417
FXUS62 KMHX 231035
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
635 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated. No significant changes from the
previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected to
impact eastern NC through Friday night with a risk of flooding
and a few strong to severe thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Frontal boundary has made little progress
southward since this evening`s update, currently draped across
southern VA while pre-frontal trough remains largely stationary
from Norfolk and Hampton Roads into the Research Triangle
region. Trough axis remains very active this morning as robust
LLJ of SW winds 30-40 kt continues to feed anomalously deep
tropical moisture off the eastern periphery of TC Bertha over
the boundary. Overall kinematics may weaken slightly tonight but
not enough to prevent ongoing rounds of showers and a few
thunderstorms.

The pre-frontal trough and associated low-level convergence will
be slow to shift southward this morning - WoFs runs overnight
point to the axis of heaviest rainfall through 12z likely
sitting north of Kinston and potentially setting up across
western portions of Pitt and Martin counties. If more robust
convection does end up training over this corridor flash
flooding could develop in the next few hours over this area.

Low-level convergence will gradually shift south from VA into
northern NC later this morning as the above-mentioned front and
pre- frontal trough begin to phase. The front is then expected
to stall across ENC later today, and may not push offshore
until sometime on Saturday. Where the front ends up stalling
remains uncertain; a more progressive solution yesterday morning
has now reverted back to a slower progression in the 00z suite.

A plume of anomalous, and deep, moisture is forecast to reside
along the stalled frontal zone, with lift aided by periods of
WAA and large-scale support from passing shortwaves. Rainfall
rates will be aided by moderate instability through at least
Friday, then instability begins to wane after that. The overall
synoptic pattern supports periods of heavy rain and excessive
rainfall rates with an accompanying risk of flooding and flash
flooding. This is also supported by various forecast aids,
including the ECMWF EFI, which continues to show a strong
signal for heavy rain over the area through tonight.

Given the continued lack of run-to-run consistency on frontal
placement and progression, where the strongest low-level forcing
and thus most intense rainfall rates will occur remains a bit of
a question mark. Most guidance still shows rates shifting south
rather quickly this afternoon to along the southern coastline,
but more members now suggest the front will hang up somewhere
between New Bern and the coast with multiple rounds of
convection likely hanging on through Friday. Although this would
favor less severe flooding concerns to the north where
overrunning rainfall would be more likely, this would increase
the potential for more extreme rainfall totals of up to 5-8"
along the NC24 corridor and areas north. This signal is
particularly strong on Friday, where the REFS has probabilities
of totals exceeding 5" of 40-50% for this very area.

Overall, guidance ultimately changed little with rainfall
totals with the Flood Watch still reflecting areal average
amounts of 3-5" with a risk of locally higher amounts. Areas
along NC11 and west, extending northeast to the VA border remain
in a Moderate (Level 3/4) risk of excessive rainfall for today
while the rest of the area sits in Slight (Level 2/4). Slight
risks remain for the whole area on Friday and along the southern
coastline into Saturday.

A very marginal severe risk remains possible early this morning
into tomorrow mainly along and north of Highway 264. Deep,
moist profiles should tend to favor water- loaded downdrafts,
but some enhanced low- level shear may support a brief/weak
tornado.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rain beginning to encroach southward as cold front over southern
Virginia continues to ease its way southward this morning. EWN
has already dropped to MVFR and expect PGV and ISO to follow
suit shortly within the next couple of hours. Periods of very
heavy rainfall rates expected within this line, lowering vis to
IFR/LIFR at times. Axis of more intense showers and storms will
push towards the Crystal Coast this afternoon but overrunning
precip will remain a risk for terminals to the north. Here, odds
increase for IFR cigs with weaker northeasterly winds especially
after 18z. South of the boundary, more prevailing MVFR is
expected with a higher likelihood of experiencing intense
rainfall rates. All sites trend towards IFR late tonight (likely
after 04z) and lingering through the end of the period.

Outlook (Friday through Monday): A stalled front will continue
to support rounds of SHRA and TSRA through Friday, with drier
air trying to move in by the weekend. Sub-VFR conditions will
accompany the SHRA/TSRA, with low CIGs potentially lasting into
the first half of the weekend depending on how quickly the drier
air moves in.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate southwesterly winds of 15-25kt will continue through
this morning. The front is forecast to reach the northern
waters early this morning, then stall across the central waters
during the day. As the front moves in, the gradient will relax
and winds will lay down to 5-15kt. Seas have slowly been
trending down this morning, still hovering at around 4-6 feet
but expected to ease further as frontal boundary stalls and
winds collapse. The front will be accompanied by an increased
risk of thunderstorms for all waters, especially today and then
trending towards Onslow and Raleigh Bays Friday and potentially
into Saturday.

Outlook (Friday through Monday): A stalled front will continue
to support an increased risk of thunderstorms through Friday,
before ending across the southern waters by Saturday. Winds are
expected to be noticeably lighter along the front over the next
few days. However, a more dominant northerly flow will replace
the recent stretch of southwesterly flow. Within this regime,
seas of 2-4ft are expected through the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through Friday morning for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-
     203.
     Flood Watch through Friday evening for NCZ090>092-094-193>196-
     198-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ135-
     152-154-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RM/MS
AVIATION...RM/MS/RJ
MARINE...RM/MS