Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 161136 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
536 AM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

.UPDATE...

Fog continues in eastern portions of the forecast area this
morning. Visibilites will go down to 1/4 mile or less at times
for these locations. Now that high clouds are moving in, will keep
an eye on webcams and observations to see if these clouds help to
improve visibilities. Either way, fog should be gone by mid-
morning due to daytime mixing.

&&

.AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

Fog across eastern portions of southern Wisconsin will likely
continue through the early morning hours. High clouds moving into
the area may improve conditions over the next couple hours.

A quiet day is then expected today, with only passing high clouds
at times. Northwest winds will pick up tonight behind a cold
front, putting an end to the threat for more overnight fog.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 310 AM CST Sun Dec 16 2018)

SHORT TERM...
Today through Monday...Forecast confidence is high:

Fog continues to expand early this morning. May need to expand the
Dense Fog Advisory northward and a little westward if this trend
continues. High clouds have reached the Madison area and will
continue to slowly head eastward. These clouds should help to
improve visibilities in the east when they arrive, but they`re
taking a while getting there.

After fog dissipates this morning, pleasant weather is expected
for the remainder of the day. There should be a fair amount of
sunshine despite a couple rounds of high clouds. Given how mild it
got yesterday, trended highs for today toward MOS values.

A cold front will move through later today, bringing breezy
northwest winds overnight into Monday morning. Temps Monday will
be colder behind the front, though still a couple/few degrees
above normal for mid-December. Should be plenty of sunshine
Monday.

LONG TERM...
Monday night through Tuesday...Forecast confidence is high.

Surface high pressure will be overhead Monday night and with
clear skies it will be a tad cooler. A mid level ridge pushes into
the region for Tuesday with a feed of milder temperatures for
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday and Thursday...Forecast confidence medium.

A shortwave approaches on Wednesday bringing a chance for
precipitation. Precipitation will likely be rain if it holds off
until during the day Wednesday. There are better chances for precip
later Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front moves through. Some
light snow is possible Wednesday night and Thursday night and
mainly rain during the day Thursday. Northwest winds will be breezy
behind this front later Thursday and Friday. An upper trough pushes
through the region Thursday before merging with a closed low over
the northeast later in the week. This brings cooler temperatures for
later in the week, mainly after the precip ends.

Friday through Sunday...Forecast confidence high.

Precip chances linger into early Friday as waves of vorticity
move through in the cyclonic flow. The upper trough lifts
northward on Saturday and brief riding bring quiet weather.
Northwest flow dominates and another weak system may swing through
early the following week.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...
Fog continues along and east of a line from Waukesha to
Burlington and is also now expanding northward in the West Bend
and Sheboygan areas. Visibilites could go down to 1/4 mile or less
at times for these locations. Still thinking that high clouds to
the west should improve visibilities somewhat when they arrive
later during the early morning hours.

A quiet day is then expected today, with only passing high clouds
at times. Northwest winds will pick up tonight behind a cold
front, putting an end to the threat for more overnight fog.

MARINE...
West to northwest winds will pick up this evening and overnight
behind a cold front. Gusts to 30 knots are possible over the open
waters. Wind gusts could reach Small Craft Advisory levels over
the nearshore waters. Given the offshore wind direction and
borderline gusts in the forecast, will hold off on an advisory for
now.

Southerly winds later Tuesday into Tuesday night may approach
Small Craft Advisory levels again, with gusts to 30 knots possible
over the open waters, especially in northern portions of the lake.

Gale force winds will be possible over the open waters Thursday
night into Friday, with the best chance across the southern half
of the lake. There will also be a decent chance for advisory
conditions once again over the nearshore waters.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for WIZ052-059-
     060-065-066-070>072.

LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...DDV
Today through Monday and Aviation/Marine...DDV
Monday Night through Saturday...Marquardt


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