051
FXUS63 KMKX 050949
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
349 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dusting of snow possible this afternoon and evening. Patchy
  freezing drizzle may mix in during the evening hours.

- An inch or two of snow is possible Saturday night into early
  Sunday.

- Below normal temperatures will persist into next week, with
  additional rounds of light snow possible at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 349 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Today and Tonight:

A shortwave will bring some light precipitation to southern
Wisconsin this afternoon and evening. Latest model soundings
show fairly deep saturation once the better forcing arrives by
late afternoon, with mainly snow likely initially due to plenty
of saturation within the dendrite growth zone. There could be
some drying out within the DGZ as the precip winds down, so left
a mention of freezing drizzle in the forecast for the evening
hours. The best chance for up to 0.5" of snow will be mainly
north of I-94, with decreasing amounts towards the south. Temps
will be somewhat milder today under southwest winds ahead of the
shortwave, though still well below normal highs for early
December.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 349 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Saturday through Thursday:

High pressure will briefly move through the area on Saturday,
bringing a short round of dry weather. Despite some sunshine,
high temps will be even colder tomorrow behind the departed
shortwave.

Another wave is expected to roll through the area Saturday night
into Sunday, bringing more snow chances to southern Wisconsin.
Still a fair amount of disagreement among model solutions with
the strength and track of the surface low associated with this
wave. Overall, the consensus of the latest models keep the track
of the low and better forcing south, along with the higher
precip totals. Still looks like enough lift and moisture in
southern Wisconsin for an inch or two of snow. Will have to keep
an eye on model trends with the surface low, as a nudge
northward could bring snow totals up a bit.

High pressure will bring dry and well below normal temps to the
area Monday. Additional shortwaves will be possible at times
Monday night through mid-week, with quite a bit of variance
among models at this time as to the the strength and track of
theses systems. Overall though, it looks like below normal
temps and occasionally snowy conditions will persist through
the extended period.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 349 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Low level wind shear will persist through the early morning
hours, winding down 12-14Z. Ceilings will remain mainly VFR
today, but may briefly dip to MVFR based on upstream conditions.
Much lower ceilings are then expected to move in from the
northwest late this afternoon into the evening as a shortwave
moves through. This wave will also bring a dusting of light snow
(0.5" or less) in the afternoon and evening hours, particularly
along/north of I-94. Visibilities of 3 to 5 SM will be possible
with the snow. There could be some patchy freezing drizzle
across southern Wisconsin during the evening hours as well.
Decreasing clouds and improving ceilings are then expected
Friday night into early Saturday behind the departing shortwave.


DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 349 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Gusty southwest winds will continue today between a low
pressure trough of 29.7 inches approaching from the northwest
and high pressure of 30.4 inches over the northeast United
States. Gale force gusts are expected to persist across the
north half of the lake through the early morning hours. Small
Craft Advisory conditions will persist through this evening.

Breezy westerly winds tonight will gradually ease while veering
to the northwest on Saturday, as high pressure of 30.0 inches
builds in from the west. Breezy northerly winds are then
expected Sunday as low pressure passes by to the south and
strong high pressure of 30.5 inches begins to build in from the
west. More rounds of gusty winds are expected at times the first
half of next week, as multiple low pressure systems move
through the region.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ868 until 9 AM Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until
     midnight Saturday.

&&

$$

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