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000
FXUS63 KMKX 101521
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1021 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

.UPDATE...
(Issued 1021 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023)

Forecast remains on track through this morning, with a slightly
quicker cold frontal passage expected late this afternoon through
tonight as frontogenesis develops. Light showers evident on radar
just to the north of the area may sink southward into northern
counties during the early afternoon hours, but dry air at the
surface looks to inhibit significant rainfall. Ahead of the front,
temperatures are rising rapidly into the lower to middle 80s.

MH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 515 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023)

Today through Sunday:

A warm day is expected today ahead of the approaching cold front
from the north. Middle to high clouds will gradually move into the
area, but modest southwest winds with warm air advection should
help push highs into the lower to middle 80s.

The well-advertised cold front is expected to push quickly south
southwestward across the area later this afternoon and evening,
pushing first down the lakeshore areas. CAMs have suggested a
somewhat quicker timing with this frontal passage, and it may end
up moving through even faster than the current forecast. Either
way, expected a quick drop in temperatures, especially near the
lake, with gusty north to northeast winds kicking in with an
abrupt wind shift with the front.

The gusty winds and subsequent building waves above 4 feet at the
beaches along Lake Michigan behind the front tonight will lead to
a high swim risk. These conditions will linger into Sunday night,
and a Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for this period.
Life threatening waves and currents are expected. Stay out of the
water, and stay away from dangerous areas like piers and
breakwalls.

Good low-level frontogenesis response with the front, and a
passing 500 mb shortwave trough later tonight into Sunday morning,
will bring a round of showers to the area. May see a few
thunderstorms develop as well, mainly with the frontal passage.
The shower activity should be more scattered in nature, so
rainfall amounts will vary over short distances. CAMs and
ensembles continue to suggest amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches
through Sunday morning, which is welcome rainfall, but will not
alleviate the drought conditions over most of the area. The
showers should move out of the area by Sunday afternoon.

Lingering gusty north to northeast winds and low clouds will make
for a cool Sunday, especially near the lake, with highs in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs more into the 60s are anticipated
well inland, though these may need to be brought down in later
forecasts.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 515 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023)

Sunday night through Friday:

Deterministic models and ensembles continue to show the closed 500
mb low over the region slowly rotating to the east Sunday night
into Tuesday night. This will keep the area within its cyclonic
flow aloft, and allow for various vorticity maxima to rotate
through the area during this period. Forecast soundings are
showing enough moisture in the air column developing Monday into
Monday night/Tuesday for chances for showers and perhaps a storm
or two with limited instability. The best chances will be closer
to the upper low over eastern and northeastern parts of the area.

Again, rainfall should be fairly light like tonight into Sunday
morning, but welcome nonetheless. Northwest winds may increase
Monday into Tuesday, and temperatures may remain below seasonal
normals in eastern parts of the area. Areas more inland should be
closer to normal, though that will depend on cloud cover extent.

The rest of the week looks fairly uncertain, with ensembles
showing some spread in the range of temperatures. The trend is
more toward above normal temperatures once again, though the 500
mb flow is fairly uncertain and confidence is modest at best at
this time. Any precipitation chances will hinge on how the upper
flow pattern shakes out.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1021 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023)

VFR conditions with southwesterly winds will continue through
early this evening. Some gustier winds are expected near the
lakeshore. Late this afternoon through this evening, a cold front
will produce an abrupt wind shift to the north-northeast.

Gusty north to northeast winds will then affect the area
throughout the overnight hours into Sunday, with 1000 to 1500 feet
AGL ceilings developing across the area. Scattered showers and an
isolated thunderstorm or two expected during the overnight hours
into early Sunday morning. VFR conditions will regain prominence
midday Sunday.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 515 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023)

Southwest to south winds are expected this morning across the lake.
A cold front is then expected to quickly move from north to south
across the lake later this morning into early this evening. An
abrupt shift to gusty north to northeast winds is expected with
the frontal passage, with the gusty winds lingering into Sunday
evening. These winds will bring building wave heights as well into
Sunday night.

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for this evening into
Sunday night for the nearshore waters for the gusty winds and
building waves. Gusts to 30 knots are expected over the nearshore
and open waters of Lake Michigan. At this time, think gales are
not likely to occur, though the trend has been upward with gusts.

Low pressure over Lower Michigan should slowly move east early
next week, with northwest to west winds lingering across the lake.
Winds may become lighter by midweek. The Small Craft Advisory may
need to be extended into Monday and Tuesday, if the northwest
winds get gusty enough.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060...11 PM Saturday to 1 AM
     Monday.

     Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...1 AM Sunday to
     4 AM Monday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...7 PM Saturday to 1 AM
     Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...10 PM Saturday to 4 AM
     Monday.

&&

$$

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