042
FXUS63 KMKX 281902
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
202 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect for a high swim risk at
  the Lake MI beaches this afternoon into Friday morning.

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters
  for high waves this afternoon into Friday morning.

- Only slight chances for showers Friday afternoon and night
  over south central WI.

- A period of dry and fair weather is forecast for Saturday into
  early next week. Temperatures will be several degrees below
  normal during this time.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 201 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Tonight through Friday night:

A clearing trend will continue into the early evening while high
pressure will build south from Ontario late tnt and Friday into
ern WI and Lake MI. Areas of fog, possibly dense in the WI
River Valley, is forecast west of Madison for early Fri AM. The
low level moisture will be greatest over this area with drier
air to the east. Lake effect clouds will affect the lake
counties for Fri AM via nely 1000-850 mb flow and unstable lake
conditions, but the wind flow will weaken in the afternoon with
decreasing clouds expected. Farther to the west 20 percent
chances for showers are forecast in the afternoon and night via
a weak warm, moist advection pattern at 850-700 mb. The passage
of a weak shortwave trough may aid a bit in the overall lift.
Temps will remain a bit on the cool side.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 201 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Saturday through Thursday:

High pressure will be centered over MI on Sat, but stratocumulus
clouds could linger or redevelop with the passage of a weak
vorticity maximum, especially over south central WI. The sfc
high pressure will then reorient from west to east across the
Great Lakes including WI for Sun-Mon in response to an upper
ridge over south central Canada rolling over into srn Ontario
and srn Quebec. Thus pleasant weather will continue with high
temps warming into the upper 70s.

For the middle of the week a fairly significant upper trough may
dig into the Great Lakes from Canada. This would bring chances
for showers and storms, but also significant cooling. The NBM
temps are currently forecasting highs in the lower 60s for Thu.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 201 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Fair weather cumulus will continue to become scattered this
afternoon. Areas of fog is then expected to form west of
Madison especially in the WI River Valley and other low lying
area for early Fri AM. Farther to the east, the lake counties
may experience areas of MVFR Cigs Fri AM via lake effect clouds.
Sct-bkn035-040 cumulus then expected for the afternoon.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 201 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Breezy northerly winds and building waves are expected across the
entire lake through the evening in the wake of a cold front, then
weakening and shifting northeast. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor until 12Z Fri.

High pressure around 30.2 inches will then prevail over the Great
Lakes for Friday and the Labor Day weekend. This will bring an
extended period of light and variable winds and quiet weather.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
     until 7 AM Friday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM
     Friday.

&&

$$

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