Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 211734 AAB
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1134 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

.UPDATE...

Forecast remains on track for today with seasonably chilly
temperatures and mainly clear skies expected. With west winds and
clear skies, may be some variability in temps this afternoon where
local pockets of relatively warmer readings appear.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 or so hours. High
pressure moving over the region will result in a decrease in
westerly winds this afternoon, with light and variable winds
expected tonight through much of Friday. Mainly clear skies are
expected today and this evening, with the occasional patch of
cirrus here and there. Mid and high level moisture begins to
increase overnight tonight and especially Friday. Looking beyond
the TAF cycle, the weekend weather conditions look active as a
strong storm system moves overhead.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 1049 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019)

UPDATE...

Forecast remains on track for today with seasonably chilly
temperatures and mainly clear skies expected. With west winds and
clear skies, may be some variability in temps this afternoon where
local pockets of relatively warmer readings appear.

MARINE...

Nearshore...
Winds will continue to decrease today as high pressure builds into
the region. Winds will stay light tonight into Friday. An
approaching strong storm system will bring an increase in
southeasterly winds Friday night. Gales are expected Saturday
night and Sunday.

Open waters..
High pressure will build into the region today and tonight. This
will gradually relax westerly winds today, with light winds
expected tonight and Friday. Southeast winds will gradually
increase Friday night due to an approaching strong storm system.

This strong low pressure will move over the region this weekend.
Easterly winds will steadily ramp up, with increasing confidence
in gale force gusts. Current indications are for a potential higher
end gale event (gusts to 45 knots) with the potential for storm
force conditions.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 545 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019)

UPDATE...

The forecast is on track for the upcoming day.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

High pressure will bring decreasing winds today into Friday along
with mainly VFR conditions. May see MVFR ceilings for a time in
the north today...mainly early this morning. Mid/high level clouds
are expected tonight into Friday.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 437 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019)

SHORT TERM...

Today through Friday...Forecast Confidence is high:

High pressure will build into the area today, strengthening on
Friday. This will bring dry weather to southern Wisconsin to wrap
up the work week. Should be a good amount of sunshine today,
though a couple models are suggesting some of the clouds to the
north could sneak into the area. Mid/high level clouds will be
likely tonight into Friday.

Temperatures today will be a few degrees below normal, with highs
returning to average values Friday.

Friday night through Sunday night...Forecast confidence medium.

Cyclogenesis will ensue over the TX/OK panhandles Fri nt as a
strong shortwave trough approaches from the Desert SW. The
deepening low will track to nrn MO by 00Z Sun. A large area of
850-700 mb warm advection will develop ahead of the low. Fcst
soundings do not suggest saturation until after 3 AM over far
southern and southwest WI. A strong warm layer aloft of 2-6C will
move nwd into srn WI by late Sat AM. Initial pcpn chances will be
mixed, but transitioning to freezing rain as the column becomes
saturated and relatively warm. Thus, light freezing rain with
light ice accums are expected Sat AM. Sfc temps will warm above
freezing over all of S WI by noon with areas of light rain
expected the remainder of the day.

The 992 mb low over nrn MO at 00Z Sun will then track to the nrn
end of Lake MI by 12Z Sun and deepen to 978 mb. Widespread
moderate rainfall will arrive Sat eve on the nose of a strong LLJ,
and strong upper level divergence via PVA and warm advection at
the jet level. Strong cold advection will then ensue from west to
east after midnight. Much of the pcpn will move out before
changing to snow so only 1-3 inches of snow is forecast well
north and west of Madison. The occluded low will continue to
deepen as it moves into Ontario on Sun. A strong pressure gradient
and well mixed atmosphere should be a slam dunk for a Wind
Advisory with wly wind gusts of 45-55 mph. Higher wind gusts
cannot be ruled out and will depend on the details of the
cyclogenesis and pressure gradient. A High Wind Watch may
eventually be needed for Sunday into Sunday evening.

In addition to the winter weather and high winds, minor river
flooding and lowland flooding will be possible due 0.5-1.0 inches
of rain along with several inches of snow melt.

LONG TERM...

Monday through Wednesday...Forecast confidence is low.

The ECMWF drops another reinforcing upper trough and cold temps
into the Great Lakes on Mon while the GFS lacks this feature and
has rising 500 mb heights instead. The two models remain diverged
until later in the week. Overall, below normal temps are expected
with chances of light snow Mon nt-Tue nt.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

High pressure will bring decreasing winds today into Friday along
with mainly VFR conditions. May see MVFR ceilings for a time in
the north today...mainly early this morning. Mid/high level clouds
are expected tonight into Friday.

MARINE...

Decreasing winds are expected today into Friday as high pressure
moves into the area. Will keep the Small Craft Advisory going to
mid-morning for lingering higher wind gusts.

Strong low pressure will move through the area over the weekend.
Winds will pick up Saturday night into Sunday, with increasing
confidence in gale force gusts. Could be a higher end gale
event...with gusts to 45 knots possible. Not out of the question
that gusts could approach storm force over the open waters given
current forecast models.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Gagan
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Gagan
Friday THROUGH Wednesday...99


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