Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 281053
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
553 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 330 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020)

Today through Thursday:

Expect another dry day today as we have low pressure moving east
through Canada and weakening high pressure to our south. We will
remain with near zonal flow in the upper levels with a weak LLJ
over the region today in addition to a strengthening upper level
jet over the northeastern Great Lakes and southeastern Canada.
Expect temperatures to reach the upper 40s to low 50s with mostly
clear skies and mostly light westerly winds. Otherwise weak
surface front will push through in the late afternoon turning
winds to the north into Wednesday evening.

Overnight into Thursday winds will be from the north/northeast
with perhaps a bit of surface winds convergence and some low
level frontogenesis. As this will be co-located with some low
level moisture we could see some lake induced clouds preside over
parts of the shoreline, especially the far southeast. This could
bring some showers/drizzle to the shoreline region. The rest of
the region should remain dry. Chances may remain throughout the
day until winds turn to the north by the early evening as any
precip bands would slide back over the lake.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 330 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020)

Thursday night through Tuesday:

Not much expected for weather through Tuesday with the region
likely remaining mostly dry with temperatures in the 40s and 50s
for highs with lows in the mid 20s to low 30s.

Friday looks to be fairly quiet with high pressure overhead with
light and variable winds but as we move into Saturday we will see
a strong low pressure system push west across southern Canada with
pressure gradient in front and behind the associated front(s).
This will make for a very breezy weekend with a strong LLJ
associated with this system that should be expected to mix down
some gusty winds. Saturday will consist of gusty southwest winds
and a warm up with the front likely pulling through late Saturday
night. Winds will then become westerly behind the initial front
Sunday and then will turn to the northwest as another stronger
front pulls through the region making for a very gusty day in
addition to falling temperatures. Into Monday the pressure
gradient may remain fairly strong as a strong high pressure is
expected to develop across the Central Plains and push southeast.
Models do differ on the strength of the high which will affect how
breezy we can get Monday but Monday is generally supposed to be
much less breezy than either Saturday or Sunday.

Into Tuesday and beyond while models start to differentiate
somewhat more we seem likely to remain dry through early next
week as we look to warm up as an upper level ridge moves overhead.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 600 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020)

VFR is expected through most of the TAF period, with clear skies
continuing through the day today. Some LLWS will continue over the
next few hours across parts of the area from the west at 40 kts
around 2 kft. West winds may become gusty for period of time this
morning and into early afternoon, before winds diminish by late
afternoon tomorrow. Higher clouds will push in overnight tonight
with no concerns for CIGS until the morning hours when low CIGS
push west off the Lake and also from the north likely bringing a
period of MVFR to IFR CIGS Thursday morning/afternoon.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 330 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020)

Gales Warning for the north half of the Lake remains in effect
until 15z today with a Small Craft Advisory in effect until 16z
today.

Weakening high pressure remains centered across the Southern and
Central Plains this morning, while low pressure over southern
Manitoba is in the process of merging with an area of low pressure
over the Hudson Bay. West to southwest winds have increased to
around gale force across the north half of the Lake, which will
continue through much of the morning. The Hudson Bay low will
progress east today, with winds gradually diminishing during the
day.

Behind the departing low, high pressure moves in across the Upper
Great Lakes as a low lifts across Tennessee Valley up into the
Mid-Atlantic Thursday through Friday. This weekend a period of
gales continues to look favorable over the open waters as another
low tracks northeast across Ontario and up towards the Hudson
Bay. A trailing cold front will push across Lake Michigan Saturday
night, followed by a stronger cold front on Sunday. Gales are
looking likely for Saturday and Sunday.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565 until
     10 AM Wednesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 11 AM
     Wednesday.

&&

$$

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