068
FXUS62 KMHX 052105
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
505 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Nation-wide comms issues throughout the organization have been
resolved. Products and warnings are getting out.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for the entire FA, warning
operations for both severe thunderstorms and ongoing.

Heat Advisory continues for portions of the area today.

SCAs have been issued for all Coastal Waters starting SUN night
due to 6ft seas developing with the NEerly wind surge behind the
front.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous, potentially record-breaking heat to impact the
area through Saturday.

2) Severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening.
Main threats damaging wind gusts, hail and localized flooding,
with the greatest threat between 3-11 PM.

3) Return to more seasonable September temps for the beginning
of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Anomalously warm low-level thicknesses and
dewpoints beneath strong ridging aloft will continue to keep
temperatures well above normal with potential record breaking
heat continuing today, with heat index values peaking at
105-110 deg this afternoon for most of the area. Heat Advisory
continues for most of the area, with highs in the 90s and
dewpoints in the 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong upper level trough will develop off
the U.S. East Coast over the weekend, and this will help drive a
strong cold front south through the Carolinas through tonight.
This plus increased forcing along the cold front and other
lingering boundaries has supported an increased risk of deep
convection, and less limiting factors, compared to previous
days. PW`s/TD`s inc further and with lowering hts aloft,
instability will be very strong. 2.5kJ/kg were evident on this
morning`s 12Z sounding and RAP is showing 4.5kJ/kg along the
Crystal Coast ahead of the seabreeze, well above the avg max
for first week of September according to the KMHX sounding
climatology. If convective timing aligns with fropa/shortwave
passage in the afternoon, a significant severe weather signal
may be met as this aligns with stout deep layer shear, possibly
in excess of 35-45kt. Machine learning severe probs for damaging
wind continue to tick up for parts of ENC. In addition to the
severe threat, will have to watch for potential flash flood
threat, as PWs surge to 2.25" or higher, and with the expected
numerous convection, very heavy rain rates are possible with
deeper convection and lend to instances of flash flooding,
especially with potential for training of storms. Flood Advisory
has been issued for the severe warned storm that impacted
Havelock and propagating Sward toward Bogue Banks with some
pockets of 5in/hr rain rates.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Behind the front, temperatures and humidity
will finally get knocked down closer to normal for early
September, with more comfortable conditions lasting into early
next week. Still some residual moisture lingering on Sunday and
may see some sct showers, but overall trend is for drier esp as
we begin the work week with pops less than 20% lasting through
mid week. Highs in the mid 80s with lows in the 60s is fcst and
is where our temps should be for the first half of September.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions across the terminals and will stay this way
outside of thunderstorms this afternoon. Sct to numerous
showers and storms expected this afternoon and evening as cold
front drops southward through the area. Sub-VFR conditions will
be possible with any TSRA, continue prevailing MVFR line with
tempo IFR groups to try to time the potential for strongest
storms. Some storms have the potential to be strong to severe
with winds in excess of 50kt and strongest storms having hail as
well. Precip will taper off from west to east late evening,
with potential for IFR fog and low stratus to develop early Sun
morning.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been appended to the EWN TAFs as the
site is not transmitting through normal channels. The site is
still reporting via telephone so it will be monitored, but not
as frequently as when it is completely operational. The next
closest ASOS is at Cherry Point (KNKT).

Outlook (Sun through Wed): Behind the front, a northeasterly
wind shift will occur, with northeasterly flow continuing into
early next week. This could lead to periods of sub-VFR ceilings,
esp Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest obs show W-NW winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Cold front
currently sinking through the NC/VA border will slowly sink
southward through the waters into tonight. Winds will grad veer
through the day becoming N/NE behind the front, remaining SW
ahead of it with seas 2-4 ft. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms expected this afternoon and evening. Some could be strong
to severe, with freq lightning, strong wind gusts, and hail.

Outlook (Sun through Wed): Moderate to gusty NE winds 15-25 kt will
develop Sunday and continue into Monday, with seas building to
4-8 ft, highest across the outer waters. SCA conditions expected.
Winds and seas will begin to ease Tuesday and Wed as high
pressure builds in.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for 09/05 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         96/2023  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    91/1983  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       99/1921  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    91/2020  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         100/1983  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     96/1983  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ044-079>081-
     090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday
     night for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to noon EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...CQD/CEB
MARINE...CQD/CEB