706
FXUS62 KMHX 170009
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
809 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The risk of strong to severe thunderstorms has decreased for
the remainder of the night.

Heat Advisory issued for all of eastern NC.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid temps persist across ENC into late in the
week, peaking tomorrow.

2) Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will pose a
marginal risk for strong storms and isolated flash flooding
Monday.

3) Climo precip chances are expected Tuesday and Wednesday
before the next front tracks across the area later in the week
bringing more widespread unsettled weather to ENC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Latest surface analysis this hour shows stalled
frontal boundary draped from roughly Wilmington northward to
along the I-95 corridor with high pressure centered off the
coast of New England extending along the mid- Atlantic coast.
The boundary is forecast to gradually lift north and eastward
later this afternoon in response to a mid-level shortwave
forecast to track across the mid-Atlantic. Ongoing convection
has likely abated peak heating and will keep highs at or
slightly below 90, capping heat indices at 100-105.

Tomorrow is a different story with the frontal boundary fully
lifted into the mid-Atlantic and thicknesses soaring back to
1435-1440+ m, setting the stage for highs in the mid to upper
90s inland assuming relatively clear skies to start the day. The
level of humidity is the main point of uncertainty as surface
winds will be WNW to NW, suggesting downsloping and Tds trending
lower than model consensus. If this does occur, HI values will
almost certainly still reach between 105-110 F. For that reason,
issued a Heat Advisory for tomorrow across all inland zones. A
short-fused upgrade to Extreme Heat Warnings, however is not out
of the question overnight mainly along the southern coast where
the sea breeze will boost dew points.

Another frontal boundary quickly pushes across NC tomorrow
evening before stalling along the coast. Like this weekend,
southern counties will likely remain hot and humid while
Albemarle and vicinity see some modest relief. A more widespread
cooldown, however, is on the horizon late week as a stronger
cold front dives out of Canada and across the eastern CONUS.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Regional radar this evening shows clusters of
strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing from West Virginia into
Virginia. The airmass downstream of these clusters still appears
at least modestly supportive of severe thunderstorms. However,
as we move further into the night, a stabilizing boundary layer
should lead to a lowering severe risk as the convection
approaches SE Virginia and NE North Carolina. The forecast will
remain unchanged through the night, but the key message for the
rest of the night is a reduced risk of severe weather.

A cold front then approaches from the north and west tomorrow
evening. Aforementioned heat and humidity will easily boost
instability with a forecast 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, but shear
will once again be lacking at generally 20 kt or less. However,
with PWATs remaining at or above 2" conditions will once again
be favorable for a stronger storm or two to impact the area
bringing a damaging wind, frequent lightning, and torrential
rain threat. Convective evolution will not be terribly different
from the past couple of days, with an afternoon focus along sea
and sound breezes and then upstream convection along remnant
differential heating boundaries inland, and then an evening
focus as a potentially more organized complex pushes across the
state through the evening hours - this, like tonight, would pose
the higher severe threat with damaging winds. AI NWP guidance
has elevated probabilities, which are plausible since northwest
flow events tend to overperform across eastern NC.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A brief return to more climo PoPs is forecast
Tue and Wed with the seabreeze and stalled front offshore being
the main focus for showers and thunderstorms. Stronger front is
likely to approach the region and stall late week, serving to
both offer a reprieve from oppressive heat and humidity, and a
chance of strong to severe thunderstorms as shear increases
alongside the boundary with stronger troughing. Given how far
out this is, there are still several details to hammer out but
will be monitoring trends in the forecast for any adjustments in
timing and strength of this front in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHRA and TSRA from earlier in the evening have weakened
considerably, with only a few LTG strikes noted between KISO and
KPGV. Given this trend, TSRA have been removed from all TAF
sites for the remainder of the night. Overnight into early
Monday morning, guidance suggests MVFR CIGs may develop.
However, the probability of this occurring is only around
20-40%. Therefore, the TAFs will only show a SCT015 layer to
highlight the potential.

During the day on Monday, a southwest to west-southwest wind
will develop. Slightly drier air and weak lift should keep the
TSRA risk low for much of the day. The risk then looks to
increase during the evening hours as a cold front approaches
from the west.

Outlook (Monday night through Friday): A more widespread threat
of sub-VFR conditions is possible Monday night into Tuesday
ahead of the next front before VFR conditions return Tue into
Wed. Yet another front begins to approach from the west later in
the week once again bringing increased shower and thunderstorm
risks as well as increasing risks for sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign boating conditions expected the rest of evening.
Southwest flow will strengthen with tightening thermal gradient
in the afternoon Monday, and we may see some infrequent gusts
to 25 kt across sounds and near-shore waters. Seas likely climb
up to 4 feet briefly tomorrow aft and evening. Additional
showers and thunderstorms likely overnight Mon as front
approaches waters.

Outlook (Monday night through Friday): Benign boating
conditions continue Tues and Wed with eyes to next potential SCA
late next week with a stronger frontal boundary. Each day will
bring a low to moderate risk (20-40%) of showers and
thunderstorms to area waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 08/17 (Monday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern       96 / 1988     (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras  93 / 2021     (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     99 / 1988     (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City  93 / 1984     (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       101 / 1938     (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville   97 / 1995     (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/MS/RCF
AVIATION...RM/RCF
MARINE...RM/MS/RCF