926
FXUS62 KMHX 200544
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1244 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through ENC tonight. High pressure then
rebuilds offshore late this week with above normal temperatures
returning. A frontal system will bring the next chance of rain
this weekend, with cooler and drier conditions expected early
next week. Another system brings a small chance for rain by mid
week next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 630 PM Wednesday...

Clouds have been slower to move into the area which, with
relatively light winds, has allowed for decent radiational
cooling conditions. Because of this, temperatures have fallen
quicker than forecast, and hourly temps have been adjusted to
reflect this faster rate of fall. However, overnight lows
shouldn`t differ much from the previous forecast as clouds are
still expected to move in, slowing the drop in temps.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Warm conditions with partly to mostly
sunny skies have developed this afternoon ahead of a dry cold
front. Temps are now into the low to mid 70s across the southern
half of the forecast area, and upper 60s to low 70s farther
north where clouds remain. The cold front will move through the
forecast area from north to south late this afternoon, bringing
both a wind shift to the north and more widespread low cloud
cover. Cloudy skies continue overnight, but modest CAA will help
push temps down into the mid to upper 40s inland, and lower 50s
along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 2 PM Wed...Weak cold air damming will be in place tomorrow
with high pressure ridging down the lee of the Appalachians and
light northerly flow at the surface. Clouds will remain for
most of the morning, but will break from south to north through
the afternoon. As a result, there will be a large temperature
range across the forecast area with areas along the northern
coastal plain remaining in the upper 50s to low 60s with cloud
cover most of the day. Across southern NC, clouds will likely
break by late morning and allow for afternoon heating with highs
reaching the mid to upper 60s. And finally, the middle area is
most uncertain, and highs here will depend on how much sun is
seen.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 2 PM Wed...Mainly mild conditions expected with above
climo temps through mid next week. Chances for early Saturday
through late Saturday night, and then again by mid next week.

Fri through Sat...Next frontal system moves in bringing light
rain chances. For now, Friday looks to remain dry with moisture
along a warm front remaining just north of the forecast area.
Kept pops in the chc range for now Saturday and Saturday night.
Rain amts do not appear impressive, but perhaps some areas could
see a wetting rain. Will keep a slight chance of thunder
Saturday afternoon with "strong" heating expected and temps
reaching the upper 70s to around 80.

Sun through Wed...High pressure is then forecast to build in
behind the early weekend front, with dry conditions ensuing.
Zonal flow will be in place, so temps should be around avg
during this period, with highs in the 60s to near 70 and lows
in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1245 AM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions expected this morning. VFR
   rest of the short term period.

VFR conditions in place across TAF terminals early this morning
although MVFR and occasional IFR cigs with stratus deck is
gradually oozing southwestward from the Albemarle Sound as
secondary cold front pushes southward. HREF guidance remains
very bullish for widespread IFR cigs to develop over the area
this morning, while GFS LAMP guidance is more bearish. Upstream
obs are primarily MVFR with IFR confined to the immediate coast,
and expect this trend to continue while cigs spread over the
terminals beyond 07-09z. With steady but light winds wouldn`t be
surprised to see some brief drops to IFR especially for
terminals east and north, so did add TEMPOs for EWN and PGV.

Cigs are expected to scatter out quickly late Thurs morning, and
all terminals will return to VFR by then with weakening
northeasterly flow. Usually aggressive NAM, which last run held
onto low cigs all day, is now on board with more aggressive
clearing boosting forecast confidence.

Outlook: High pressure remains in place into Friday. Should
winds ease enough, could see some VIS concerns with patchy early
morning fog as well. Yet another chance for Sub-VFR conditions
over the weekend when a series of approaching, and eventually
passing, fronts increase rain chances and sky cover. Highest
chances currently Sat evening into Sun morning, although typical
timing differences lower confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 630 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages...

- Small Craft conditions to continue through around midnight
  across most of the coastal waters due to northerly winds of
  20-25 kts with gusts 25-30 kts

Northerly winds have increased pretty much right on schedule,
with peak gusts as high as 23-27kt for portions of the central
and northern waters as of early this evening. The ongoing marine
headlines look good, and no changes are expected there.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Ahead of a cold front this afternoon winds
are WSW at 10-20 kts. The front will move through the area from
north to south starting late this afternoon, and winds will
surge to 20-25 kts out of the north with gusts 25-30 kts for a
several hour period through around midnight. Winds then subside
overnight and will be N 10-15 kts tomorrow. Seas will be 2-4 ft,
but will briefly come up to 3-5 for a few hours overnight.

Outlook: Winds become light and variable for most of Friday, but
then quickly strengthen out of the SW Friday night. Small Craft
conditions are likely to develop over at least the coastal
waters early Saturday through Sunday as a frontal system passes
by the Carolinas. Improving conditions expected Sunday night
through Monday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST early this morning for
     AMZ154-156.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...TL