518
FXUS62 KMHX 160804
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
404 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will meander around ENC over the next day or
so, with a continued risk of unsettled weather. The front then
shifts back north by mid week with drier high pressure
returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

Key Messages

 - Heavy rain and flooding risk expected to continue today

 - Flood Watch now in effect for much of ENC through late
   tonight

A notable MCV is shifting offshore of the Mid-Atlantic Coast
this morning, and has left behind a confluence axis that is
draped west to east across ENC. Continued moisture transport
from the WSW is feeding into the western flank of that axis, and
has supported training convection along the HWY 264 corridor
since last evening. This has led to widespread flooding across
portions of Greene, Pitt, and Martin Counties, with MRMS maximum
ARIs of 70-90 years. In other words, there is roughly a 1%
chance of an event like this occurring in any given year, making
it a notable flash flood event. What`s more notable is that
this is not associated with any tropical system.

This same anomalously moist airmass will remain in place today,
and the expectation is for renewed convective development
during the day along the above-mentioned boundary. Guidance
differ on where the boundary will stall today, but the potential
exists for some areas to see an additional 2-5" of rain
where/if training thunderstorms redevelop. The area of most
concern, of course, is the greater Greenville area which has
been hit hard since last night. If this area gets hit again
today, this could lead to a fairly significant flash flooding
risk. If the axis of heaviest rainfall shifts south, as some
guidance suggests, then the risk of flooding would subsequently
follow suite. Given the fairly broad area of potential flooding,
the Flood Watch has been expanded to include much of ENC. The
exception is Ocracoke and Hatteras Island where confidence in
heavy rain and flooding is much lower.

Most of the Flood Watch area is running 100-200% of normal for
rainfall over the past week (not including last night`s
rainfall), and it shouldn`t take much to lead to isolated to
scattered instances of flooding/flash flooding. This will
primarily be focused over more urbanized areas (Jacksonville,
Morehead City, New Bern, Greenville, etc.). Of note, some
guidance suggests the potential for multiple clusters of
thunderstorms to impact the area through late tonight, and the
Flood Watch will go through then to capture this potential.

Shear is not particularly strong today, but the strongest, most
sustained, cores could produce 40-60 mph wind gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

Clusters of thunderstorms may continue well into this evening,
with some guidance suggesting a risk well into the night with a
continued risk of heavy rain and flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330AM Sun...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather pattern into Tuesday

- Potential for dangerous heat indices midweek into the end of
  next week.

Tuesday...Some minor tweaks to the forecast for Tuesday, but
overall the general pattern remains the same as upper ridging
will remain off the Southeast Coast while a weak and slow moving
upper trough tracks across the Southeast Mon/Tue. Further to
the west, a stronger but neutrally tilted upper trough will
quickly progress across the Pacific Northwest and enter into the
Plains Tues night and this will be our next potential weather-
maker. At the mid levels, several weak but notable shortwaves
will be transiting the base of the upper trough across the Mid-
Atlantic and Southeast which will promote widespread lift across
the area. At the surface, stalled front will gradually lift
N`wards Mon night into Tue. By Tue we return to more diurnally
driven showers/tstms associated with the Seabreeze circulation
and mid level shortwave transiting the region.

Wednesday through next weekend...Previously mentioned upper trough
will be the main feature of note into the end of the week with this
neutrally tilted trough pushing E`wards into the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast by Fri. Currently GFS is the deepest and slowest with this
trough with the Canadian and ECWMF guidance slightly quicker and
weaker with the trough. Either way, at the surface we return to a
more summer like pattern with thunderstorms primarily focused along
the Seabreeze on Wed/Thurs with an incoming surface cold front
from the west becoming the focus for potential shower/tstm
activity on Fri. High pressure ridging then builds into the area
over the weekend once again drying the area out. Of bigger note
will be the hot and muggy conditions expected around midweek as
a combination of temps in the 90s Wed/Thurs and dewpoints in
the 70s will result in hazardous heat indices with "feels like"
temps closer to the 100-110 F range each day. Will have to
monitor trends, but the years first heat advisories may be
needed next week if the current forecast holds. Once cold front
pushes through on Friday temps will decrease slightly and the
excessive heat threat will lower this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

Key Messages

 - Increased TSRA risk to continue into late tonight

Overnight, the TSRA risk looks to be primarily focused in and
around the KPGV area, and perhaps extending as far south as KISO
and KEWN. After this TSRA activity wanes, a renewed risk of
TSRA is expected Monday afternoon and evening. The strongest
TSRA will be capable of 30-50kt wind gusts and significant
reductions to VIS (LIFR/IFR). Areas of low CIGs may develop
Monday evening in the wake of the TSRA activity.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 330AM Sun...Unsettled weather will continue to persist
across the area into midweek as a stalled front will bring a
threat for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to
Eastern North Carolina. A more summer like pattern returns with
diurnal thunderstorm activity developing along the Seabreeze on
Tue/Wed. Either way this will bring a daily threat for sub-VFR
conditions each day. In addition to this, early morning fog
development will remain possible for areas that see rain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Mon/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

Key Messages

 - Increased thunderstorm risk again today and tonight

A frontal boundary draped across the area is expected to lead
to an increased risk of thunderstorms through tonight for much,
if not all, of the ENC waters. The strongest thunderstorms will
be capable of 30-50kt winds and brief waterspouts. Outside of
the thunderstorm activity, the background flow will vary
depending on the location of the front. Most likely, the central
and southern waters south of Cape Hatteras will stay
southwesterly at 10-20kt, while north of there, winds will be
lighter and more variable with the front in the vicinity.

LONG TERM /Monday though Thursday/...
As of 330AM Sun...A stalled frontal boundary will bisect our
waters from west to east, generally from around Lenoir county
east across the Pamlico Sound, and just north of Hatteras Island
into our coastal waters. This stalled front will bring a threat
for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms into Tue across
all our waters with locally enhanced winds and seas noted
within the strongest activity. Front will gradually lift
N`wards through Tue allowing for the entire area to see SW`rly
winds at 10-15 kts with gusts up near 20 kts. By Wed as high
pressure settles into the region and thermal troughing sets up
the gradient will pinch slightly allowing SW`rly winds Tue night
into Wed to increase to 15-20 kts with occasional gusts up near
25 kts at times into Thurs. Seas will generally remain around
2-5 ft through the period keeping us SCA free through at least
midweek.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 330 AM Monday...

There will be a continued risk of thunderstorms with intense
rainfall rates over the next 24-48 hours, which is expected to
keep the flood/flash flood risk elevated. The Flood Watch has
been expanded to include much of ENC, and now runs through late
tonight. Ensemble guidance doesn`t show as substantial of a
rainfall footprint today as what was forecast yesterday.
However, given wet antecedant conditions, it shouldn`t take much
rain to cause some flooding issues. This will especially be the
case for the areas that saw substantial rainfall last night
(Greene, Pitt, Martin Counties). It should be noted that a
small, but more significant, flood risk may develop in the
greater Greenville area if additional heavy rain develops in
that area today. Rivers and streams are running high in that
area, and soils are very saturated after the 3-7" of rain that
fell.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-
     091-203.
     Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight
     for NCZ090-092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...CQD/RCF
AVIATION...RM/RCF
MARINE...RM/RCF
HYDROLOGY...MHX