Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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688
FXUS63 KMKX 300808
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
308 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and dry pattern continue today through the start of
  Friday.

- Next chance (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms return
  later Friday into Saturday. Periodic shower and thunderstorm
  chances continue for the end of the weekend through early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 305 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Today through Friday:

Influence from the surface high and upper-level ridge will
continue today through Friday morning. Expect another day with
light winds as the high works it way overhead. May see temps a
degree or a few warmer than yesterday given the ample sunshine.
Given the light flow and strong thermal gradient between the
warm temps inland and cooler lake water temps, expect another
lake breeze to develop and push inland through the afternoon.
This will also once again keep temps cooler by the lake
limiting highs to the mid to upper 60s rather than the lower 70s
inland.

While the surface and upper-level ridge axis gradually shifts
east tonight, will see another cool night given the weaker flow
and ample radiational cooler under clear skies. Looking at
overnight lows in the 40s again. With the surface high progged
to be over the eastern Great Lakes by Friday morning, expect
more southerly flow and WAA to push into southern WI. This will
not only bring warmer temps in the mid to upper 70s, but will
also begin to advect higher dewpoints (>50F) into the area.
While expecting Friday during the day to remain mostly dry,
there are a few model solutions such as the 00z HRRR along with
the RAP that true to bring the upstream shower into our western
CWA in the afternoon. However, the better upper-level forcing
will remain upstream closer to the mid-level trough and will
have to compete with a stout dry layer between 700-850mb as
well as near the surface.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 305 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Friday night through Wednesday:

Friday night into Saturday morning will bring our next chance
for showers and thunderstorms to southern WI. However, chances
remain around 50% or less at this time given the uncertainty on
how the different model solutions handle the phasing of the main
upper-level trough across the northern Plains and a shortwave
trough lifting up from the south-central Plains. Most solutions
place southern WI in between the two upper-level features where
showers and storms are either triggered by the diffuse cold
frontal boundary extending down from the surface low over the
Hudson Bay region or another weak (around 1010mb) surface low
lifting across MO/southern IL/IN. Thus depending on your
location will dictate what may drive you shower/storm chances as
well as amounts. The cold frontal driven activity may not bring
as much in the way of totals and mainly affect the northwestern
half of the CWA. While higher rainfall amounts may be more
associated with the surface low lifting across IL/IN where the
better moisture looks to reside and affect southeastern WI.
However, areas that see this activity will be dependent on
where exactly the low track and a further south track may
ultimately keep most of the rain south of the WI/IL border as
some solutions suggest. While uncertainty on the late Friday and
Saturday activity remain, there is still a potential to see
rainfall across portions of southern WI.

Things look to dry out briefly for Sunday as the upper-level
trough lifts northeast out of the area. Then the pattern looks
more active with periodic shower and storm chances early next
week with a series of mid-level disturbances traversing across
the region. Main windows for addition shower and storm chances
will be Monday and again Wednesday, but there continues to be
run-to-run model differences and will need to monitor the
forecast for updates on shower and storm potential.

Otherwise, continue to see a trend for warmer temps for the
start meteorological summer with daily highs looking to top off
in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 305 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across southern WI as high pressure
meanders over the region today before sliding east Friday.
Expect to see light and variable winds through the morning. Will
likely to see another lake breeze develop this afternoon where
winds would briefly pick up winds along it as it pushes inland
and mainly affect the terminals closer to Lake Michigan through
the afternoon. The lake breeze should weaken by time it reaches
MSN and JVL and mainly just be wind shift. Otherwise, light and
variable winds return overnight under mostly clear skies. High
clouds then begin to increase and more southerly winds will pick
up heading into Friday.

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 305 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Light and variable winds are expected today as high pressure
meanders over Lake Michigan. Then the high pressure will
gradually slide east Friday and winds begin to pick up and turn
more southerly through the day. For southern half of the Lake,
winds briefly shift to the east Saturday as a weak low pressure
tracks south of Lake Michigan. However, southerly winds will
return and persist through the remainder of the weekend.
Otherwise, there will be periods of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday and then Monday through Wednesday.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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