824
FXUS62 KMHX 280631
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
231 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant forecast changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Elevated water levels and minor impacts will continue to
impact some coastal communities thanks to ongoing high
astronomical tides.

2) High pressure builds in through the week with warming
temperatures and light winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...While seas have come down, minor soundside
flooding (1 ft or less) is still possible for coastal areas
adjacent to tidal rivers and sounds due to already elevated
waters levels and high astronomical tides. The high astronomical
tides peak on Tuesday, but seas have fallen substantially and
winds will be significantly weaker than the past several days.
At this time, no "new flooding," (i.e. ocean overwash) is
expected, but there still may be standing water on roadways, and
in low lying or poor drainage areas, which would still have
travel impacts. For areas along the Crystal Coast and areas
adjacent to the Pamlico Sound that saw flooding yesterday, we
expect to see elevated water levels through Wednesday, but
levels are not expected to be as high as they were on Sunday.
This potential will continue to be monitored over the next
couple of days, though, in case any coastal flood headlines are
needed.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Upper level ridging is forecast to expand north
and east from the Gulf Coast to the Southeast U.S. coast
through the week. Warming low-level thicknesses and the eventual
return of southerly flow should allow temperatures to get back
above normal to close out September and welcome in October.
Moisture and humidity will gradually return as well, but it
doesn`t look like a quick return. This plus ridging aloft should
help to keep the chance of precipitation low for much of the
work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours.

An area of low-level moisture convergence appears to be what is
supporting an area of mid-level CIGs (6-7k ft) across much of
the TAF sites at this time. However, trends on satellite and
model guidance suggest these CIGs should mostly diminish by
08-09z. In the wake of the clouds, guidance suggests MIFG may
develop thanks to decent radiational cooling conditions. For now
this has been left out of the TAFs due to uncertainty with
cloudcover and the presence of a drier airmass. During the day
on Monday, mostly clear skies are expected along with light and
variable winds. Another round of mid- level cigs may pivot south
out of VA and into northern NC Monday evening, and a SCT to BKN
mid-level cloud group has been added to KPGV and KISO for that
time. South of those clouds, guidance suggests a better chance
of MIFG/BR as low-level moisture may be higher than tonight, and
there will continue to be good radiational cooling conditions.

Of note, an ongoing fire in Onslow County may cause some
temporary reductions to VIS around KMRH overnight. The greatest
chance of sub-VFR VIS should be confined closer to the fire,
itself, though.

Outlook: Other than a nightly risk of MIFG/BR, it appears that
a mostly quiet period for aviation is in the cards through at
least the middle part of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Today begins an extended period of much-improved boating
conditions. Over the next couple of days, winds will be light
(5-10kt) and variable, which will be a noticeable change
compared to the past several days. With the light winds, seas of
2-4ft this morning will lay down to around 2-3ft.

Outlook: Great boating conditions continue mid to late week
with light and variable winds and seas of 2-3ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/CEB
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM