Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
069 FXUS63 KMKX 301418 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 918 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly cooler today & Wednesday, with temperatures climbing well above normal for Thursday through the weekend. - Isolated to scattered shower & thunderstorm chances (~20-30%) return Sunday night through Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued 920 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 No major updates as low level fog has cleared out early this morning leaving largely quiet conditions the rest of the day. Some higher clouds will be expected for the majority of the day today. Kuroski && .SHORT TERM... Issued 324 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 Today through Wednesday night: Just some patchy ground fog is expected this morning mainly in low lying areas. Otherwise, high pressure of 1034 MB will track from nrn Ontario to Quebec today through Wednesday night, while the upper ridge from WI to wrn Ontario today rolls over into the Lower Great Lakes. This will enhance ely winds and weak cold advection with high temps ranging from lower 70s at the lake and lower 80s over south central WI for today, then a bit cooler for Wednesday. There should be just enough ely flow and drier air to prevent fog formation for tonight and Wed nt. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 324 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 Thursday through Monday: Strong surface high pressure continues southeastward into the northeastern CONUS on Thursday, continuing south towards the Mid Atlantic region and weakening into this weekend. This will allow easterly surface flow to gradually veer south through the latter half of this week, with warm advection boosting high temperatures back up. Dry weather continues through the rest of the work week, with decreasing high-altitude clouds on Thursday and continued mostly clear skies into Friday expected. Ensemble temperature plots show the heat peaking late this week (specifically Friday), with inland daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s, with only a slight cooling effect from the lake breeze (far eastern WI), abated by the synoptic southwesterly breeze. Late in the weekend and early next week marks our next mentionable chance for precipitation (20-30% chances) as the upper level ridge axis finally begins to shift east of our region and broad positively-tilted troughing begins to take hold to our west. At the surface a cold front approaches. Sheppard && .AVIATION... Issued 920 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 Mostly light east to northeast winds today with mostly high clouds expected in the forecast with no risk for low CIGS in the short term. There will be a chance for pockets of low VSBYs with ground fog overnight but otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Kuroski && .MARINE... Issued 324 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 Light and variable winds early this morning will become light northeast winds later this morning. A high pressure area of 30.4 inches will move from northern Ontario to Quebec today into Wednesday. This will allow east-northeast winds to become established over Lake Michigan becoming east-southeast winds on Wednesday. The high will advance into the northeastern United States through the end of the week, allowing winds to turn out of the south Thursday through Friday. Broad low pressure will form over the northern Great Plains Saturday, and will gradually attempt to work toward the upper Mississippi River Valley by the end of next weekend. Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Saturday evening through Monday. Waves may briefly approach Small Craft Advisory thresholds late tonight. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee