243
FXUS63 KMKX 221501
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
901 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures several degrees above normal this weekend into
  early next week.

- 80-90 percent chance of rain Monday night, lingering into
  Tuesday.

- Below normal temperatures move in Thanksgiving Day onward as
  polar air arrives from Canada.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 901 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Mid level clouds are increasing across the area this morning,
within a region of warm advection ahead of a cold front. Winds
will pick up this afternoon just ahead of and behind the front,
though limited mixing should keep gusts largely under control.
No precipitation is expected with the front, and skies will
clear this evening in its wake.

Boxell

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 301 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Today through Sunday:

Surface high pressure will exit WI today as a low pressure
trough swings across the Upper Midwest. The upper dynamics are
fairly strong with this system, and it is a little uncertain
about how well the stronger winds in the mid levels will
translate down to the surface. Expect an area of mid level
clouds associated with warm air advection to spread into
southern WI later this morning. Very dry low levels and shallow
moisture around 700mb will keep us dry.

A robust mid level shortwave trough and the entrance region of
an upper jet will push into central and southern WI this
afternoon, and a 40 kt low level jet will be just ahead of it.
Models are not showing efficient mixing this afternoon, but the
the dry low levels may allow for some higher gusts to mix down
to the surface. Gusts up to 25 mph are possible this afternoon.

Winds will shift to the west-northwest tonight. The strong 850mb
winds with modest cold air advection should allow for a few
gusts up to 20 mph, with some higher gusts near Lake Michigan
due to better mixing.

High temperatures ahead of the trough are expected to reach
around 50 this afternoon. There is a potential for them to
overperform as 925mb temps rise to around 6C and decent mixing,
but we will continue to assess upstream obs before leaning
toward the NBM 95th percentile for MaxT. With winds remaining
elevated overnight and the cold air advection not too strong,
lows will be a little warmer than last night, in the lower 30s.

Lighter westerly winds are expected Sunday with surface high
pressure drifting across the Midwest. Temperatures will rebound
into the lower 50s with plenty of sunshine. Lows Sunday night
will be in the lower 30s once again.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 301 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Monday through Saturday:

High pressure will exit into Monday as low pressure ejects from
the Colorado Rockies and swings northeastward into the Upper
Mississippi Valley. A warm frontal feature from this system will
produce the first waves of precipitation across southern Wisconsin
by Monday afternoon (20-50% chances). Meanwhile, a
shortwave/clipper system will propagate southeastward around the
upper level ridging and produce additional lift. Phasing between
these two systems is still in question, with 00Z modeling
indicating more separation between the two. Still, a prolonged
period of precipitation is expected Monday night (90% chance
across all of southern Wisconsin) into Tuesday (40-60% chance),
and perhaps lingering into Wednesday (15-25% chance) as these
systems interact and slowly exit to the northeast.

As the two waves combine and stall over the James
Bay/northwestern Quebec region midweek, Expect the first cold air
swath of potentially several in a much-colder pattern shift that
looks to last into early December. Stiff northwesterly winds and
surface high pressure building in from the Canadian Prairies will
bring below normal temperatures Thursday (Thanksgiving) and Friday,
with highs in the low 30s and lows in the teens. This will set
the stage for additional low pressure development in the lee of
the southern Colorado Rockies, bringing a return to temperatures
in the upper 30s and precipitation (30-50% chance) on Saturday as
a warm frontal feature develops across the Midwest from the
aforementioned low.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 901 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Clouds
will increase today, but will remain based in the mid levels--
generally around 6-10kft. Winds will be gusty at times this
afternoon, initially from the southwest, then veering to a
westerly and eventually northwesterly direction. Clear skies and
lighter winds are expected overnight into Sunday morning.

Boxell

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 301 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

High pressure will cross southern Lake Michigan this morning.
Expect breezy southwest winds to develop this afternoon as weak
low pressure progresses through Lake Superior. Winds shift
northwesterly tonight with the passage of a cold front. Gusts up
to 25 kt are expected over the nearshore and 30 kt over the
open lake, so a Small Craft Advisory is in effect from mid
afternoon through tonight.

High pressure briefly returns Sunday. Modest southerly winds
will develop Monday as low pressure moves into the Upper
Mississippi River Valley. The low will strengthen over Minnesota
and Wisconsin on Tuesday and cross Lake Superior Wednesday
morning. Timing and strength of this low remain uncertain, but a
period of gale force gusts is looking likely over Lake Michigan
Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...3 PM
     Saturday to 6 AM Sunday.

&&

$$

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