Requested by...Lex Romine
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2619816.3/MFR
.DELDT 08/18/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL orlfc@firenet.gov,lex.romine@usda.gov