Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 312056
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
356 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

.SHORT TERM...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence
- Medium.

Patchy light rain and drizzle showing signs of diminishing per
latest KMKX/KGRB radars. However wl continue isold mention through
the late aftn with a very small chance for flurries or sprinkles
into the evening as weak upper short wave and lingering weak low
level convergence further weakens across the southern Lake
Michigan area. Seeing some thinning of the stratus across the
lake, and this trend could continue into parts of east central and
southeast WI this evening. However with diminishing low level
winds and moist east to northeast flow, thinking clouds should
return and fill back in overnight. Clouds will likely linger into
Wednesday morning before thinning and possibly breaking up in the
afternoon. However upstream warm air advection ahead of slowly
advancing cold front in the plains will bring increasing mid-high
level clouds back into the area Wednesday night. Wl hold off on
introducing any showers to western CWA Wednesday night as warm air
advection remains mostly to the west, and low level remains
fairly dry.

.LONG TERM...

Thursday through Tuesday...Forecast Confidence: Medium.

There is large scale meridional flow throughout the extended
period, which has come into greater agreement with this model
guidance. Southeasterly surface flow and mostly cloudy skies will
previal Wednesday night through Friday as a sfc trough and cold
front slowly approaches from the Central Plains. Friday night into
Saturday morning there will be a cold frontal passing through the
northern Plains. Dry air and northerly sfc flow on the back side
of the cold front will bring dry and pleasant conditions for
Sunday. Rain chances and more clouds will return Monday as another
shortwave trough and warm, moist advection begin again.


&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Ceilings are rising slightly into
mostly the low MVFR range for the late afternoon most areas.
However weak forcing will continue to generate patchy drizzle and
flurries through late aftn. Moist northeast to east low level
flow should continue to generate low clouds overnight into
Wednesday morning as ceilings may drop back to IFR for a time.

&&

.MARINE...

Gusty north to northeast winds will continue into this
evening and then diminish overnight into Wednesday as high
pressure ridge over the upper Midwest slowly moves towards Lake
Michigan. Wind gusts the rest of the afternoon and evening should
remain around 20 kts or less. Lighter north to northeast winds on
Wednesday will turn to the southeast Wednesday night and Thursday
ahead of a slowly approaching front, which is not expected to
pass across Lake Michigan until Friday evening.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Wednesday Night through Tuesday...Patterson


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