Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 180203
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
903 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

.UPDATE...
(Issued 842 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021)

No change to ongoing forecast. Expect high clouds to continue
spreading into southern WI overnight, with thicker clouds holding
off until late tonight and Tuesday. May be some patchy late night
fog, but expect increasing boundary layer winds and clouds to keep
widespread thicker fog at bay.

Kavinsky

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 325 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021)

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Most of tnt will be clear to partly cloudy but low stratus will
increase gradually from south to north after 06Z. This is ahead of
a shortwave trough over sw MO that will slowly track across srn
WI for Tue afternoon and early evening. A sly LLJ of 40 kts will
accompany the upper wave and PWs will increase to 1.5 inches. Fcst
soundings become fairly moist through the entire troposphere thus
good pcpn efficiency for the rainfall. Warm, moist advection,
PVA, and low to mid level frontogenesis will make for a rainy late
morning into the evening. This will give a fairly good chance for
a north to south axis of a half an inch of rain with smaller
areas of 1 inch possible. There is some uncertainty with the
placement of the heaviest axis of rain but believe it will be btwn
Madison and Milwaukee.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 325 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021)

Wednesday through Monday:

A meridional pattern will continue across the country and much of
the continent for this period. High amplitude ridging is expected
over the ern USA to longwave troughing over the wrn USA. The
pattern will retrograde a bit late in the week. Overall, this
will bring sly winds and warm and humid conditions to srn WI.
There will be chances for showers and tstorms each day, higher
chances as you go west. A backdoor cold front may then affect the
area for Sunday afternoon with the front stalling over the area on
Monday.


Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 842 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021)

Weak high pressure will continue to bring VFR conditions to
southern WI for most of the night. South winds in the low levels
are expected to increase later tonight into Tuesday as the high
pressure ridge moves off to the east. Rapidly increasing moisture
in the low to mid levels along with an approaching weakening trof
of low pressure are expected to bring showers to southern WI on
Tuesday, continuing into Tuesday night. Lowering ceilings to MVFR
and likely IFR is expected on Tuesday.

Kavinsky

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 842 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021)

Lake surface water temperatures have warmed into the low to mid
50s over the last several days due to the light winds and milder
temperatures. A tightening pressure gradient across Lake Michigan
later Tuesday lingering into Wednesday along with a surge in the
low level winds may result in stronger winds mixing down to the
lake surface during this period. Forecast soundings over mid-lake
reveal a shallow low level inversion of only 3-500 feet. May need
to bump up wind speeds over portions of the lake with gusts of 20
to 30 kts, mainly Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Kavinsky

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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