783
FXUS62 KMHX 130648
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
148 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warming trend through the week with high pressure in control.
A dry cold front will move through late Sunday, and another
front mid next week, though again should remain mostly dry.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 150 AM Thu...Latest analysis shows high pressure anchored
over the SE US and shortwave pushing off the Mid-Atlantic
coast. High pressure will remain in control today with zonal WNW
downsloping flow off the Appalachians. This will translate to
warmer temps and dry dewpoints. Low level thickness values,
sunny skies and WNW flow support highs climbing back into the
low to mid 60s across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 150 AM Thu...High pressure remains in control, allowing
for strong radiational cooling with mostly clear skies and
light/calm winds. Trended towards the cooler side of guidance,
with lows falling into the low/mid 30s inland and 40s for the
beaches. Some sheltered inland locations could again drop to
freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 150 AM Thu...Warming trend through the week with high
pressure in control. A dry cold front will move through late
this weekend, and another front by mid next week, though again
should be mostly on the dry side.

Fri through Sun...End of the week into the weekend will cont dry
and warm, with above climo temps expected as highs in the 70s
and lows in the 40s and 50s are forecast. Flow will be swrly and
bring inc hts/thicknesses and hence the warmer pattern.

Mon through Wed...Dry cold front sweeps through Sun night,
switching winds from swrly to nwrly and bringing temps back to
near climo early to mid next week. Highs generally in the 60s
Mon to 65-70 Tue into Wed, with lows in the 40-45 range. Another
weak front moves through Tue night, though pops remain below 20%
attm and will likely remain mostly dry.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - LLWS potential decreases through sunrise

 - Breezy NW winds Thursday afternoon

VFR conditions expected to persist through the TAF period with high
pressure over the region. LLWS will remain possible through the next
couple of hours before decreasing by sunrise, with up to 35-45 kt of
wind around 2000 ft. Skies will remain clear through the rest of the
overnight before increasing high clouds move into the area Thursday.
Winds will be gusty Thursday afternoon, with gusts out of the
northwest at around 20 kts.

Outlook: VFR prevails into the weekend with dry high pressure over
the region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 150 AM Thu...

Key Messages
- Gusty winds and elevated seas continue through mid morning

- SCA conditions likely Saturday night into Sunday night

Latest obs show W winds 15-25 kt gusting 20-30 kt across the
coastal waters, with seas 4-7 ft (highest south of Hatteras).
NW winds will grad ease through the day 10-20 kt with seas
subsiding to 2-4 ft. Moderate NNW surge late tonight into early
Fri with uptick in winds 15-20 kt expected with seas building
3-5 ft north of Hatteras, but remaining 2-4 ft south. Sat night
into Sun, SW winds increase ahead of dry cold front, with speeds
of 15-25 kt and gusts 25-35 kt, along with seas building 6+ ft.
Winds and seas will grad improve through the day Mon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 150 AM Thu...Elevated Fire Weather conditions through
this week.

Warming trend through the week with high pressure in control.
A dry cold front will move through late Sunday, and another
front mid next week, though again should be mostly on the dry
side.

Downsloping flow today continues the dry conditions, along with
warming temperatures. RH`s again fall into the upper 20s to
lower 30s percentile, combined with WNW wind gusts to around 20
mph.

Friday and Saturday cont warm and dry, with highs reaching the
70 by Sat, and into the 70s on Sun.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ150-
     152-154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST early this morning for
     AMZ230-231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...ZC
MARINE...CQD
FIRE WEATHER...MHX