850
FXUS63 KMKX 030402
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1002 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A period of light snow is expected later tonight into
  Wednesday morning, as a cold front moves through the area.
  This may bring slippery roads for the Wednesday morning
  commute.

- The cold front will bring colder temperatures and wind chills
  Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night.

- Continued below average temperatures into the weekend.

- Relatively active pattern this weekend into next week, but
  with low confidence on the details.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1002 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Light radar returns in central Wisconsin are being eaten up by
dry air in the low levels. Reports of snow/flurries making it to
the ground are much further west along the state border with
Minnesota. Webcams across southern Wisconsin show no snow
falling under these returns which supports the evaporation, but
the layer of dry air isnt necessarily at the sfc. Dew point
depressions are around 3 to 4 degrees for many locations in
southern Wisconsin which definitely helps. Looking to the north
in Adams and Juneau counties where the low levels are saturated
with no reports of snow, points to this dry air being just
above the sfc. Either way this dry air should erode overtime as
WAA kicks in overnight and evaporative cooling takes place. No
major changes to the forecast tonight. Still expecting snow with
the passage of the cold front tonight into Wednesday morning.

Patterson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 253 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Low stratus remains quite thin across the area. The scattered
out areas near Lake Michigan may linger into early this evening,
before the low clouds move back in. Low clouds may shift out of
western parts of the area as well, with middle to high clouds
moving in for a time this evening before more low clouds move in
later tonight into Wednesday morning.

Modest warm air advection tonight into Wednesday morning should
keep temperatures fairly steady, before a cold front moves
southeast through the area Wednesday morning. The front should
move southeast of the area by midday. The front will bring a
period of light snow to the area late tonight into Wednesday
morning, with some modest low level frontogenesis response and
the modest warm air advection.

The moisture profiles on area forecast soundings are saturated
for a three to five hour window, generally speaking, later
tonight into Wednesday morning. There may be up to one half
inch of snowfall during this period, which may bring slippery
driving conditions for the Wednesday morning commute. Amounts
may be a little higher if the upward vertical motion gets
stronger, but have not seen any indications of this yet.

Winds will then shift northwest Wednesday afternoon and night,
with strong cold air advection bringing colder temperatures and
wind chills into the area. Temperatures in the middle to upper
20s will fall in the afternoon and through Wednesday night, with
lows in the single digits below zero over most of the area by
12Z Thursday. These lows may end up colder than forecast, if
winds decouple and skies clear out.

Wind chills of 14 below to 19 below zero are expected as well
later Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and again Thursday
night into Friday morning. At this time, not expecting wind
chills to drop below 20 below zero, but could if lows Wednesday
night get lower than expected.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 253 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Thursday through Tuesday:

Cold temperatures linger Thursday into Thursday night, with
highs only in the 10 to 15 degree Fahrenheit range Thursday.
Warm air advection develops with increasing southwest winds
Thursday night, with single digit temperatures slowly rising
but the cold wind chills lingering.

General west northwest flow at 500 mb should linger across the
region Friday into the early portions of next week, with various
shortwave troughs shifting through the area at times. This will
lead to periodic chances for light snow to occur. The better
chances may be later in the weekend and again early next week,
though the details and timing remain fairly uncertain per
ensembles. Temperatures may gradually moderate closer to
seasonal normal values toward the middle of next week.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1002 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected through Wednesday afternoon.
Predominately MVFR and IFR conditions are expected. While
chances are very low for a few pockets of LIFR ceilings its
worth mentioning. These isolated pockets of LIFR ceilings are
upstream in Minnesota and are around 300 to 400 feet. Otherwise
ceilings will be around 900 to 2500 feet are expected. Ceilings
will start to rise and skies clear Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night. Light snow from roughly midnight through
Wednesday morning will bring slightly lower visibilities around
3-5 SM. Accumulations will be light of a couple tenths of an
inch to an inch expected.

Breezy southwest winds this evening ahead of the cold front will
become northwesterly behind it Wednesday morning. Winds will
remain breezy through Wednesday afternoon. Light northwest winds
are expected Wednesday night.


Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 253 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

A strong cold front will move southeast across Lake Michigan
Wednesday. Gusty southwest winds are expected ahead of this
front tonight into early Wednesday morning, shifting to gusty
northwest winds behind it Wednesday afternoon and night. Winds
will remain just below gales for most the lake, though a brief
period of low end gales is possible Wednesday night over the far
northern part of the lake. Very cold air with this system will
result in periods of freezing spray Wednesday night into Friday.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect starting at 9 PM CST this
evening until 6 AM CST Thursday, for gusty southwest winds this
evening into Wednesday morning becoming northwest Wednesday
afternoon and night. Waves of 3 to 5 feet are expected toward
the open waters.

Lighter winds are expected Thursday, with the influence of
strong high pressure around 30.4 inches over Illinois and
Indiana. Another period of elevated southwest winds will occur
Thursday night into Friday, with some gale force gusts possible
over the northern portions of the lake.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 AM
     Thursday.

&&

$$

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