409
FXUS63 KMKX 032013
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
213 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Off and on periods of rain along with a few isolated storms
  continue through Thursday.

- Drier and cooler conditions Friday into Saturday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 213 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Tonight through Thursday night:

An upper level trough across the central CONUS will slowly move
north north east tonight through Thursday. Meanwhile at the sfc
there is a low pressure system over Minnesota and another near
central Kansas. The northern low pressure system is expected to
remain near stationary over the next couple of hours while the
southern low moves north. These two lows are expected to merge
and become vertically stacked with the 500mb trough. As the
system become vertically stacked, the sfc low is expected to
occlude. The occluded low should then slowly exit to the east
Thursday into Thursday night.

Under the influence low pressure, WAA and LLJ, on and off
showers will continue across southern Wisconsin this afternoon
through Thursday night. A few rumbles of thunder will be
possible at times as guidance highlights some MUCAPE around 200
J. This combined with the broad QG ascent across the western
Great Lakes Region will be the main drivers for any thunder. Any
storms that do develop are expected to be short lived, but could
produce locally heavy rain. The best chances for an thunder and
heavy rainfall is expected to be along a cold front that is
expected to pass tonight into Wednesday morning. The front
should provide some better forcing as it moves from the
southwest to the northeast. As it passes this should cut off the
WAA and limit any lingering MUCAPE and thus ending thunder
chances.

As the cold air begins to wrap around the low, Wednesday morning
into Wednesday afternoon this will be the period where occlusion
is beginning. Cutting off the WAA could bring a brief period of
dry weather in the wake of the front. What we are loosing is
some forcing and mid level ascent to get widespread rain for
southern Wisconsin. Cloud cover is expected to persist so can`t
guarantee a long or completely dry period of weather for
everyone across southern Wisconsin as broad (while weak) ascent
will still be in the state(rain chances 5-25%). The better
forcing should return when a secondary front starts to move from
the Dakotas into Wisconsin Wednesday late afternoon/evening
through Wednesday night(rain chances 20-50%). As the occluded
front lingers Thursday rain chances will continue to wrap around
the system keeping POPs elevated (rain chances 60-80%).

Overall this will be a long duration rain with many stops and
starts. Rain will be light to moderate with a few thunderstorms
possible at times. Any thunderstorms that develops could have
heavy rainfall. PWATs will generally be around 1 to 1.5 inches
at most which should keep rain totals under an inch across
southern Wisconsin.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 213 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Friday through Tuesday:

Low pressure continues to gradually fill in over the eastern Great
Lakes through Friday, leading to continued gusty north winds and a
few lingering wrap-around showers in the CSI region. Expect highs
in the upper 40s. Any lingering precipitation exits Friday night,
with a cold airmass sinking into the western Great Lakes as high
pressure builds in. Overnight lows in the low 30s are expected
under clearing skies and diminishing winds. Any remaining
sensitive vegetation should be covered or brought indoors. High
pressure continues to sink southward into the southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley, allowing winds to shift to southwesterly
on Saturday. Expect highs around 50 degrees.

High pressure lingers across the Plains and Lower Mississippi
Sunday through Monday, with multiple shortwaves moving along the
northern edges of the high through the Upper Midwest. Expecting
generally dry conditions to prevail, with perhaps a few passing
showers (~15% chances). If any shortwave becomes stronger or the
southern Plains high weakens faster, some more widespread
precipitation may develop. High pressure begins to shift eastward
Monday through Tuesday, bringing increasing southwesterly winds as
a stronger low propagates eastward through southern Canada.
Temperatures are expected to remain somewhat steady through early
next week, with highs around 60 degrees and lows in the mid-30s.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 213 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to continue through the
period. Scattered rain showers will persist this afternoon
through into Wednesday late morning/early afternoon. A short
lull in active Wednesday is possible with additional rain
expected Wednesday night into Thursday. Visibilities could fall
between 3-5 SM with any moderate rainfall. Ceilings around 1-3
kft this afternoon could fall to around 500-900 feet at times
this evening into tonight. These lower ceilings are moving up
from the south and are typically found with the more moderate
rainfall. With rainfall weakening as it moves north, ceilings
are slowly rising overtime. So only kept mentions for ceilings
below 1kft where confidence is the highest.

Breezy south-southeast winds this afternoon will remain through
tonight before becoming southwesterly Wednesday morning. Breezy
southwest winds are expected through Wednesday night.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 213 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Low pressure around 29.5 inches will continue to deepen to 29.4
inches and move northeastward into northern Wisconsin tonight,
bringing increasing southeasterly gales in the central third through
this evening before diminishing to around 30 kt overnight. Low
pressure continues to gradually progress eastward through northern
Wisconsin into southern Ontario through Wednesday night. Winds
gradually shift southwesterly through Wednesday into Wednesday
night. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Wednesday
afternoon for gusty winds and building waves. Winds remain
southwesterly into Thursday, with a cold front shifting winds
rapidly to north- northwesterly in the afternoon to overnight
hours. An additional period of gales is possible Thursday night
into Friday morning behind this cold front as low pressure exits
into Quebec. High pressure around 30.3 inches then builds into the
western Great Lakes region into Saturday, bringing diminishing
northerly winds. High pressure sinks into the Lower Mississippi
Valley on Sunday, allowing winds to shift to westerly.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872 until
     6 PM Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 3 PM
     Wednesday.

&&

$$

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