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000
FXUS63 KMKX 070808
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
308 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 308 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023)

Today through Thursday:

A slightly cooler and much drier airmass is building into the area
this morning, in the wake of the frontal boundary that moved
through yesterday. Northeast winds will be breezy at times today,
with highs in the mid to upper 70s, cooler near Lake Michigan.
Little in the way of actual cloud cover is expected today, but
another area of elevated wildfire smoke from the fires in Quebec
is expected to rotate into the region later this morning, likely
filtering a bit of the sunshine.

The combination of low humidity this afternoon, the breezy
northeast winds, and dry fuels will result in elevated fire
weather conditions over portions of the area this afternoon,
especially west of I-90. See the Fire Weather section below for
addition detail.

In addition, onshore flow will result in elevated waves along the
Lake Michigan shoreline today, especially later this afternoon.
This will result in a moderate swim risk at most Lake Michigan
beaches, with a risk for dangerous currents, especially on the
north side of piers and breakwalls. Waves will be highest from
Milwaukee southward.

High pressure builds southward tonight, with lows expected to fall
into the mid 40s in many locations. Temperatures on Thursday will
likely be quite similar to today, with mid to upper 70s.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 308 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023)

Thursday night through Tuesday:

Quiet weather continues into Friday, as high pressure pushes
southeast of the region. Highs Friday will be a touch warmer, with
readings around 80.

A cold front is still expected to pass through the region early
in the weekend, with the best rain chances we`ve had in some time
on track for Saturday. Could see showers and a few thunderstorms
as early as late Friday night, and activity could linger into
Sunday morning.

This front is associated with a stout upper level wave which will
dig southward and then close off across the western Great Lakes
this weekend. There is quite a bit of uncertainty with what this
low does early next week, with some guidance pushing it well east
of the area, while others keep it overhead. If the low remains
overhead, cool, showery, and breezy weather is favored for early
next week, with the potential for warmer and drier weather
increasing the further east the low progresses. The current
temperature and precipitation forecast takes a middle ground, but
the wide range of potential outcomes should be noted.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 308 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023)

VFR is expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will be from the
east and northeast today around 10 knots, with a few gusts into
the 15 knot range.

Boxell

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 308 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023)

Breezy northerly winds will continue today and tomorrow, with
high pressure centered just to the northwest of Lake Michigan.
Waves may briefly approach Small Craft levels tonight south of
Racine, but for now the risk appears too marginal to warrant an
Advisory.

Winds will then become lighter on Friday as the high weakens and
heads southward ahead of an approaching low. Breezy northerly
winds will develop again by the end of the weekend behind another
cold front.

Boxell

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
(Issued 308 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023)

A very dry airmass is building into the region from the northeast
this morning. As mixing increases during the day, look for
dewpoints to drop into the 30s, with RH between 20 and 25 percent.
There is a 10-20 percent chance that a few locations could see RH
fall under 20 percent for a few hours this afternoon.

While some locations saw a quarter to half inch of rain on
Tuesday, most did not. Have highlighted elevated fire weather
conditions for the western half of the area, where fuels are
driest. Winds will not be terribly impressive, but even 10-15 MPH
winds will be enough to cause some issues given the low humidity
values and dry fine fuels.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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