485
FXUS63 KMKX 090902
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
402 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frosty conditions linger through daybreak this morning.

- Seasonal temps in the 60s today and a bit warmer in the upper
  60s to around 70F and breezy for Friday.

- Light, scattered shower chances (20-50%) return to southern
  WI late tonight into Friday morning and may linger in
  southeast WI through the day Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 358 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Today through Friday night:

High pressure will continue to influence southern WI weather
today. As it shifts eastward across the eastern Great Lake
Region will see light easterly winds this morning veer more
southeast to southerly this afternoon. Low-level WAA will
accompany this pattern shift as an upper-level trough digs
across Alberta and into Ontario today. This along with ample
sunshine will bring slightly warmer day compared to yesterday.
High temps will creep into the mid to upper 60s for inland
locations, while a slight southeasterly component to the winds
may keep lakeshore areas a fews degrees cooler, but still
looking to top off in the low to mid 60s.

The milder trend will continue overnight with lows in the mid
to upper 40s to around 50F as WAA persists ahead of the incoming
upper- level trough. This trough begins to dig down across
Ontario and into the Lake Superior region tonight into Friday
morning. Accompanying the low-level WAA will not only be a
25-35kt LLJ, but also a surface cold front. This weak forcing
along with 00z-06z CAMs pinging PWATs returning to around 1
inch, may be enough to spur a broken line of scattered, light
showers along a prefrontal trough early Friday morning. Overall,
rainfall amounts will remain fairly light (a few hundredths of
an inch to maybe a few tenths) given the weak forcing and this
activity having to battle dry air out ahead of it before the
environment fully saturates. Nevertheless a 20-50% chance will
be possible through daybreak Friday. Then there be a lull in the
shower activity through the morning, but may see some
additional shower development along the cold front for
southeastern WI later in the afternoon and evening, but
confidence remains low as it loses low-level forcing and is a
question of will the environment and moisture recover before the
frontal passage.

The cold front will then push through the area later in the day
by the evening. So temps should be able to warm into the upper
60 and low 70s before the cold front`s arrival. However,
northerly winds, drier airmass and cooler temps will spread in
overnight Friday. Thus looking at a return of cooler temps.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 358 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Saturday through Wednesday:

While the front pushes south of the area by Saturday, the
surface low as well as the upper-level low/trough meanders to
our east over MI through the day. Thus CAA and a return of cover
on the backside of the lingering low will bring slightly cooler
temps for Saturday with highs in the low to mid 60s. Then the
500mb closed low finally shifts southeast of the region Saturday
night, with a ridge axis shifting into the area on Sunday. This
ridge axis is then favored by the cluster analysis to remain
over or just east of the region into the first half of next
week, with 500 mb height anomalies staying well into the
positive range. This should result in temperatures remaining
above normal during this period, though onshore winds at times
will keep more seasonable temperatures near Lake Michigan.
Ensembles generally support this trend as well.

A cold front should work its way east across the region Sunday
night or Monday, which may bring some chances for showers. A
more developed low pressure system moving from the central
Plains into the Upper Midwest may bring a more organized area
of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms by Wednesday, though
details this far out remain uncertain per ensemble trends.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 358 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Some ground fog looks to have developed around JVL this morning
given the light winds and may briefly see lower visibility with
it through daybreak. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
through the period as high pressure gradually slides eastward.
Southerly winds will pick up to around 10kt this afternoon.
Expecting winds to remain breezy tonight as pressure gradient
tightens overnight ahead of an incoming cold front. Along with
high to mid-level cloud cover spreading in overnight into Friday
morning ahead of the frontal passage, there is a low end
potential (<40% chance) for light, scattered showers to work its
way across southern WI through daybreak Friday as well.
Overall, confidence remains low at this time for this shower
activity and will be handled with PROB30 through Friday morning
for now.

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 358 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

High pressure will continue to migrate eastward across the
eastern Great Lakes today. Light and variable easterly winds
over Lake Michigan this morning will gradually turn/veer more
south to southeasterly through the afternoon. Breezy
southwesterly winds are expected tonight as low pressure works
its way down from Ontario and across Lake Superior into Friday.
Strong south-southwesterly winds will persist through the day
Friday with gusts approaching 30 knots over the northern open
waters while up to 25 knots expected across southern WI
nearshores as the low pressure and associated cold front work
its way down Lake Michigan through Friday night. Will then see
north to northeast winds return Saturday through Sunday as the
low pressure moves into southern Michigan. Winds then begin to
veer back to the south for the start of next week with another
low pressure system developing and work its way across Plains
and Upper Midwest.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Frost Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ056-WIZ057 until 9 AM
     Thursday.

LM...None.
&&

$$

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