643
FXUS62 KMHX 251145
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
645 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift out to sea this morning. This will
allow a coastal trough to develop offshore and move inland
during the day today. A warm front then lifts north through the
area tonight. A cold front will sweep east across the area
Wednesday night, followed by a sprawling area of high pressure
building in over the Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Above normal temperatures expected through Wednesday

Satellite imagery this morning reveals the development of a
coastal trough south of the Crystal Coast. Radar imagery shows a
few light showers associated with this feature, but nothing
looks all that impressive at the moment. Short-term guidance
continues to insist that isolated showers will be possible for
several hours this morning as the trough moves closer to the
coast. Eventually the trough is forecast to weaken, which should
lead to a temporary lull in shower activity.

Later today and, especially, this evening into tonight, a
developing warm front will lift north along the coast of the
Carolinas as a fast-moving upper level shortwave glances the
area. The combination of the glancing wave, increased
convergence along the warm front, modest WAA, and increased
moisture advection should support a quick round of scattered
showers from this evening into tonight. The greatest chance of
showers looks to be focused along the coast where low-level
convergence is maximized. Weak instability developing may
support a few thunderstorms tonight as well, although the lack
of stronger lift and instability should limit any severe
thunderstorm risk.

Despite a chilly start to the day, highs should quickly rebound
today as southerly flow ensues. Strengthening southerly flow
and continued WAA will lead to above normal temperatures
continuing through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

ENC will be warm-sectored for much of the day Wednesday, with
southerly flow and building low-level thicknesses supporting
above to well above normal temperatures. A tightening pressure
gradient plus shallow mixing into the lower reaches of a strong
SW LLJ should lead to breezy conditions for much of the area.
Along the immediate coast from Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras,
occasional gusts of 35-40+ mph appears plausible.

Despite increasing low-level moisture and building instability,
it still appears that the strongest forcing will be focused off
to the NW and N of ENC, which should lower the risk of deep
convection, and keep any severe thunderstorm risk low. In fact,
some guidance suggests most of Wednesday will be dry. We`ll
continue to advertise isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday, but the signal doesn`t look that good
for appreciable rainfall. This could setup elevated fire
conditions later in the week, especially with how dry it has
been over the past few weeks.

A cold front will move through the area Wednesday evening,
ushering in a much colder and drier airmass. The passage of the
front will also spell the end of any rainfall chances.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Cold and dry conditions expected on Thanksgiving

A much colder, and very dry, post-frontal airmass will settle
into the Carolinas over the Thanksgiving holiday. Sprawling high
pressure overhead should setup a couple of nights of excellent
radiational cooling conditions, supporting below to well below
normal temperatures. The coldest night is expected to be Friday
night, with lows falling into the 20s inland, and 30s along the
coast. Of note, guidance has trended colder during the Thursday
- Saturday period, and the forecast reflects this trend.

Late in the weekend and into early next week, the cold airmass
is forecast to shift away from the area as deep southerly flow
redevelops ahead of a positively-tilted upper trough over the
western/central U.S. This type of upper level pattern often
favors significant differences among deterministic guidance.
Therefore, confidence is lower regarding how quickly moisture
and rainfall chances will increase. For now, the forecast will
reflect warming temperatures with a modest chance of showers.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 640 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Small opportunity for sub-VFR conditions along the coast this
   morning

 - A chance for sub-VFR conditions tonight and Wednesday with
   increasing moisture and showers ahead of a cold front.

High pressure slides offshore today. Low level flow veers to SE
overnight allowing for increasing moisture with onshore flow
developing. Stratocu has started to spread onshore this morning,
first across the southern coast then spreading nwd across the
rest of ENC through the day today. Current thinking is that
cloud bases will be 3000-4500 ft along and east of US 17, with
more scattered low cloud coverage farther inland. This should
result in VFR remaining predominant inland, but coastal areas
could see some periods of MVFR ceilings this morning through the
afternoon. Will keep KOAJ and KEWN at VFR for this TAF issuance
as confidence is not high enough to include MVFR ceilings.
Early tonight, a shortwave moving along the coast brings a
slight chance of rainfall and MVFR ceiling potential. Further
inland, ahead of the cold front increasing low level moisture
brings MVFR to potentially IFR ceilings for the coastal plain.
The eastward extent of the sub-VFR conditions is still
uncertain, leading to low confidence in the TAFs for PGV and ISO
overnight into early morning Wednesday. Added VCSH for ISO and
PGV overnight, with lower confidence of TS preventing a VCTS in
the TAFs with this cycle.

Outlook: An approaching frontal system will bring the next
chances of sub-VFR conditions  Wednesday, mainly in showers
during the afternoon and evening hours. There is also a 15-30%
chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday. After cold
front moves through late Wednesday, VFR conditions are expected
to return as high pressure builds in.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Increased risk of elevated winds and seas from Tuesday night
   through Friday

 - Small Craft Advisory now in effect for portions of the
   coastal waters

 - Thunderstorms possible tonight

A coastal trough has developed over the southern waters this
morning, with a modest E to SE flow of 5-15kt developing around
it across most ENC waters. This trough is forecast to lift north
through the day today, with the flow becoming predominantly
southerly by this afternoon. The southerly flow then builds
further tonight into Wednesday as the gradient tightens ahead of
an approaching cold front. A period of moderately strong
southerly winds of 15-25kt is expected this evening through
Wednesday evening. Over the warmer central and southern coastal
waters, occasional gusts of 30-35kt appear possible on
Wednesday. Given an increasing signal for 25kt+ winds, a Small
Craft Advisory has been issued for the coastal waters from
Oregon Inlet south through Surf City. For now, this advisory
will just be focused on the pre-frontal southerly winds and
elevated seas. Additional marine headlines may be needed for the
post-frontal northerly winds later in the week.

Seas of 2-3ft this morning are expected to build to 3-6ft by
tonight, then further build to 4-7ft on Wednesday. The highest
seas are expected from Cape Hatteras south.

As a warm front lifts north through the area tonight, there
will be a modest risk of thunderstorms, mainly over the central
and southern coastal waters and the eastern Pamlico Sound.

Lastly, warm and moist air overspreading the cooler shelf
waters may lead to a period of marine fog impacts this evening
and tonight before the strongest winds arrive.

Outlook: A post-frontal surge of northwesterly winds is
expected late Thursday into Friday, with a period of 20-30kt
wind gusts expected for most, if not all, waters. Later Friday
through Saturday, high pressure is forecast to build in with
winds and seas laying down.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1210 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages:

-Fire weather concerns Thursday and Friday

Eastern NC has been experiencing Moderate to locally Severe
drought conditions with a long duration of little to no
rainfall. While rain chances exist late Tuesday into Wednesday
morning, current forecast rainfall totals will do little to
improve the drought conditions on a large scale. Behind the cold
front Wednesday, dry air ushers into the region, allowing
relative humidities to drop below 35% while wind gusts reach
near 20 mph during the day. Considering the drought conditions
and decreasing greenery as the fall season progresses, we will
see an increased potential for fire weather concerns. As high-
resolution guidance becomes available for Thursday and Friday,
we will have a better idea on how strong winds will truly be and
how dry the airmass is behind the cold front.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...RM
FIRE WEATHER...MHX