Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
708 FXUS63 KMKX 192105 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 305 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight chances (~10-20%) for light rain or drizzle on Thursday. - Temperatures hovering near or just above normal this weekend into early next week. Quiet weather through this period. - More active pattern with a cooling trend towards the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 305 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Tonight through Thursday night: As high pressure exits the Great Lakes region eastward Tonight through Thursday, mostly dry and quiet weather is expected. Winds remain light and variable into Tonight, followed by a light southwest breeze developing Thursday. An arc of low stratus cloud is gradually approaching from the southwest, and should overspread the region this evening into Tonight, limiting potential for fog and holding overnight low temperatures to the mid to upper 30s across the region. A sprinkle (trace) of drizzle this evening from said clouds cannot be completely ruled out, particularly for south-central and southwestern WI. Low clouds linger into Thursday, with the aforementioned southwest breeze boosting high temps to the low 50s (around 6 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms). 10-20% precip chances are included for the majority of the region on account of the low stratus producing some drizzle, models allow for only a few hundredths of an inch liquid precip (if anything at all) on Thursday. Forecast soundings indicate the moisture / saturation extends through only the lowest 5000 ft AGL of the atmosphere (to the 850mb level at best), gradually drying out Thursday night. Sheppard && .LONG TERM... Issued 305 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Friday through Wednesday: Mild temperatures (at or slightly above seasonal norms) and quiet / dry weather are expected late this week through early next week. The subtropical and polar jet streams remain split and mostly zonal through this period, preventing any major ascent / active weather. Weak low pressure over the TX/OK panhandles tracks northeastward towards Illinois late Friday into Saturday, with a weak blocking high pressure near MN stopping it`s advance and allowing only ~10% rain chances to arrive towards the WI/IL border on it`s closest approach. The pattern looks to become more active towards the middle of next week, with the ECMWF and GFS both resolving healthy troughing in the jet, tracking east into the Great Plains and eventually lifting our way. Ensemble temperature plots also indicate a cooling trend to begin mid next week. Sheppard && .AVIATION... Issued 305 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 OVC low stratus clouds (MVFR ceilings) continue to enter the region from the southwest, and should gradually overspread the entire region this evening through tonight, and may even linger at BKN to OVC coverage through Thursday as well. Ceiling heights are likely to descend to Fuel-Alt MVFR or IFR levels tonight for eastern WI, and even worse (IFR to LIFR) for south central and southwestern WI. On the bright side, this should limit any fog potential to near zero, with the exception of any drizzle attempting to saturate the lower PBL/NBL. Light drizzle will be possible at times, only amounting to a trace or few hundredths of an inch liquid accumulations. Not enough confidence in measurable drizzle for inclusion in the TAFs at this time. Ceilings lift slightly on Thursday, but forecast soundings continue to hint at lingering MVFR. Light and variable winds expected this afternoon through tonight, then 10 KT southwest winds on Thursday. Sheppard && .MARINE... Issued 305 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 High pressure of 30.3 inches continues eastward from the Great Lakes region tonight into Thursday, allowing light south winds to develop tonight, turning southwest and becoming breezy over northern portions of the lake Thursday afternoon and evening (20 to 25 KT gusts). Low pressure around 29.5 inches tracking east across Canada drags a weak cold front across the lake Thursday evening, with winds veering west to northwest and decelerating behind it. Light north to northwest winds continue into Friday, becoming light and variable into early Saturday as weak high pressure passes over the lake. Sheppard && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee