Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
090 FXUS63 KMKX 140145 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 845 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a moderate swim risk for the Lake Michigan beaches from Racine County northward tonight. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms at times Sunday afternoon into next week, with the better chances Tuesday into Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued 845 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 The sfc front and instability has once again shifted southwest into nrn IL and ne IA. With a cool and relatively moist airmass in place, areas of stratus will continue over se WI tnt and develop over portions of south central WI as well. Any stratus will then burn off by late Sat AM. Enely flow and weak sfc ridging will keep the frontal boundary to the west on Sat so no showers or storms are forecast. Gehring && .SHORT TERM... Issued 313 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Tonight through Saturday night: Some showers have developed in far southern portions of the area near the Illinois border, near an area of low level confluence where some cumulus clouds are becoming more congested. This activity may continue to develop near the Illinois border into early this evening, with peak heating, before dissipating. A few thunderstorms may occur as well, if enough instability develops. There is a moderate swim risk into tonight for the Lake Michigan beaches from Racine County northward. Breaking waves and currents are expected. Stay away from dangerous areas like piers, breakwalls and river outlets. Always have a floatation device with you in the water. East to northeast winds with the high pressure system to the northeast of the area should otherwise keep things dry tonight into Saturday night. There may be some lower clouds that linger tonight into Saturday morning, before scattering out by the afternoon. Highs should rise into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees well inland Saturday, with onshore winds keeping lakeshore areas in the 60s. Wood && .LONG TERM... Issued 313 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Sunday through Friday: Sunday into Monday night will be very conditional for shower and thunderstorm activity, and will depend on what develops over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa with a warm/stationary frontal boundary. The stable air over the area may limit any potential for convection to move into the area during this period, or any storms may shift southeast and miss the area to the southwest. Kept chance PoPs (30 to 40 percent) going for most of this period, but may need to reduce them in later periods if the drier trend continues. Temperatures should gradually warm up inland from the lake Sunday into Monday, perhaps into the middle 80s by Monday. There is a better chance for showers and storms to move through the region at times Tuesday into Wednesday night, as a warm front and surface low shifts into and through the region from the Central Plains. There is a 15 percent risk for severe weather in the SPC Day 6 outlook for Wednesday into Wednesday night, as the low passes through the region. There should be higher dew points into the 60s by then, with warm temperatures into the 80s, which should bring more instability. Forecast soundings are showing increasing deep layer bulk shear values as well. Things may change with the timing and impacts this far out for Tuesday into Wednesday, so this period will bear monitoring. Wood && .AVIATION... Issued 845 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Areas of MVFR Cigs over ern WI this evening expanding to all of srn WI late tnt. The stratus will then dissipate or lift by late Sat AM. VFR conditions for Sat afternoon and evening. Gehring && .MARINE... Issued 313 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 High pressure around 30.3 inches over eastern Ontario will keep winds primarily northeasterly through the weekend. Weak low pressure around 29.9 inches will develop in Missouri tonight, moving into the Ohio River Valley and weakening into Sunday. Northeast winds of 10 to 20 knots may bring waves of 3 to 4 feet across the nearshore waters into tonight. This will approach Small Craft Advisory levels. Chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast at times Monday into next week, as the Ontario high pressure system weakens and low pressure approaches the region from the Central Plains. Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee