Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMKX 050350 AAC
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1050 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

.UPDATE...

High pressure will move southeast across the area overnight, then
to the southeast on Wednesday. Some middle level clouds will
continue to move southeast through far western parts of the area
overnight into Wednesday morning. Mostly clear skies are expected
elsewhere overnight into Wednesday morning. May see some fog in
the Wisconsin River Valley toward early Wednesday morning. Cool
lows in the lower to middle 50s are expected overnight.

More scattered to broken diurnal cumulus clouds are expected by
Wednesday afternoon, along with a southeast lake breeze near Lake
Michigan. Highs should reach the middle 70s.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected overnight into Wednesday across the
area. Light and variable winds will continue overnight, then
become west to southwest into Wednesday. A southeast lake breeze
is expected Wednesday afternoon, reaching the terminals near the
lake by middle afternoon.

Some clouds with bases around 7000 feet AGL will move southeast
through the far western parts of the area overnight into Wednesday
morning. Mostly clear skies are expected elsewhere during this
time. More scattered to broken diurnal cumulus clouds should
develop by Wednesday afternoon. Some fog may develop in the
Wisconsin River Valley toward early Wednesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 853 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020)

UPDATE...

High pressure will move southeast across the area tonight, then to
the southeast on Wednesday. Some middle level clouds were trying
to linger in the far west this evening. Some of these clouds may
linger overnight in that area. Mostly clear skies should occur
elsewhere overnight into Wednesday morning. May see some fog in
the Wisconsin River Valley overnight into early Wednesday morning.
Cool lows in the lower to middle 50s are expected tonight.

More scattered to broken diurnal cumulus clouds are expected by
Wednesday afternoon, along with a southeast lake breeze near Lake
Michigan. Highs should reach the middle 70s.

MARINE...

High pressure over southwest Wisconsin will move slowly into east
central Indiana tonight and Wednesday. The high will allow for
north winds over the nearshore and open waters of Lake Michigan
to weaken. The high will shift east of the lake Wednesday night
into Thursday. Light south to southwest winds will develop
Wednesday night into Thursday, becoming southeast in southern
portions of the open waters and the nearshore waters. These winds
will linger into Friday. South to southwest winds should then
increase over the weekend, with warmer and more humid air moving
into the region.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 657 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020)

UPDATE...

High pressure will move southeast across the area tonight, then to
the southeast on Wednesday. Skies should gradually clear into the
evening hours, with mostly clear skies overnight into Wednesday
morning. May see some fog in the Wisconsin River Valley overnight
into early Wednesday morning. Cool lows in the lower to middle 50s
are expected tonight.

More scattered to broken diurnal cumulus clouds are expected by
Wednesday afternoon, along with a southeast lake breeze near Lake
Michigan. Highs should reach the middle 70s.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected tonight into Wednesday across the
area. Winds will become light and variable tonight into early
Wednesday, then west to southwest on Wednesday. A southeast lake
breeze is expected Wednesday afternoon, reaching terminals near
the lake by middle afternoon.

Skies should clear out this evening into Wednesday morning, with
more scattered to broken diurnal cumulus clouds developing by the
afternoon. Some fog may develop in the Wisconsin River Valley
overnight into early Wednesday morning.

BEACHES...

A moderate swim risk will linger into the early evening hours for
Racine and Kenosha County beaches along Lake Michigan. Waves of 2
to 4 feet are expected into early evening, then gradually
subsiding below 2 feet.

A low swim risk is then anticipated for the rest of tonight into
the next few days across all Lake Michigan beaches.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 355 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight through Friday...Forecast confidence high.

The sfc ridge axis that runs from Ontario to IA today will
slowly shift across WI tnt-Wed. Another relatively cool night is
expected with high temps climbing into the middle 70s for Wed.
Sct-bkn cumulus once again for Wed afternoon.

A weakening vorticity maximum within nw flow aloft will then move
across srn WI and nrn IL late Wed nt-Thu. Mid level moisture and
instability may be just enough for brief, isolated showers west of
Madison. Temps will continue to slowly warm from prior days.

The high pressure area previously mentioned will then reside over
the Lower Great Lakes through Fri. Sly winds and warm advection
will increase on Fri with high temps back up to 80 degrees.

LONG TERM...Weekend through Tuesday...Forecast confidence medium.

A sly flow and warm, moist advection will continue into the
weekend with a cold front expected by late Monday. The warm, moist
advection and weak vorticity maximums in the flow will bring
chances for showers and storms during this period. High pressure
may be able to slide just enough south into WI for a dry Tue, but
going with small PoPs at this time.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...VFR conditions expected this afternoon
through Wed. However, sct-bkn040-060 cumulus and stratocumulus
will continue this afternoon and become few-sct cloud cover this
evening. More scattered cumulus development for Wed, but cannot
rule out bkn040-060 at times Wed afternoon.

MARINE...Modest nly winds over the lake will gradually weaken
tnt then back wly for Wed, finally backing to sly for Wed nt into
the weekend. This is in response to a surface ridge of 30.2
inches that extends from Ontario to Iowa that will slowly shift
across the lake late tnt-Wed. The high will then move across the
Lower Great Lakes for Thu-Fri.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Wood
Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Wednesday Night through Tuesday...Gehring


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.