846
FXUS62 KMHX 151900
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will dip south into portions of Eastern
North Carolina through Monday, leading to unsettled conditions
through the early part of the week. The front then shifts back
north by mid week with drier high pressure returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Thunderstorms with a risk of flooding, strong winds, and an
   isolated tornado through this evening.

 - Flood Watch remains in effect generally along and north of
   Hwy 264 through tonight.

A mid-level shortwave is analyzed on H2O vapor satellite imagery
over WNC and E TN and KY. At the surface, a stalled sfc backdoor
front resides across nern NC and will join forces with the
incoming shrortwave to initiate thunderstorms aross the region
late afternoon through the evening.

As opposed to the last several days, where afternoon convection
was tied to the diurnal cycle due to lack of upper support, the
incoming dynamics with aforementioned short wave will actually
increase activity as we approach and move through the evening.

Heating of a very moist boundary layer is leading to moderate
destabilization, with MLCAPE vals approaching 2K J/KG, with
little to no inhibition. Given the moist, unstable, and uncapped
airmass, isolated to scattered convection should initially
develop along the developing sea/river/sound/bay breezes. The
expectation is that this activity will then expand in coverage,
intensity, and organization as the above-mentioned shortwave
moves through with a modest increase in large-scale forcing and
deep layer shear this evening.

The biggest threat with storms through this evening is heavy
rain and areas of flooding, and 3-6" of rain is still forecast
for northern parts of ENC in vcnty of the frontal boundary.
Localized higher amounts of over 6" is possible, per latest
several runs of HREF LPPM. It should be noted that if the
boundary remains or drifts just north of ENC, the higher risk
of flooding would be focused to the north of the Almbemarle
Sound.

Later tonight, any showers and storms will tend to diminish in
intensity and coverage as they drift south of Hwy 264, and flood
risk should diminish through the late night hours. Scattered
thunderstorms with localized areas of heavy rain and gusty winds
may still be a threat through dawn as they move through
southern portions of ENC, as instability will still remain
moderately high even through the late night hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Aforementioned stalled front will still be
draped across ENC to start your work week. Another round of
thunderstorms appears likely for the afternoon hours. Depending
on how quickly debris clouds from the overnight convection
exits, destabilization could be greater or lower. More sunshine
means a higher risk for severe storms, greatest threat localized
wet microbursts, while clouds lingering through the day would
mean less instability and storms not as strong. Attm retained
likely pops due to the front and shortwave still in vicinity.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330AM Sun...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather pattern into Tuesday with a chance for strong
thunderstorms and heavy rain on Monday

- Potential for dangerous heat indices midweek into the end of next
week.

Tuesday...Some minor tweaks to the forecast for Tuesday, but
overall the general pattern remains the same as upper ridging
will remain off the Southeast Coast while a weak and slow moving
upper trough tracks across the Southeast Mon/Tue. Further to
the west, a stronger but neutrally tilted upper trough will
quickly progress across the Pacific Northwest and enter into the
Plains Tues night and this will be our next potential weather-
maker. At the mid levels, several weak but notable shortwaves
will be transiting the base of the upper trough across the Mid-
Atlantic and Southeast which will promote widespread lift across
the area. At the surface, stalled front will gradually lift
N`wards Mon night into Tue. By Tue we return to more diurnally
driven showers/tstms associated with the Seabreeze circulation
and mid level shortwave transiting the region.

Wednesday through next weekend...Previously mentioned upper trough
will be the main feature of note into the end of the week with this
neutrally tilted trough pushing E`wards into the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast by Fri. Currently GFS is the deepest and slowest with this
trough with the Canadian and ECWMF guidance slightly quicker and
weaker with the trough. Either way, at the surface we return to a
more summer like pattern with thunderstorms primarily focused along
the Seabreeze on Wed/Thurs with an incoming surface cold front
from the west becoming the focus for potential shower/tstm
activity on Fri. High pressure ridging then builds into the area
over the weekend once again drying the area out. Of bigger note
will be the hot and muggy conditions expected around midweek as
a combination of temps in the 90s Wed/Thurs and dewpoints in
the 70s will result in hazardous heat indices with "feels like"
temps closer to the 100-110 F range each day. Will have to
monitor trends, but the years first heat advisories may be
needed next week if the current forecast holds. Once cold front
pushes through on Friday temps will decrease slightly and the
excessive heat threat will lower this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 2 PM Sunday...Confidence in TSRA is highest from KPGV to
KFFA, with lower confidence elsewhere. The lower confidence is
more related to timing than occurrence. However, as pops ramp up
to 50+% this evening, TEMPO groups for thunder have been added
for all but KOAJ, where more iso to sct coverage may occur to
the south. As the above- mentioned upper level wave shifts
offshore, the TSRA risk is expected to gradually decrease
towards daybreak. The TSRA risk is then expected to be followed
up by a risk of low CIGs (IFR/MVFR) late tonight esp north and
east of Hwy 70.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 330AM Sun...Unsettled weather will continue to persist
across the area into midweek as a stalled front will bring a
threat for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to
Eastern North Carolina Mon. A more summer like pattern returns
with diurnal thunderstorm activity developing along the
Seabreeze on Tue/Wed. Either way this will bring a daily threat
for sub-VFR conditions each day. In addition to this, early
morning fog development will remain possible for areas that see
rain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Mon/...
As of 3 PM Sun...A weak area of low pressure is forecast to
move east across northeastern NC and the nearby coastal waters
later tonight, supporting an increased risk of thunderstorms.
Where thunderstorms develop, there will be the potential for
30-50kt wind gusts and waterspouts. The greatest thunderstorm
risk through tonight looks to be focused across the inland
rivers and sounds as well as the coastal waters north of Cape
Hatteras.

A tightened pressure gradient south of the above-mentioned
surface low should support another round of elevated winds and
seas. Outside of thunderstorms, southwesterly winds of 15-25kt
are expected, strongest across the Pamlico Sound. Additionally,
seas of 3-4 ft are expected. These conditions will be close to
Small Craft Advisory criteria, but confidence is low enough to
hold off for now.

LONG TERM /Monday though Thursday/...
As of 330AM Sun...A stalled frontal boundary will bisect our
waters from west to east, generally from around Lenoir county
east across the Pamlico Sound, and just north of Hatteras Island
into our coastal waters. This stalled front will bring a threat
for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms Mon into Tue
across all our waters with locally enhanced winds and seas noted
within the strongest activity. In addition to this, light NE-E
winds at 5-10 kts will be noted along the N side of this front
on Mon (so Albemarle to northern half of the Pamlico Sound and
along the coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras with 10-15 kt
SW`rly winds noted south of the front Mon morning. Front will
gradually lift N`wards through Tue allowing for the entire area
to see SW`rly winds at 10-15 kts with gusts up near 20 kts. By
Wed as high pressure settles into the region and thermal
troughing sets up the gradient will pinch slightly allowing
SW`rly winds Tue night into Wed to increase to 15-20 kts with
occasional gusts up near 25 kts at times into Thurs. Seas will
generally remain around 2-5 ft through the period keeping us SCA
free through at least midweek.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 3 PM Sunday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop in
a moderately unstable, and anomalously moist, airmass later
today through tonight. The airmass will be supportive of
rainfall rates of 0.50"-0.75"/hr, with totals of 0.50"-2" where
thunderstorms develop. These rates and amounts may support a few
instances of flooding/flash flooding, especially in urban and
flood prone areas. However, a locally higher risk of flooding
and flash flooding may develop across parts of the area,
depending on where a slow-moving frontal boundary stalls. Along
this boundary, ensemble guidance suggests rainfall amounts as
high as 3-5", with max rainfall amounts of 4-8"+ if training
thunderstorms develop. Guidance differs on where the greatest
risk will be focused, but there is enough of a signal to go
ahead and issue a Flood Watch for a portion of ENC for this
afternoon through tonight. The watch area highlights where the
heaviest rainfall rates (1"/hr+) will be possible, as well as
where flash flood guidance is lowest, and where soils are the
most susceptible to excessive runoff.

Monday will bring the next threat for heavy rain which will be
highly dependent on where the aforementioned front stalls.
Either way, with similar conditions to Sun in place across the
area widespread 1-2" of rain with locally higher amounts will be
possible on Monday and with already saturated soils from
previous days rainfall in place, there will once again be a
chance for flash flooding across parts of the CWA and a flood
watch may become necessary in the coming day or so for portions
of the CWA on Mon as well.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-
     091-203.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CQD/RCF
AVIATION...TL/RCF
MARINE...TL/RCF
HYDROLOGY...MHX