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FXUS63 KMKX 261639
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1039 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for portions of central
  and east central Wisconsin today. Gusty winds coupled with
  light snow accumulations totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected
  in the Advisory area, leading to blowing and drifting snow.
  Slick spots and pockets of reduced visibility may cause
  impacts to holiday travel.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect for the entire area Today. Gusts
  to 50 MPH are expected.

- Wind chills in the single digits tonight and Thanksgiving
  night.

- Active pattern with the potential for accumulating snow for
  this upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1038 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Snow and gusty winds are the story on this Holiday Travel day.
Snow is light across the region and winds are doing its best to
knock down flake size. Snowfall rates are around a tenth of an
inch per hour or less. There are scattered pockets of slightly
higher rates with larger flakes moving through the area. These
area are easily seen on radar with reflectivity around 30 to 40
Dbz. This pattern will continue through the late morning and
into the afternoon as the low pressure system in UP of Michigan
moves east. The edge of the precipitation is on the
Wisconsin/Minnesota line. As the snow comes to an end from west
to east this evening, lingering cyclogenesis on the back side
of the low will keep some flurries around. But buy and large the
accumulating snow will be done by tonight.

Winds with the snow will cause some lower visibilities at times,
especially under those areas of higher Dbz. Gust of 50 MPH
already occuring at Mitchell International. These elevated winds
will persist into the overnight hours. Use extra caution with
these strong winds, especially if you are in a higher profile
vehicle. Power outages remain possible.

Patterson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 402 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Today through Thursday:

Light snow is expected to move through southern WI today as the
TROWAL region behind a departing surface low moves overhead. The
snow is expected to be somewhat showery in nature having
distinct clumps where more intense bursts of snow may occur.
Within these bursts expect visibility to drop down to as low as
one mile. Along with the snow, very strong winds are expected to
mix down to the surface from west to east this morning, leading
to wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph. The combination of wind
with the falling snow, may cause areas of blowing snow that will
restrict visibility. Through today, accumulations will generally
be less than 1 inch along and south of I-94, but areas north of
I-94 have better chances of seeing 1-2 inches of accumulation.
The Kettle Moraine through Fond du Lac, Sheboygan, and
Washington Counties will likely see the highest totals as the
TROWAL/deformation band pivots overhead this afternoon and some
lift occurs over the modest terrain. As such, this area may see
some elevated travel impacts this afternoon.

Otherwise, a Wind Advisory is in effect from 6am to 6pm today
for the anticipated wind gusts. A Winter Weather Advisory is in
effect generally over central to east central WI to account for
the overlap of wind and snow, and the potential travel impacts
to Thanksgiving commuters.

Cold advection is anticipated to bring a much colder air mass
over the region tonight through tomorrow. While winds will ease
off in strength tonight, they will remain elevated, leading to
wind chills in the single digits. Turkey Trots thanks giving
morning will likely see wind chills in the low teens.

On Thanksgiving, expect continued elevated winds with gusts
between 30 and 35 mph. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, and some
saturation in the dendritic growth zone may support scattered
flurries to light snow showers.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 502 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Thursday night through Tuesday:

Winds will come down quickly Thursday evening, although remain 10
to 15 mph range for most of the night. Clearing skies are
possible, especially toward central WI. With 925mb temps down to
around -9C and no inversion, low temperatures of 16 to 19F are
expected. The surface pressure gradient will continue to be
fairly strong over southern Wisconsin through at least Friday
morning. The surface high pressure ridge does not arrive in south
central WI until 21Z Friday. High temperatures Friday will be
around 30.

Light winds Friday evening will allow for an inversion to quickly
set up, although clear skies are still in question. Increasing
clouds may help insulate the area, especially west of Madison.
Lows are forecast in the 16 to 20F range, but there could be
pockets of lower values.

Surface low pressure will track from western MO at 18Z Saturday
to northeast IL at 06Z Sunday. This is in response to a mid level
shortwave trough digging across the Central Plains and a coupled
upper jet structure that slides right across southern WI and
northern IL. While the exact low track is still in question due to
varying degrees of the surface cyclogenesis, the cold air will be
solidly in place across all of WI and nrn IL so the precip type
will be all snow. Moisture with this system will be plentiful due
to its origin in the Pacific Northwest and an extra boost from
the Gulf.

Right now, the precipitation amounts look fairly uniform across
WI, but I expect a band of higher QPF to develop on the northwest
side of this low, likely across a portion of southern WI. Models
will be able to resolve this over the next day or two. Ensembles
all show a high probability (80 to 100%) of greater than a half
inch of liquid for srn WI over a 24 hour period. The rule of
thumb with the forecast temps, layer thickness, and low track is
for snow- liquid ratios around 15:1. This equates to a fairly dry
snow. Wind will be on the lighter side with this system.

Accumulating snow looks likely, although this will be a long-
duration event with snowfall rates on the order of a half inch per
hour. It is possible that we will see 3 inches each 6 hour period,
so the snow on grassy surfaces will be able to add up by the time
it ends by late Sunday morning. With the weaker snowfall rates,
travel impacts may not be as high as they would with the same
amount of snow in a shorter time period. Keep up with the
forecast.

High pressure will briefly return on Monday and highs will be in
the teens. Look for additional light snow chances next week.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1038 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected through the period. Any
LIFR conditions across southern Wisconsin will be limited to
the brief pockets of slightly higher snowfall rates and the
gusty winds causing low visibilities around a mile or less.
These pockets will be small and quick moving so any LIFR
conditions should be very temporary and therefore not in the
TAFs. Outside of these areas of slightly higher snowfall rates,
visibilities will range from 2 to 6 SM until the snow ends this
evening. Blowing and drifting snow will be possible through
Thursday which could periodically impact visibilites beyond
tonight. Ceilings will be around 1.5 to 2.5 kft through
tonight. Ceilings will then slowly rise Thursday morning to
around 3-6 kft through the rest of the period.


Gusty winds are expected today with sustained northwest winds
of 20-28 kts (23-32 MPH) and gusts of 45-48 kts (50-55 MPH).
Northwest winds will be at there strongest across eastern and
central Wisconsin. This evening into tonight winds will start to
diminish. By Thursday morning, sustained northwest winds will
be 15-23 kts (17-23 MPH) with gusts up to 35 MPH. These breezy
winds Thursday will continue to diminish throughout the day.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 403 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Low pressure will track east across Lake Michigan this morning,
slowly approaching the Straits of Mackinac by noon CST today.
Very strong southwest gusts will quickly come up this morning
over the southern end of the lake an spread northward with time
through the rest of the morning. Storm force gusts will become
likely late this morning and into the afternoon over the
southern two thirds of the lake, with high end gales more likely
over the northern third of the lake.

Storm force gusts will then likely ease to high end gales around
midnight tonight, and gales will continue through Thursday and
into Thursday evening to early Friday morning before subsiding
over the lake.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
     WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
     WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 6 PM
     Wednesday.

     Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-
     WIZ059-WIZ060 until 6 PM Wednesday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
     LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
     LMZ876-LMZ878...midnight Thursday to midnight Friday.

     Storm Warning...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
     LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
     LMZ876-LMZ878 until midnight Thursday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563...3 PM Wednesday to
     3 AM Friday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...9 PM Wednesday to
     6 PM Thursday.

     Storm Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 9 PM
     Wednesday.

&&

$$

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