386
FXUS63 KMKX 030649
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1249 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Off & on periods of rain & isolated storms continue into
  Wednesday morning.

- Hit & miss showers linger Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

- Drier and cooler conditions Friday into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1235 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Today through Thursday:

Upper Air / Synopsis:
Double-barreled surface low pressure currently resides to our
west, with the northern centroid near MN and the southern near
KS. The two centroids will merge near the Twin Cities / Duluth
midweek, vertically stacking with a 500 mb low and gradually
occluding. The occluded low then gradually exits east later this
week. Periods of rain with chances for isolated embedded
thunderstorms are expected to continue across the CWA through
Wednesday morning, driven by WAA / the LLJ, the approaching cold
front and low-pressure merger (some QG ascent), then the cold
front itself as it crosses west to east. Some hit/miss showers
may then pass by in the cool sector of the lingering low
pressure Wednesday afternoon into Thursday before the whole
system begins to exit east. The vast majority of the overall
rainfall will occur between now and Wednesday morning, with only
weak showers thereafter. Forecast storm-total accumulations
across the CWA are in the 0.4 to 0.8" range, with the higher
totals further west. Some locally higher totals above 1" remain
a possibility in proximity to any localized convective updrafts
/ thunderstorms. Instability remains too limited for any strong
or severe storms, and flooding concerns remain low given that
the bulk of the large-scale precip will fall in separate rounds.
That said, a few brief locally-heavy downpours will be possible.

Before Dawn This Morning:
The LLJ east of the low will continue to drive strong WAA and
periods of rainfall across southern WI, mainly between Midnight
and 5 AM.

Dawn This Morning through This Afternoon:
Showers / storms originating from the Central Plains will
gradually lift northeast towards the western edge of WI early
this morning, following the effective cold front / baroclinic
zone. After what is shaping up to be a slight lull in the
precipitation for much of southern WI (mainly from roughly 5 AM
to 8 AM), this rain then begins an eastward progression into the
region through the daytime hours. CAMs continue to resolve
MUCAPE in the ballpark of 100-400 joules, which combined with
the QG ascent could be enough to provide a few rumbles of
thunder and/or a localized heavy downpour (given PWAT around
1.6"). Today will be the warmest and windiest day this week,
with highs in the upper 60s and southerly wind gusts of 25-35
mph.

Tonight into Wednesday morning:
The cold front is expected to approach from the west this evening
into tonight, with continued WAA and lingering ~1.6" PWAT ahead of
the front contributing to additional rain showers and possibly a
few rumbles of thunder. The front then crosses eastward through
Wednesday morning, which will provide some forcing for ascent to
continue the rainshowers, but will also advect some less-humid air
into the region (PWAT decreasing below 1") and gradually sweep out
any lingering MUCAPE.

Wednesday afternoon into Thursday:
Predominantly dry weather expected in the wake of the front
Wednesday afternoon, that said there will be plenty of lingering
cloud cover and any secondary frontal-boundaries could yield
some hit/miss showers (10-45% chances). As the occluding low
pressure lingers near northwest WI / Lake Superior Wednesday
night into Thursday, a more prominent secondary cold front could
yield to some cool-sector / wrap-around rain showers (35-50%
chances), though these should be very light if applicable.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1235 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Thursday night through Monday:

Low pressure begins an eastward retreat Thursday, with any
lingering rain chances (20-40%) tapering down Thursday night into
Friday. A northerly breeze on Friday will return temperatures to
seasonal norms (highs around 50, lows in the 30s), where they`ll
hold through Saturday before beginning a slight warming trend
into early next week. Predominantly dry weather is looking
likely on Saturday, but a handful of ensemble members suggest a
possible clipper system Saturday night through Sunday with
chances for rain. Holding precip chances around 20% late this
weekend until models converge on the presence and track of said
system.

Sheppard

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1235 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Periods of rain, low cloud ceilings, and gusty south winds are
expected to continue through the TAF period as a low pressure
system and associated frontal zone approach from the west. A few
rumbles of thunder will be possible as well, though no strong or
severe storms are expected at this time. FL020 winds (south at
45 kt or locally higher) will outpace the surface winds (south
with gusts to 20-25 kt) and lead to some marginal LLWS
early this morning.

Cloud ceilings expected to linger at IFR levels through predawn
this morning, with lower (LIFR) ceilings at times due to rain
humidifying the lower atmosphere. A slight rise to predominantly
Fuel Alt MVFR levels is possible between dawn and dusk today
(though any rain-showers in the vicinity could easily send it
back to IFR). Ceilings then lower to predominantly IFR/LIFR late
tonight as the rain continues.

Using a mix of PROB30, TEMPO, and Prevailing RA in the TAFs to
follow the expected arrival / exit times for each round of
rainfall. TS / CB are not currently a part of the TAF given low
confidence in occurrence / placement of said storms. That said,
trends will be followed, and some TS could be added in future
TAF amendments. No strong or severe storms expected.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1235 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Open Waters / Synopsis:
Low pressure around 29.5 inches over the Upper Mississippi
River Valley will drive gusty south winds across the lake Today
into Wednesday. Winds should approach or exceed gale force over
at least the central third of the lake late this morning through
this afternoon. A Gale Warning is now in effect over this
portion of the waters from 9 AM to 6 PM CST today. Periods of
rain will accompany this low pressure today through midweek. A
few rumbles of thunder will be possible, but severe weather is
not expected at this time.

29.5 inch low pressure will stagnate over northern Wisconsin on
Wednesday, steadily progressing from Lake Superior into Quebec
Wednesday night into Friday morning. Progression of the low will
result in a gradual trend toward westerly and eventually
northerly winds Thursday into Friday. Winds will be breezy
through this time frame, though they are expected to remain below
gale thresholds. Winds will taper by the weekend as 30.2 inch
high pressure builds into the western Great Lakes.

Nearshore Zones:
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through at least
Wednesday afternoon due to gusty southerly winds and high waves.
A few gales will be possible north of North Point Light late
this morning into this afternoon. Additional Advisory level
conditions will be possible at times later this week due to
steady north winds and building waves.

Sheppard

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872...9
     AM Tuesday to 6 PM Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 3 PM
     Wednesday.

&&

$$

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