960
FXUS62 KMHX 171116
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
716 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front draped across ENC this morning will eventually
lift north as a warm front today. High pressure then builds in for
a couple of days. A weak front may impact the area Thursday or
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 630 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Scattered strong thunderstorms with heavy rain and gusty
   winds today

 - Moderate heat risk today, with "feels like" temperatures of
   100- 105

Early this morning, there appears to be several MCVs traversing
central and eastern NC. These all should eventually move out of
the area, but until they do, there appears to be sufficient
moisture and instability to support scattered thunderstorms with
heavy rain and gusty winds through just after sunrise.

Later today, a stalled front draped west to east across the HWY
264 corridor should begin to lift north as the southwesterly
low-level flow begins to gradually increase. This will put ENC
well into the warm sector. The main difference today compared to
the past few days is that forcing looks to be much lower thanks
to a lack of shortwaves moving through. Because of this, it
looks like the coverage of thunderstorms will be lower, and
mainly tied to the diurnal sea/bay/river breezes. Strong heating
of a very moist boundary layer should allow moderate to strong
instability to build across the area, with MLCAPE of
2000-3000j/kg. Deep layer shear is forecast to be weak
(20-25kt), setting up a pulse severe environment. Weaker forcing
may make it harder for sustained deep convection, but the
tallest cores today will be capable of strong wind gusts (40-60
mph) and small hail. Of note, if any core can be sustained for a
longer period of time where convergence is maximized, there is
the potential for hail of penny to quarter size. Overall,
though, the severe weather risk looks LOW. Where thunderstorms
develop, the residually moist airmass will continue to favor
intense rainfall rates. While widespread heavy rain is not
anticipated, an instance or two of flash flooding cannot be
ruled out, with this risk primarily focused over areas that have
seen the most rain over the past couple of days.

The lowered coverage of thunderstorms should allow temperatures
to be hotter today compared to the past couple of days. This
means low 90s inland and mid to upper 80s along the coast. For
inland areas, heat indices ("feels like" temps) are forecast to
reach the 100-105 range. It looks like we will stay just shy of
Heat Advisory criteria, but notable nonetheless.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Increasing inhibition this evening and tonight, plus an overall
lack of forcing, should lead to a diurnal decrease in
convective activity, with the risk shifting offshore. Meanwhile,
a modest southwesterly LLJ and weak WAA should keep
temperatures very warm tonight (mid to upper 70s).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330AM Tue...

Key Messages:

- Impactful heat on Wednesday and Thursday.

- Weakening cold front will bring a threat for a few isolated
  strong thunderstorms Thursday evening

- Potential for dangerous heat indices late this weekend and
  into early next week

Wed into early next week...Upper ridging will be anchored off
the Southeast Coast on Wednesday with a neutrally tilted upper
trough in the Plains progressing E`wards. Ridging should push
further away from the coast on Thurs and Fri as the
aforementioned upper trough continues E`wards and pushes into
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. At the same time, mid level
shortwave will push E`wards from the Plains and eventually track
across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Thurs night into Fri
riding along this upper troughing. Troughing quickly pushes off
the coast on Sat and is replaced by a "heat dome" as strong
upper and surface ridging builds over the eastern half of the
CONUS with this ridging not moving much through early next week
once it becomes established.

At the surface, low pressure in the Midwest will track NE`wards
into eastern Canada on Thurs/Fri while its associated cold
front tracks east eventually pushing into the Carolinas Thurs
evening, finally pushing offshore Fri morning. Prior to the
frontal passage, expect a chance for some isolated seabreeze
thunderstorms just inland from the coast on Wed. Hot and humid
conditions are also forecast across ENC on Wed and Thurs with
temps each day reaching the low to mid 90s, with mid to upper
80s noted along the OBX and immediate coast. Combined with
dewpoints in the 70s, heat indices across ENC will likely reach
100-110 each day bringing the first chance at seeing heat
advisory criteria. Regardless of heat advisory issuance, given
the extended period of hot and humid temps Wed/Thurs and lack of
respite from the heat overnight Wed, there is a significant
risk for heat related illnesses especially for those without
proper cooling or adequate hydration.

In addition to this, as the previously mentioned cold front
approaches from the west on Thurs, a surface trough will
develop along the Coastal Plain and allow for for organized
thunderstorm activity to develop along out ahead of this front
with precip chances quickly increasing from west to east Thurs
evening. With hot and humid conditions in place, instability
will build with SBCAPE values reaching 2000-3000 J/kg by Thurs
afternoon. In addition to this, deep layer shear around 25-35
kts should promote a threat for some isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and hail being the
primary concern within the strongest storms.

Afterwards front pushes offshore ending the shower and
thunderstorm threat from west to east Fri morning. Upper and
surface ridging builds over the Eastern CONUS and while Fri/Sat
may be the coolest days of the week, dangerous heat returns to
ENC Sun into Mon next week with the first significant heat wave
potentially impacting the Eastern Seaboard during this
timeframe. EFI probs do show anomalous heat and wouldn`t be
surprised if we saw continued above Avg temps Sun/Mon. Daily
sea breeze thunderstorm chances will be possible Fri/Sat and
Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12z Wednesday/...
As of 630 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - TSRA risk lower today

An area of SHRA and TSRA will move offshore of the ENC coast by
13z this morning, followed by a lull in activity for several
hours. By this afternoon, isolated to scattered TSRA are
expected to redevelop along the seabreeze. It should be noted
that the coverage of TSRA is expected to be noticeably lower
than what has occurred over the past few days. For now, I`ve
highlighted the seabreeze TSRA with PROB30s, as confidence is
low to moderate at any one TAF site. The TSRA risk should
quickly diminish after sunset this evening. Where TSRA develop,
there will be a risk of 30-50kt winds, small hail, and
significant reductions to VIS (LIFR/IFR).

An area of low CIGs this morning should scatter out over the
next few hours, with VFR conditions then prevailing for the
remainder of the TAF period (outside of TSRA).

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330AM Tue...Primarily VFR conditions expected across the
terminals starting on Wed as a more summer like pattern returns
to the area. Will see a chance for some seabreeze thunderstorms
on Wed which could result in a brief period of sub-VFR condition
mainly across the SW`rn zones (EWN/OAJ terminals). A weak cold
front will push through the area on Thursday evening, once
again bringing a second brief threat for sub-VFR conditions and
thunderstorm chances to ENC Thursday evening and overnight.
Afterwards, ridging builds into the aera keeping any sub-VFR
threat relegated to seabreeze thunderstorm activity each
afternoon from Fri into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Lower thunderstorm risk today and tonight

Scattered thunderstorms ongoing early this morning are
associated with various upper level waves moving through the
area. The thunderstorm activity this morning will be capable of
gusty winds of 30-40kt and waterspouts. Once this activity
shifts further out to sea, there should be a relative minimum in
thunderstorm activity compared to the past couple of days. The
main risk today will be along the inland-advancing seabreeze,
primarily impacting the inland rivers and sounds. The
thunderstorm risk then shifts back offshore to the coastal
waters by tonight.

Outside of thunderstorm activity, a modest southwesterly
background flow of 10-20kt is expected through tonight. A few
gusts to 25kt will be possible in the areas that are typically
impacted by the strongest thermal gradient (Pamlico Sound and
the central and southern coastal waters). Seas of 3-5 ft are
expected through tonight.

LONG TERM /Wednesday though Saturday/...
As of 330AM Tue... Surface ridge settles in offshore on Wed with
a thermal trough setting up Wed afternoon. This should allow
for ongoing 15-20 kt SW`rly breezes to increase to 20-25 kts
across the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters south of Oregon
Inlet Wed afternoon and evening before winds ease again Thurs
morning back down to 15-20 kts across all waters. Then as we get
into Thursday with the approach of a cold front the gradient
pinches allowing for winds to once again increase to 15-25 kts
across most waters this time. In addition to this, showers and
thunderstorms will also be possible with the frontal passage
Thurs night into Fri morning. This will bring multiple chances
at SCA conditions both Wed and Thurs. Once front pushes offshore
on Fri, winds ease for the weekend down to 5-10 kts becoming
W-NW`rly behind the front Fri then S`rly by Sat evening as
ridging builds into the area. Seas remain around 3-5 ft through
the period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...RM/RCF
MARINE...RM/RCF