Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 150440
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1140 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.UPDATE...Temperatures have tumbled into the low to mid 30s over
most of the northern and eastern areas, likely resulting in at
least patchy frost. Clouds are thickening upstream along with
increasing low level moisture. Temps may fall a couple more
degrees, but then should level off and begin to rise late tonight.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...VFR conditions will continue into Tuesday
morning. A few showers may accompany a frontal boundary as it
slips through during the morning and early afternoon. An isolated
t-storm can not be ruled out as well. Have delayed the MVFR cold
air stratocumulus until later in the afternoon or early evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 918 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019)

UPDATE...As expected, temperatures have tumbled quickly this
evening and have fallen into the middle 30s to lower 40s most
areas. With light winds, expect areas of frost will be forming in
the next hour or so. However the surface ridge continues to move
off to the east as pressure gradient begins to tighten as low
pressure moves into the upper midwest. Mid-high clouds are
increasing across northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and expect
this trend to continue as warm air and moisture increases across
the region. Temperatures will likely fall a few more degrees in
the next several hours before leveling off and rising slightly
after midnight. Will continue a chance of showers and isold
thunder between 12Z and 18Z Tuesday as column precipitable water
rapidly increases due to increasing low level jet.

MARINE...South to southeast winds will increase late tonight and
Tuesday morning and remain gusty most of the day. A few gusts will
approach Gale force, especially across the central and southern
open waters. No change to ongoing headlines.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 614 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019)

UPDATE...Expect temperatures to fall rapidly this evening into
the mid to upper 30s, eventually falling into the low to mid 30s
in some areas. May need to lower temps in a few eastern areas.
With surface ridge moving off to the east later this evening and
overnight, and boundary layer mixing gradually increasing, temps
will start to level off. In addition, expect mid-high level clouds
to increase ahead of warm air and moisture advection. Never the
less, expect patchy to areas of frost to develop away from Lake
Michigan later this evening until later tonight as the clouds and
winds increase. Reluctant to post Frost Advisory due to
uncertainty and warming later tonight. In addition, many areas
most likely received frost this morning.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...VFR conditions expected into Tuesday morning
as showers and possibly a few t-storms move through the area ahead
of a cold front. Rapidly increasing moisture and deepening low
pressure is expected to bring a period of MVFR ceilings to the
area in the cold air advection behind the passing front later on
Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 344 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Tuesday...Forecast confidence is high.

A sfc ridge will shift newd across srn WI this evening. Areas of
frost should develop by late evening into the overnight, but
temps will then begin to warm via sly winds and warm advection. A
Frost Advisory is not expected. Low pressure will track from the
nrn high plains to near MSP by 12Z Tue in response to a strong
upstream shortwave trough. The shortwave trough will initiate
cyclogenesis from MSP to Lake Huron for Tue-Tue nt. Low to mid
level warm, moist advection late tnt and Tue AM will bring sct
showers and isold tstorms to srn WI with an advancing dry slot for
the afternoon. Sly winds Tue AM will gradually shift wly with the
cold frontal passage in the afternoon. Temps will warm into the
middle 50s to lower 60s before fropa on Tue.

LONG TERM...

Tuesday Night through Friday...Forecast confidence is high.

The departing low will have some wrap around low level moisture
and bring the chance for drizzle across the area Tuesday night.
Dry conditions look to return around dawn Wednesday. As the low
shifts northeast into eastern Ontario, gusty northwest winds will
move in behind it with gusts up to 35 mph. The strongest winds
will be during Wednesday morning. Winds will decrease through the
rest of the day Wednesday as upper level ridging builds in
bringing pleasant conditions for Thursday and Friday. Temperatures
will gradually rise through the week, but there could be some
frost Thursday morning as temperatures will be in the low to mid
30s.

Friday Night through Monday...Forecast confidence is medium.

An advancing upper level trough and 850mb warm air advection will
bring rain chances back to the area late Friday night into
Saturday morning. We will be on the backside of the 500mb
vorticity wave and the 850mb front by Saturday evening. The rest
of the night into Sunday morning looks to remain dry, but we`ll
have to watch some slight chances for showers. A deepening upper
level low will move into the area Sunday evening. Areas of
positive vorticity advection will rotate around the low and bring
periods of rain Sunday evening through Monday. This will be the
best chance for rain this week.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...VFR conditions this afternoon and tnt. LLWS
will be possible for early Wed AM over south central WI via a
swly 35-40 kt LLJ. Stratus of 1-3 kft will then overspread srn WI
from west to east during the daylight morning hours and last much
of the day. Sct showers and isold tstorms are forecast.

MARINE...A ridge of high pressure of 30.0 inches from se MN to
IL will move across Lake MI late this afternoon and evening.
Modest westerly winds will shift southerly for late tonight.
Developing low pressure around 29.7 inches will then move from
MN to nrn Lake MI on Tuesday and continue to deepen to 29.4
inches as it moves to Lake Huron Tuesday night. The passage of the
deepening low and cold front will shift the winds to westerly,
then northwesterly for Tuesday night and Wednesday with gales
possible. A Gale Watch is in effect for all of Lake MI from 09Z
Wed until 00Z Thu. A Small Craft Advisory will precede the Gale
Watch from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor for 12Z Tue to 09Z Wed.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for
     LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-643>646-669-671-673-675-
     777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 4 AM CDT Wednesday for
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...MBK
Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Tuesday Night through Monday...Gehring


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