Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 242057
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
357 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 357 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022)

Tonight through Wednesday night:

The mid level trough has deepened and quickly moved into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley today. As the mid level low continue to track
northeast into the overnight it will gradually become more cut off
from the flow. The 850 mb warm front and warm air advection
extending ahead of the surface low has begun to nose into western
Wisconsin this afternoon. As the mid level front continues to lift
northward tonight, showers and thunderstorm chances will
increase. The surface warm front is expected to move through
during the late morning to early afternoon hours Wednesday, which
will bring more widespread chances for rain and storms to the
state. The rain and thunderstorm activity will likely continue
throughout the afternoon and into the evening as the low tracks
from the southwest to the northeast across Wisconsin and into
northern Lake Michigan. From here there is a bit of uncertainty as
the mid and upper level lows become cut off and slowly move
eastward across the Ohio River Valley and the surface low
continues its track northeast into the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan.

A cold front is expected to advance across the state Wednesday
evening, as the surface low moves out of the region. As front
moves through, there will be a chance for some stronger storms to
develop. This chance for some stronger storms will be very
conditional. Soundings do show elevated long and skinny CAPE
across much of southern Wisconsin during the evening, but the
amount of CAPE leaves little to be desired. Along the front, there
should be enough lift and moisture to get storms to quickly pop
up, but mid level support will be best to the south of the state
making the concern for any hail low. However, this leaves the
main concerns being winds and a brief tornado. The confidence on
this is low as there are a fair amount of variables working
against this. Such as the sustained onshore flow off the lake
keeping surface conditions more stable and increasing MLCIN.
Nevertheless, the potential for some stronger storms exists. The
other thing worth mentioning is this chance for strong storms will
be small and exist along the cold front, so once the cold front
has moved through the chances for any strong storms will
effectively disappear.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 357 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022)

Thursday through Tuesday:

Rain and a few storms will continue to linger Thursday as the
upper level low slowly moves east across the southern Great Lakes
Region. The main trough is expected to become cut off and slowly
meander across the Ohio River Valley and drier air will try to
work into the Wisconsin which will limit the chance for
precipitation and limit the coverage.

By Friday and Saturday more dry air will move into the state and
the cut off low will continue to gradually move eastward into the
New England states. Conditions are expected to remain dry across
southern Wisconsin, but there could be some lingering cloud cover
across the area into the Weekend.

An upper level ridge will begin to build into the central CONUS
for the weekend. During this time a warm front will move across
the state Saturday. Model guidance has increasingly trended drier
for the passage of this warm front as drier, more stable air
keeps conditions dry. The passage of this warm front will be the
catalyst for much warmer and more humid conditions to move into
the state starting in earnest Sunday. From here, the upper level
pattern will becoming increasingly amplified with a ridge over
the central CONUS and a trough over the western CONUS. This will
cause a baroclinic zone to develop to the west of the state and
slowly advance eastward. We will have to keep an eye on this as
the baroclinic zone could bring chances for showers and storms to
the state. So when it comes to the extended, the big question is
will we have enough lift for storms to develop and given the
uncertainty with the placement of the baroclinic zone, kept the
average of model guidance.


Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 357 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022)

VFR conditions will persist through this evening and into the
early overnight hours. As a low pressure system advances from the
Central Plains, rain showers and a few storms will move northeast
into Wisconsin. Lower MVFR to IFR ceilings and some lower
visibilites with any moderate to heavy rain is expected Wednesday.
Rainfall will become scattered at times during the day Wednesday
with the best times for rain being with the passage of a warm
front in the early afternoon and a cold front in the evening.
Breezy easterly winds will persist through the overnight hours and
into day Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon winds will gradually
become more southerly. Behind the cold front, winds will shift to
northwesterly.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 357 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022)

The easterly winds across the lake will be increasing this
afternoon and evening, as the pressure gradient across the Great
Lakes Region tightens. Winds out over the open waters will
approach 30 knots tonight through Wednesday. With increasing
easterly winds and building waves, a Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for this evening into Wednesday night. A low pressure
system has developed across the Central Plains today and will move
northeast into the Mid- Mississippi Valley before eventually
crossing Wisconsin and the northern half of the Lake tomorrow.
Rain and a few rumbles of thunder will be possible Wednesday as
the low pressure system moves across the lake. As the low lifts
further northeast, a cold front will move across the lake Thursday
afternoon and shift winds to northerly. The north winds are
expected to persist across the lake through Friday.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...9 PM Tuesday to 9 PM
     Wednesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...4 AM Wednesday to 1 AM
     Thursday.

&&

$$

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