475
FXUS62 KMHX 080018
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
818 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm conditions are expected through Wednesday. A cold
front tracks across the region late Wednesday with scattered showers
and breezy conditions. High pressure builds to the north behind
the stalled cold front to end the work week, while a coastal
storm forms off the coast this weekend. King Tides are expected
through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 8 PM Tue...High pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic
coast will persist overnight, with ridging aloft. Though high
pressure will remain in control, increasing moisture in the low
levels as well as some friction land/sea convergence will lead
to isolated to scattered light showers along the southern NC
coast for the rest of this evening. Overnight shower activity
wil pivot northeastward towards the OBX as the high begins to
shift with a front approaching. Generally mostly cloudy skies
are expected overnight, though some breaks are possible over the
SW coastal plain, and here there could be some patchy fog by
early tomorrow morning. Light winds and clouds will keep temps
very mild along the coast, with lows only in the upper 60s to
low 70s, while over the coastal plain some better cooling will
result in lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tue...Upper ridge will break down as a strong
northern stream trough digs into the Northern Plains and Midwest
with sfc high pressure pushes offshore and sfc cold front
approaching from the NW. Scattered showers and isolated storms
expected to develop ahead of the front Wednesday, with best
chances in the afternoon and evening. Instability remains
limited but strong forcing will likely be enough to support tstm
development. Periods of occasionally moderate heavy rainfall
possible, with a low flooding threat. Low level thickness
values and SSW flow support above normal temps again, with highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Tuesday...Behind this cold front, high pressure
builds in and strong pressure gradient sets up. This will result
in gusty NE winds, highest over coastal zones. The gusty winds
and higher seas paired with king tides would bring coastal
flooding concerns. See Coastal Flooding section for more
information.

Front stalls offshore near the gulf stream after passing through
Thursday. Upper level trough then moves through over the
weekend, which will likely spin up a coastal low along this
stalled front this weekend. Warm waters and lack of steering
flow may allow the forecasted coastal low to sit over warm
offshore waters and strengthen rapidly. Confidence is increasing
in a coastal low forming, but strength, location, and impacts
are still up in the air. See Coastal Flooding section for
possible impact scenarios from this coastal low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday Afternoon/...
As of 8 PM Tue...Mostly VFR conditions are present this evening
across the airspace, though skies are mostly cloudy with a wide
range of cloudbases. Clouds may stick around for much of the
night, especially along the coast where some scattered showers
will also occur, but there may be some breaks in the clouds
across the SW coastal plain including KOAJ and KISO. Here, some
patchy MVFR fog may develop, with some potential for IFR level
fog at least briefly. Some areas of low stratus may also develop
in this region, with a brief period of IFR ceilings possible.
Elsewhere some 5 miles or greater fog is possible if there are
any breaks in the clouds overnight, otherwise conditions should
remain VFR.

Tomorrow, rain showers will move in from the NW as a cold front
move into the area. Ceilings may drop to MVFR levels for a few
hours as the front and associated showers move through. Also,
some embedded thunderstorms are possible to develop with the
front tomorrow afternoon. Rain will be ending from NW to SE and
ceilings clearing by this time tomorrow.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 5 AM Tuesday...Cold front may bring scattered showers and
a few rumbles of thunder Wednesday PM, temporarily lowering
cigs and vis. Behind this front, gusty NE winds are expected
Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds in. Friday into
Saturday a coastal low is likely to develop off the SE coast,
bringing gusty winds. Other impacts like cigs, and rain/tstorm
chances depend on the location of the low, which is still
uncertain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 3 PM Tue...Latest obs show E-SE winds 5-15 kt with seas
3-5 ft. High pressure will remain in control through Wed, with a
cold front approaching late Wed. Winds will continue to grad
veer tonight, becoming S-SW late tonight and Wed. Seas will
generally be in the 2-4 ft range, with some 5 ft sets in the
outer waters.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 330 Tue...SCAs issued for NE surge Wed night and
continuing into the weekend. Wednesday PM into early Thursday a
cold front moves through, bringing chances of rain ahead of it,
and gusty NE winds behind it as high pressure moves in. Current
expectation is for NE gusts around 30-40 knots for most marine
zones, and chances for seeing gale force gusts have been
steadily trending up over the past couple days. Friday into
Saturday, coastal low is expected to develop of the SE US coast.
This will bring hazardous marine conditions thanks to very
gusty winds and dangerous seas.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 340 PM Tue...Coastal Flood Watch issued for Hatteras and
Ocracoke Islands with potential for moderate to locally major
impacts. Main concern is oceanside, with the potential for
additional soundside impacts this weekend.

Coastal Flood Advisories issued for Northern OBX, southern
coastal counties and eastern counties adjacent to the western
Pamlico Sound, for minor to locally moderate impacts beginning
Thursday and continuing into the weekend.

King Tides and potential for strong NE flow mid to late next
week. This week we enter a king tide cycle, with astronomically
high tides. The highest tides are expected into Saturday
(10/11), peaking Thursday. In addition to the King Tides, strong
NE winds will develop Thursday, resulting in potential for minor
to moderate cf impacts. This would help waves build along the
coast, and may also help push some water towards the southern
Pamlico Sound and Neuse river. Confidence is increasing on the
strength of the winds, and the compounding effects of strong
winds, higher seas, and king tides could cause greater impacts
for areas with vulnerable dune structures along OBX Thursday and
Friday. However, shorter wave periods Thursday and Friday may
limit the power behind the waves.

This weekend, a deep upper level trough moves through the
eastern US, which will help spin up a coastal low offshore this
weekend thanks to the baroclinicity on the edge of the warm
Gulf Stream waters. While there is variation in strength,
location, and impacts for ENC, at the very least this coastal
low will bring elevated seas and winds. This, paired with higher
than normal tides (although King Tides will have abated by
then) could bring continuing coastal impacts (ocean and
soundside) on top of any impacts mentioned Thursday-Friday. Of
note, wave periods are expected to be higher this weekend, which
would increase the power of the waves. Coastal concerns highest
this weekend with potential for significant ocean overwash
(Outer Banks), beach erosion, coastal flooding and dangerous
rip currents.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Monday
     for NCZ080-094-194>196-199-203.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Wednesday through
     Wednesday evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Monday
     morning for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ131-150-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ135-137-152-154-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Friday
     for AMZ136.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/SGK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...CQD/SGK/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX