428
FXUS63 KMKX 211623
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1023 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures several degrees above normal this weekend into
  early next week.

- 70-85 percent chance of rain Monday night/Tuesday as multiple
  systems progress eastward though southern Wisconsin.

- Below normal temperatures move in Thanksgiving Day onward as
  polar air arrives from Canada.



&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1023 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Mostly cloudy skies via high clouds will develop through the
afternoon from WI Dells to Watertown to MKE as a wave train of
vorticity maximums track west to east from the central Great
Plains to the Ohio Valley. These high clouds will decrease early
in the evening. High temps mainly in the middle 40s is forecast.
Surface ridging will remain over srn WI through 15Z Sat with
good radiational cooling conditions leading to low temps in the
20s for tnt.

For Saturday afternoon and Sunday a Canadian shortwave trough in
nwly flow aloft will track from the nrn Great Lakes to the Mid
Atlantic States. At the surface, a trough/cold front will
approach Sat afternoon with swly winds and warm advection
ensuing. A band of cloud cover will occur with the QG lift but
no precipitation is expected at this time. The weak cold front
will then pass Sat nt. High pressure will then follow for Sun
afternoon and night. Relatively mild temps will continue for the
weekend.

Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 242 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Today through Saturday:

Cloud cover and remaining fog has begun to exit the region, with
expectations for only scattered cloud cover going into the late
morning/afternoon hours. Temperatures will rise into the upper
40s early this afternoon, with steady northwesterly winds
ushering in colder temperatures through the afternoon and
evening hours. Expect lows in the low 20s in most regions, and
in the upper 20s to near freezing near Lake Michigan. High
pressure moves in Saturday, with partly cloudy skies and a
return to southwesterly winds from low pressure to the north.
Expect highs in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 242 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Saturday night through Thursday:

The weather will remain quiet with mostly clear skies and light
winds Saturday night through Sunday night as high pressure drifts
across the Midwest and Great Lakes. Expect a gradual warming
trend, with highs rising into the mid 50s Sun-Tue which is around
8 degrees above normal for this time of year.

A closed upper low over the Four Corners region Sunday evening is
expected to weaken as it reaches the Midwest Monday afternoon.
Meanwhile, an upper trough originating from the Pacific Northwest
will amplify as it crosses the Northern Plains. The two systems
should phase, but to what extent and where is still in question.

It looks likely (70-85%) that a period of light rain associated
with broad ascent from warm air advection will affect all of
Wisconsin Monday night. The occluding system will usher in cooler
air behind it, but depending on the time and degree of the
phasing, the colder air (850mb temps below 0C) may arrive as early
as Tuesday afternoon (00Z ECMWF) on gusty northwest winds or as
late as Wednesday morning (00z GFS) on brisk west winds. The
ensembles of these models reflect these timing differences as
well.

Colder air will roll into southern WI behind the front by Thursday
(Thanksgiving). Highs will be in the lower to mid 30s Thursday
and Friday, with lows in the teens Thursday night and Friday
night. There is another system on the horizon that will bring a
swath of snow to the Upper Midwest, but the timing and location of
it will depend on how this first (mid week) system plays out.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1023 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

VFR conditions this afternoon through Saturday.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 242 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Northwesterly winds continue through this evening as low
pressure lingers in the Hudson Bay and high pressure builds
into the northern Plains. High pressure builds overhead
overnight tonight into Saturday, bringing light and variable
winds. Saturday afternoon, expect breezy southwest winds to
develop as weak low pressure progresses through Lake Superior.
Winds shift northwesterly Saturday night into Sunday as this low
pressure system exits to the east and a cold front pushes
northwest to southeast across the Lake. High pressure returns
Sunday night into Monday for an additional period of light and
variable winds.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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