715
FXUS62 KMHX 081945
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
245 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move off the coast today with low pressure
developing along it, bringing a wintry mix to portions of the
area. High pressure will build back over the area mid week.
Another low and cold front move in late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Mon...

Key messages...

 - Rain and snow this evening, with light snow accumulations for
   the northwest counties before midnight.

Shortwave trough swings through the Southeast states and
cyclogenesis occurs off the Carolina Coast through this eve. A
combination of lowering thicknesses, along with column cooling
through inc lift/uvv and precip loading will lead to rain
changing to a ra/sn mix, possibly mostly snow for our nwrn
counties. Latest obs indicate ra/sn line advancing south and
east through the nrn parts of NC. Fcst on track with a ra/sn mix
by the evening commute time, becoming predominantly snow before
precip ends this evening. Snow showers possible as far east as
the Hwy 17 corridor from J`ville to New Bern, northward towards
Beaufort county, before precip comes to an end. Little to no
(<0.5") accums expected outside of the advisory counties of
Pitt, Martin, Washington.

Next threat for tonight will be patches of black ice, as temps
drop through the 20s late tonight and into Tue AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday...

Key messages...

 - Patchy black ice early Tue. Wet roads from rain and snow
   tonight become icy, impacting the Tuesday morning commute.

Areas most susceptible to black ice will be elevated surfaces
such as bridges and overpasses. Temps will be cold for early
December, with highs generally only in the mid 40s for most
locales. The good news is that the sun will finally make an
appearance, though brisk northerly breezes will keep it on the
cold side.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Mon...

Key messages...

 - Dry and seasonably cold mid week.

 - Another cold front moves through late week, though it appears
   to pass through on the dry side.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Dry conditions expected as high
pressure builds back in at the surface. Highs warming back
into the 50s to near 60 Wed as winds become SW. Good radiational
cooling will bring lows into the 20s for most of Mainland ENC,
with 30s on the beaches and OBX Tue night/Wed morning.

Thursday through Friday...A couple of northern stream
shortwaves push across the area during the latter half of the
week but moisture remains quite limited and guidance continues
to trend downward with PoPs. At this time, ptype looks to remain
all liquid, but pops lowered to only 10%.

Saturday through Monday...Much colder air expected behind the
front for next weekend with highs back into the 40s and lows in
the 20s, and possibly teens inland on Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 2 PM Mon...

Key Messages...

- IFR ceilings and visibilities developing late this
  afternoon/early evening as rain changes to snow across ENC

- IFR ceilings will hold on through most of tonight, until drier
  air finally moves in to the area early tomorrow morning and
  VFR returns

Light rain has developed across most of the airspace early this
afternoon as a low pressure system moves across the Carolinas.
This has brought MVFR ceilings to most of the area with some
locations along the coast remaining VFR for now. As we go
through the afternoon, rain will become steadier, and will
eventually change to snow across the northern half of ENC, with
ceilings dropping to IFR levels. Visibilities will also be
reduced where snow mixes in with rain, or completely changes
over, and this will vary between 1-4 miles. Snow/rain tapers off
late this evening, however low level stratus will be stubborn to
dissipate until drier air moves in early tomorrow morning. VFR
conditions will finally return to the airspace from west to east
after midnight, and should persist through the rest of tomorrow.

Outlook: VFR conditions return until this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 PM Mon...

Key Messages

 - Strong winds and dangerous seas expected through tonight.

 - Southwest winds increase with Small Craft Advisories
   expected, with Gales on the Gulf Stream possible Wednesday
   and Wednesday night.

Through Tue...A cold front passing through this afternoon with area
of low pressure developing along it across the offshore waters
bringing strong north to northeast winds through tonight.
Continue the Gale warning for all waters except the inland
rivers with strong SCA conditions are expected. Seas build up to
7-11 ft across the northern and central waters and 5-9 ft
south. Wind diminish fairly quickly Tuesday with seas slowly
subsiding through Tuesday night.

Wed...The break in strong winds and high seas is short-lived,
as a swrly gradient inc later Wed through Wed night, with speeds
of 15-25 kt expected, and 25-35 kt over the warm Gulf waters
south of Oregon Inlet. Seas build back up to 6-10 ft south of
Oregon Inlet.

Thu through Fri...Winds and seas relax as high pres builds back
into the region, with NW winds generally 5-15 kt and seas of 2-4
ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NCZ029-
     044-045.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for AMZ131-230-231.
     Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...TL