Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 060936
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
336 AM CST Sat Mar 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 336 AM CST Sat Mar 6 2021)

Today and Tonight:

High pressure will sit over WI today and shift over lower MI on
Sunday. There is an area of mid level clouds over far southwest WI
that is associated with a weak upper level shortwave trough and
coincident with an upper jet max. These will shift southeast today
and southern WI should remain clear. The only uncertainty is near
the lake where cold advection could allow for some lake clouds to
develop and reach shoreline areas this afternoon. Temperatures
today will be just a bit cooler than yesterday, although still
above climatological normal due to this dry air mass.

Tonight will be chilly once again in the upper teens and lower
twenties as the upper low departs. There is a chance for a few
clouds near the lakeshore, but confidence is low.

Warm air advection will kick in on Sunday with return flow
around the high and gusty southerly winds. We should see some mid
level clouds stream across the state midday in response to
vorticity advection. Went with the 75th percentile of the NBM for
high temps after coordinating with neighbors.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 336 AM CST Sat Mar 6 2021)

Sunday through Friday:

Warm air advection will kick in on Sunday with return flow
around the high and gusty southerly winds. We should see some mid
level clouds stream across the state midday in response to
vorticity advection. That upper trough and associated weak surface
trough will slide through Sunday night and winds will be lighter
out of the west-southwest on Monday with surface ridging. Surface
low pressure will approach from the northern Plains on Tuesday and
the southerly winds and warm air advection will help to reinforce
the mild temperatures in place over southern WI.

Went with the 75th percentile of the NBM for high temps Sunday
through Tuesday after coordinating with neighbors. This seems like
a reasonable first guess since MOS and raw models are just too
cold. Many other bias-corrected models are too cold since we are
in this transition period between winter and spring.

Wednesday into Wednesday night looks like our best chance for
showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder as another low
pressure area approaches from the central Plains. Low level lapse
rates are not impressive, but mid level lapse rates are fairly
steep, allowing for the potential for elevated convection as the
mid-level wave pushes through, especially Wed evening.

Timing of the front through southern WI is still uncertain, but
it looks like Thursday, or at least Thursday afternoon, should be
quiet. One more upper trough will swing through Thursday night
into Friday and this one will have a chill to it.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 336 AM CST Sat Mar 6 2021)

There is some patchy, shallow fog in low lying areas early this
morning and is currently impacting JVL. This appears to be very
localized. There is a chance for MVFR clouds to develop over Lake
Michigan today and brush the shoreline areas. Otherwise, expect
VFR through Saturday night.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 336 AM CST Sat Mar 6 2021)

High pressure over the region will depart on Sunday. Gusty
southerly winds are expected Sunday and again Wednesday as low
pressure approaches from the Plains. Gusts may reach Small Craft
Advisory criteria at times.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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