306
FXUS62 KMHX 080827
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
327 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move off the coast early today with low
pressure developing along it, bringing a wintry mix to portions
of the area. High pressure will build back over the area mid
week. Another low and cold front move in late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

Key messages...

 - Widespread dense fog across much of ENC this morning

 - Wintry mix develops this afternoon across northwest
   counties.

Clear skies and calm winds have allowed widespread fog to
develop across most of ENC early this morning with visibilities
reduced to 1/4-1/2 mi for may areas away from the immediate
coast and have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for much of the FA
through 8 am. Most areas remain above freezing although a few
locations have dropped to 32 degrees. However, the latent heat
release from freezing should keep temps from dropping further
keeping concerns for freezing fog low, but will continue to
monitor temp trends through dawn.

A challenging forecast continues through the short term as a
shortwave trough swings through the Southeast states and
cyclogenesis occurs off the Carolina Coast. A combination of
lowering thicknesses through the day, along with column cooling
through inc lift/uvv and precip loading will lead to rain
changing to a ra/sn mix, possibly mostly snow for our nwrn
counties. Model differences persist with similar biases as
previously discussed, (NAM/FV3/GFS) indicating a colder column
and more rapid changeover to snow, while the Euro, AIFS, CMC,
HRRR are warmer aloft and retain snow the far northwest.

Latest guidance has trended downward slightly with snowfall
amounts, although probabilities for 1" of snow continue around
~40-60% along the Hwy 64 corridor from western Washington Co to
northern Pitt Co, including nearly all of Martin Co, and will
keep the Winter Wx Advisory for these counties. Probabilities
drop to less than 30% south of the Hwy 264 corridor, which makes
the most sense, as temps will be well above freezing through
the day, making it difficult for snow to accumulate. The NAM/GFS
remain much too bullish on snow amounts given the warmer
initial conditions. By the time temps fall to freezing and below
Mon evening, snow should be tapering off quickly from w to e.
For the eastern and southern counties, predominantly rain is
fcst.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday...

Key messages...

 - Wintry mix tapers off through the evening. Snowfall totals up
   to 1" northwest counties with little to no accumulations
   expected elsewhere.

 - Black ice formation tonight to Tue AM as temperatures fall
   into the 20s. Wet roads from rain and snow Monday become icy
   later Mon night, impacting the Tuesday morning commute.

Precipitation will taper off from W to E throughout the evening
with CAA continuing to bring falling temps overnight. Could see
some light snow farther east as the precip is ending but not
expecting much if any accumulation. Biggest impacts from the
snow and precipitation will be the development of black ice, as
temperatures fall through the 20s during the overnight period.
Any rain or snow that falls during the day will freeze up
overnight, esp on elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses,
leading to hazardous conditions for the Tue morning commute.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday...

Key messages...

 - Dry and seasonably cold mid week.

 - Another system with limited moisture will push through late
   week with much much colder temps next weekend.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Dry conditions expected as high
pressure builds back in at the surface. Highs in the 40s Tue
warming back into the 50s to near 60 Wed as winds become SW.
Good radiational cooling will bring lows into the 20s for most
of Mainland ENC, with 30s on the beaches and OBX Tue night/Wed
morning.

Thursday through Saturday...A couple of northern stream
shortwaves push across the area during the latter half of the
week but moisture remains quite limited and guidance continues
to trend downward with PoPs. At this time, ptype looks to
remain all liquid. Much colder air expected behind the front for
next weekend with highs back into the 40s and lows in the 20s,
and possibly teens inland on Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1 AM Monday...

Key Messages...

- IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities continue through dawn
  Monday morning

- IFR conditions will largely persist through most of tomorrow
  as rain/snow moves into the area

Conditions have quickly deteriorated over the past couple of
hours as dense fog has developed across much of ENC, with all
TAF sites except ISO noting VIS at or under 1/2 mile. Guidance
has handled the onset timing and density of fog poorly thus far
tonight. Current expectation is for fog to persist for another
few hours before beginning to mix out around dawn as winds
increase as a low begins to develop offshore. While this will
likely lead to improving VIS in the morning, IFR ceilings are
expected to persist through the morning, with only a low chance
(20-30%) of seeing temporary improvements to MVFR ceilings
Monday morning. With temperatures hovering at or slightly below
freezing across the northwestern portions of the forecast area
(across Pitt, Martin, and Greene Counties, and including PGV),
freezing fog is also possible tonight.

Rain is then forecast to track into the area starting late
morning into the early afternoon from west to east. A
changeover to a mix of rain and snow and then all snow is
forecast late afternoon/early evening with the greatest risk
for this to occur being across PGV/ISO and the northwestern
portions of the forecast area. There remains potential for a
more widespread changeover to snow (or rain/snow mix) across
additional terminals as far south as OAJ/EWN but have opted to
only include mention of -SNRA within a PROB30 group for these
terminals as of this cycle. Northerly winds increase today,
peaking in the afternoon hours with gusts to around 20 kts
expected, before decreasing overnight. IFR conditions are
likely to continue at least into the evening hours.

Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions may persist into Tuesday morning
before VFR conditions return through at least midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 AM Monday...

Key Messages

 - Strong winds and dangerous seas expected through tonight.

 - Small Craft Advisory to low end Gales possible Wednesday and
   Wednesday night.

Through Tue...A cold front passes through early today with an
area of low pressure developing along it across the offshore
waters bringing strong north to northeast winds through tonight.
Continue the Gale warning for all waters except the inland
rivers with strong SCA conditions are expected. Seas build up to
7-11 ft across the northern and central waters and 5-9 ft
south. Wind diminish fairly quickly Tuesday with seas slowly
subsiding through Tuesday night.

Wed...The break in strong winds and high seas is short-lived,
as a swrly gradient inc later Wed through Wed night, with speeds
of 15-25 kt expected, and 25-35 kt over the warm Gulf waters
south of Oregon Inlet. Seas build back up to 6-10 ft south of
Oregon Inlet.

Thu through Fri...Winds and seas relax as high pres builds back
into the region, with NW winds generally 5-15 kt and seas of 2-4
ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ029-044-
     045-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight
     EST tonight for NCZ029-044-045.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this
     evening for AMZ131-230-231.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight
     for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight EST
     tonight for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK/TL
LONG TERM...SK/TL
AVIATION...ZC
MARINE...SK/TL