418
FXUS63 KMKX 040421
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1021 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold and blustery conditions with falling temperatures this
  afternoon. Wind chills tonight and early Thursday will fall to
  between -15 and -20 degrees.

- A cold and active pattern is favored next week, with
  additional opportunities for light snow Monday through
  Wednesday (30 to 60 percent chances, with the highest
  confidence in widespread light snow on Monday).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1015 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Skies have cleared behind the cold front, temperatures have
fallen and winds are slowly diminishing. The coldest night of
the season so far is underway with current temperatures in the
low to mid teens. CAA and light winds will cause the lows to
drop below zero into the negative single digits. Areas along the
immediate lake shore will be spared from the below zero temps
and hovering in the positive single digits. Wind chill
temperatures will drop to around -14 to -19 degrees. The coldest
of these temps around -19 look to only last an hr if that right
around sunrise. This remains just about Cold Weather Advisory
Criteria. Overall no major changes here. Just watching the
temperatures fall.

Patterson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 256 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Tonight through Thursday night:

The cold front is through Milwaukee and Janesville and arctic
air is spilling into southern WI. Northwest wind gusts are
remaining below 20 mph. As the environment cools, the clouds
will be within the snow growth zone before the dry air takes
over, so expect some flurries through early evening until the
clouds clear out. With the clearing skies and high pressure
ridging into southern WI overnight, expect winds to decouple for
all but the lakeshore.

Thus, expecting the coldest temperatures of the season so far
by early Thursday morning. Models are looking a little too warm
when comparing them to the 925mb temps of around -15C that are
moving in, so kept the hourly and minT values from the previous
forecast. Lows of -3 to -8F are expected inland, with -2 to +2
for the lakeshore counties. Wind chill values will bottom out
around -17 tonight, so no Cold Weather Advisory is needed
(criteria of -20). Tonight will be a case where the temp could
be lower than forecast in some cold pockets, but if that
happens, then there would be no wind. Similarly, temps could be
slightly warmer but that would require a breeze, so wind chill
values would still be in the -15 to -20 range.

Despite sunshine and light winds on Thursday, temperatures will
only rebound into the 10 to 15 degree range. Wind chills will
hover around 0.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 256 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Friday through Wednesday:

High pressure exits to the east on Friday as a clipper system
propagates across southern Ontario, bringing snow showers to
southern Wisconsin along its trailing cold front Friday afternoon
through Friday night (20-40% chances/coverage). Meanwhile, decent
agreement in modeling suggests that an atmospheric river setup
will slowly sag southward into the Pacific Northwest, allowing for
low pressure to develop in the vicinity of the Wyoming Rockies by
Saturday. Modeling then becomes less confident on the evolution
of this low as it ejects eastward. Euro and Canadian bring the low
eastward, bringing a wave of snow to southern Wisconsin.
Meanwhile, the GFS has a slower, weaker progression that results
in weak shortwaves and very little precipitation across southern
Wisconsin. Due to this uncertainty, comfortable with the NBM PoPs
for Saturday night at this time (~30% chances). A cold front will
work its way through the region overnight Sunday as well, bringing
lows in the single digits above zero (warmer near Lake Michigan).

Arctic high pressure builds into the region Sunday regardless of
the strength of the precursory system, bringing highs in the teens
and lows in the single digits below zero (wind chills may dip
down into the teens below zero). An atmospheric river is
forecast to pivot back northward into British Columbia Sunday
night into Monday, leading to primary low pressure genesis
regions in Montana and Alberta and therefore a return to low
pressure systems tracking primarily across southern Canada into
the Great Lakes region through midweek. Multiple cold fronts and
associated light snow potential will propagate through southern
Wisconsin Monday through Wednesday, with the most confidence at
this time in widespread light snowfall Monday into Tuesday
(40-60% chances) and continual snow potential through Wednesday
(30-50% chances) as additional systems propagate through.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1015 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Clear skies and
diminishing winds are expected late this evening through
Thursday morning. Northwest winds will become light overnight
and then light and variable for a few hours after sunrise before
turning to southwesterly. Breezy southwest winds are then
expected Thursday evening through into Friday morning. Clouds
will eventually return to southern Wisconsin near the end of the
period. These clouds will be ahead of the next chance for snow
Friday.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 256 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

A cold front continues to progress across Lake Michigan this
afternoon, currently draped across the far southern portions of
the open waters. Expect gusty northwest winds behind this front,
with a few gusts up to gale force possible tonight in far
northern portions of the open waters. These gusts are not
expected to be widespread or consistent. Very cold air combined
with gusty conditions will result in periods of moderate
freezing spray tonight into Thursday morning.

In nearshore regions, a Small Craft Advisory for elevated winds
and waves remains in effect through tonight until 6 AM CST
Thursday.

Winds shift southwesterly again Thursday as high pressure
builds over the Ohio Valley. A weak low pressure system will
move west to east across southern Ontario Thursday night through
Friday, increasing southwesterly winds to gales across the
northern third of the open waters. Elsewhere, expect gusts
around 30 kt. Small Craft Advisories will again be needed during
this time frame. A Gale Warning is in effect from Thursday
night into Friday morning. Moderate freezing spray is expected once
again Thursday night into Friday.

A cold front will drape across the open waters Friday into
Friday night, bringing lighter westerly winds.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...9
     PM Thursday to 9 AM Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 AM
     Thursday.

&&

$$

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