Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 170217
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
917 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

.UPDATE...
(Issued 917 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021)

Forecast remains on track with rain expected mainly to our south.
Looking at the latest guidance and soundings dry air holds on
with a high pressure axis remaining over the area. Fog may build
back in along the lake north of Port Washington into Monday
morning.

RAH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 210 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021)

Tonight and Tomorrow:

A relatively pleasant afternoon is underway today, with a mix of
sun and clouds across the area. Temperatures are generally in
the mid to upper 60s as of 2 PM, with some cooler readings across
the far east behind the lake breeze.

A shortwave moving out of the Central Plains will begin to
interact with a sharpening warm front across Illinois to produce
areas of rain south of the area tonight into tomorrow morning. The
vast majority of the precip should remain south of the area
tomorrow, though a few showers could sneak across the state line
and affect far southern Wisconsin. Temperatures tomorrow will be
tricky, with abundant cloud cover south of I-94 keeping highs in
the upper 60s to around 70. Further north, more sun is expected,
with highs reaching the mid to perhaps even upper 70s.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 210 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021)

Monday Night through Sunday:

The front will start to push north Monday night, continuing
Tuesday. In addition to increasing chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms, low clouds and some patchy fog will be likely as
the warm front advances north on Tuesday. Highs for Tuesday are
currently forecast to reach the mid to upper 60s, but this could
be optimistic depending on exactly how widespread rain and stratus
is. Winds will be breezy from the east to southeast.

Summer will arrive on Wednesday, as winds turn to the south and
southwest and temperatures warm into the upper 70s. There will be
periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms through the day,
likely maximized in the afternoon hours with peak heating. There
won`t be much in the way of surface features (other than maybe a
lake breeze) to focus convection, so much of the activity will
likely be rather random in nature. Deep layer shear will be
sufficient for a few stronger storms during this time, though
lackluster mid level lapse rates will likely limit the severe
potential.

South to southwest flow continues Thursday into the weekend, with
highs Thursday-Saturday currently expected to be a few degrees on
either side of 80. Scattered shower/thunderstorm potential will continue,
though by Friday/Saturday, it`s possible that the upper level
ridge may build just enough to limit convection. By late in the
weekend, guidance is suggestive of a frontal boundary attempting
to impinge on the area from the north, which would likely result
in an uptick in thunderstorm potential heading into next week.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 917 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021)

VFR conditions continue overnight with light east to southeast
winds. Clouds will gradually thicken overnight into Monday as an
area of rain pushes into northern Illinois. The lowest ceilings
are expected south and west of MSN with a slight chance for some
MVFR ceilings to creep into far southwest Wisconsin Monday morning
and across the WI/IL border Monday afternoon and into the
evening. Southeast winds are expected throughout the day Monday
with gusts of 15-20 knots.

RAH

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 917 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021)

A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for areas north of a line from
Port Washington, WI to Whitehall, MI until 10 AM CDT Monday. This
is due to light winds and a warmer air mass over the cooler lake
waters. Fog will likely be a concern across the lake at times
through the coming week as warmer, moist air moves into the area
with a warm front lifting through by mid week. Behind this front
winds will shift to the southwest and bring chances for
thunderstorms each day.

RAH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ669-LMZ868-LMZ870 until 10 AM Monday.

&&

$$

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