005
FXUS63 KMKX 131900
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
100 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures remaining 5 to 15 or more degrees above normal
  through the middle of next week.

- Patchy fog may occur later tonight into early Saturday
  morning north of Madison and Milwaukee. A few slick spots are
  possible in this area.

- Increasing rain chances (30 to 70 percent chances) arrive late
  Tuesday through Wednesday. Some thunder is possible.

- Chances (around 30 percent) for more mixed precipitation
  Thursday into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 100 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Tonight through Saturday night:

There may be patchy fog that develops later tonight into early
Saturday morning north of Madison and Milwaukee, with calm
winds helping set up an inversion just above the surface. There
is uncertainty with how much fog will occur, as forecast
soundings are showing very dry air just above the inversion.
Also, not expecting higher dew points to push into the area
during this period. Lows will drop into the middle to upper 20s
for most of the area later tonight.

So, left patchy fog mention to areas north of Madison and
Milwaukee for now. A few slick spots are possible, if fog does
develop in low lying areas where temperatures drop the most.
Think this risk will be too limited to warrant additional
messaging at this time.

Some middle to high clouds will push across the area Saturday
into early Saturday evening, as the low well to the south moves
east. TThereis a surface trough that approaches the area later
Saturday night, though it looks to remain dry.

Temperatures will remain quite mild during this period, with
highs Saturday in the lower to middle 50s in southwest parts of
the area, and 40s elsewhere, coolest along the lake with onshore
winds. Lows Saturday night should remain in the upper 20s to
lower 30s.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 100 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Sunday through Friday:

The surface trough should move east across the area Sunday, with
the dry air limiting any precipitation. Another mild day is
expected with highs into the middle 50s for most of the
southwest half of the forecast area. 40s to around 50 are
expected to the north and east.

The warmest day should be Monday, as warm air advection develops
Sunday night into Monday and brings increasing southwest winds
to the area. This should result in highs well into the 50s and
perhaps touching 60 degrees in southern and western parts of the
area. There is above average confidence in these warm
temperatures Sunday into Monday, as temperature spreads on the
NBM are very small.

Record highs may be approached at Madison (56 degrees F) and
perhaps Milwaukee (57 degrees F). Any snow pack that may be left
should be melted by later on Monday.

A more active weather period then may occur for the rest of next
week. One low pressure system may push east through the region
Tuesday into Wednesday, with a swath of rain moving through
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. There may be some thunder
that occurs during this time, with forecast soundings bringing
weak elevated CAPE. Kept 30 to 70 percent chances for
precipitation going for this period, with ensembles showing most
members with some measurable precipitation during this time.

Another low may move through the region later in the week, in
the Thursday to Friday period. This low may have a more
southerly track than the first one, and may keep the area on the
cold side of this system. Thus, mixed precipitation with rain
and wet snow may occur. Ensembles are more robust with member
QPF during this period than the earlier week low. This system
may have potential impacts if this scenario plays out, so will
keep an eye on how this system evolves over the coming days.

Ensembles suggest mild temperatures may linger into Wednesday,
before trending more toward seasonal normals later in the week.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 100 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Southwest winds may be gusty at times for terminals near Lake
Michigan this afternoon. Otherwise, light southwest winds are
expected. These winds will become calm tonight into early
Saturday morning, before becoming south later on Saturday.
Southeast winds are expected Saturday afternoon for terminals
near Lake Michigan.

There may be patchy fog that develops later tonight into early
Saturday morning north of Madison and Milwaukee. There is
uncertainty with how much fog will occur. For now, kept fog
mention with around 4 mile visibility at Sheboygan during this
time.

A few high clouds may move through into early evening. Mostly
clear skies are expected tonight into early Saturday. Any low
clouds should remain well north of the area. Some middle to
high clouds will push across the area Saturday into early
Saturday evening.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 100 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Southwest winds should linger into early evening, as low
pressure around 29.7 inches moves east across central Quebec.
Winds will weaken and become light and variable by later tonight
into Saturday, as high pressure around 30.2 inches moves
through the region. Winds will become south to southeast
Saturday, then southwest Saturday night ahead of a weak cold
front. The front will move across the open waters Sunday
morning, bringing a brief west to northwest wind shift Sunday
afternoon. Winds will shift back to the south southwest Sunday
night into Monday.

Strong low pressure around 29.3 inches will develop over the
north central Great Plains Tuesday, resulting in increasing
easterly winds. Winds will increase and become gusty Tuesday
night into Wednesday, as the low approaches and eventually moves
across Lake Michigan. The low will weaken east of the lake
Wednesday afternoon and night, with gusty east to northeast
winds lingering. A few gale force gusts are possible Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning.

Another low around 29.6 inches moving northeast through the
Great Lakes region later next week may bring another round of
gusty winds to Lake Michigan.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee