Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
683 FXUS63 KMKX 141451 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 951 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for showers and thunderstorms at times Sunday afternoon into next week, with the better chances Tuesday into Wednesday. - Warmer temperatures inland but cooler temps near the lake through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued 951 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Any lingering low stratus clouds will continue to dissipate by midday, as daytime heating continues. Some diurnal cumulus clouds may develop this afternoon inland from Lake Michigan. Highs should reach around 80 degrees well inland and remain in the 60s close to Lake Michigan. Wood && .SHORT TERM... Issued 340 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Today through Sunday: With a boundary to the north and west and a low pressure system to the south we expect to remain largely dry today especially with the low to mid levels remaining fairly dry. In addition there with be no real forcing over the area to bring anything even if we could manage enough moisture to see a shower or storm. Thus the high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft look to be enough to keep us dry through tonight. While we cannot rule out a shower overnight they would largely be kept toward west central WI and isolated as the low to the west and associated boundary tries to sneak some showers into the northwest part of the CWA. Into Sunday the front will continue to nudge toward the CWA but there remains substantial uncertainty on exactly what will occur with this. Several models have some showers and storms pushing in or developing over at least the western half of the CWA while other models have almost nothing happening. This seems to be a result of differing solutions with respect to the front and how far east it pushes. Another reason is the differences in forcing aloft with a developing trough and upper low in the Missouri Valley region. Some models have this weaker and less developed and thus less PVA associated with the system while other models have a fully developed upper low with PVA stretching into the CWA. CAMs show some of this same uncertainty but have generally trended a bit wetter at least for western parts of the CWA with drier air aloft hold a bit more steady further east. Generally the timing for this points toward mid morning for showers and even some weak storms to develop across western parts of the CWA and drift east into the afternoon. Some showers may make it further east but showers will be dissipating as they push further east. Then CAMs start to point toward more activity into the late afternoon and early evening developing largely west of the CWA but pushing east toward the CWA. This activity, as CAMs suggest, is expected to be largely unorganized with low deep layer shear and thus stronger storms are not expected, especially since instability is much better further west and as storms migrate east into the evening instability would be expected to fall off fairly quickly. But some weakening storms could be expect in the CWA late Sunday afternoon into the early evening. Kuroski && .LONG TERM... Issued 340 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Monday through Friday: A weak shortwave trough and any showers or storms will likely be exiting srn WI Mon AM. A sfc trough will then track from SD into central MN on Mon then into Upper MI for Mon nt. Aloft, another weak shortwave trough and swly low level jet will accompany the sfc trough and remain mostly north of srn WI. Nevertheless, weak low to mid level warm, moist advection will be occurring over srn WI. 30-50 percent chances of showers and storms are forecast, greatest to the nw of Madison, where decaying convection could move into the region. The remains of the sfc trough/cold front will then approach or move into srn WI late Tue or Tue nt with additional chances for showers or storms, but greater storm coverage and organization would be expected for Wed. A shortwave trough will cross the central Rockies into the Great Plains on Tue with cyclogenesis to some degree expected from the central Great Plains into central or srn WI for Wed. A warm front with very warm and humid conditions will develop into srn WI ahead of these features with an eventual round or two of deep convection and possible strong storms. A weak sfc ridge would then be expected for late Thu into Fri. 80 degree temps and dewpoints of 65-70F are expected away from the lake for Mon-Wed, although lake locations will still be much warmer than the recent cool conditions. Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 951 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Any lingering low stratus with ceilings around 1500 feet AGL should dissipate by midday, with daytime heating continuing. Winds should be light to modest and easterly today, with northeast winds at the terminals near Lake Michigan. Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds may develop this afternoon inland. Light east to northeast winds are expected tonight, with light to modest east to southeast winds expected on Sunday. Some clouds may move into western portions of the area, including the Madison and Janesville terminals, overnight into Sunday. Scattered diurnal cumulus may develop in the afternoon as well across the area. There are chances for showers (20 to 30 percent) and perhaps a few thunderstorms during this period, though uncertainty is high with if and how widespread any precipitation may get. For now, will leave this mention out of those terminals. Wood && .MARINE... Issued 951 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 High pressure around 30.3 inches along the Ontario and Quebec border will keep winds primarily easterly to northeasterly through the most of the weekend. Weak low pressure around 29.9 inches in southern Illinois will push east today, moving into the Ohio River Valley and weakening into Sunday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast at times Monday into next week, as the Ontario high pressure system weakens and low pressure approaches the region from the Central Plains. Kuroski/Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee