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111
FXUS63 KMKX 221932
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
232 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence - Medium to
High.

Will continue Flash Flood Watch across southern and southeast
Wisconsin for now. Large area of light to moderate showers
associated with upstream mid-level short wave should continue to
spread across southern WI next several hours. Fortunately, focus
of low level jet is shifting to the east and south, but will clip
far southeast WI through the early evening. Unseasonably high
precipitable water values will decrease overnight as drier air
surges in from the west. Low level winds will increase from the
west to northwest behind low pressure that will continue to
strengthen and move northeast across northern IL this evening.
Additional rainfall of one quarter inch to one inch is expected
from this aftn through this evening, which may yet result in
localized flash or areal flooding. Flash Flood Watch will likely
be cancelled this evening as widespread showers shift off to the
east.

MONDAY...Forecast Confidence - Medium to High.

Drier air will continue to feed across southern WI on Monday as
breezy west to northwest winds are expected for much of the day.
Lingering low level moisture will likely result in some cumulus
during the day. Temperatures should rebound back into the lower
70s most areas.

Monday night and Tuesday - Confidence...Medium
Surface high to our south will be ridging into the area and may
set up a fog scenario as overall winds will be on the lighter
side. Low levels should be decoupled enough to allow for the fog
with all the low level moisture in place. The 925 winds and the
low level waa doesn`t really kick in with earnest until Tuesday.
So will have some fog mention for Monday night. South/southwest
925 winds of up to 35 knots will result in breezy and mild
conditions with highs in the 70s.

Tuesday night and Wednesday - Confidence...Medium
Low pressure will be moving north of the area helped along by a
mid level energy with the greatest punch from that also to our
north. Low level front and at least some influence from that wave
to the north will result in a chance of showers/storms overnight
and perhaps lingering into the morning hours for a time. The GFS
is quicker than the GEM/ECMWF solutions which hang onto the
precipitation chances longer. For now will keep a chance in the
morning and then dry things out for the afternoon.

Wednesday night and Thursday - Confidence...Medium
High pressure will build into the area and pass to our east this
period. So dry weather is expected with a return flow evolving by
Thursday afternoon.

Thursday night through Friday night - Confidence...Medium
A return to unsettled conditions is expected as a low level waa/moist
advection ramps up. there may be some breaks in the action at times
on Friday but more storms may fire along cold front Friday
afternoon/evening.

Saturday - Confidence...Low to Medium
Model consensus is build high pressure into the area from the
north though some suggestion that frontal boundary could hang up
close enough to keep some precip concern going. The GFS shows a
stronger intrusion of the high into srn WI with a much further
south push of the boundary. This would lead to a drier scenario.

Sunday - Confidence...Low
Models differ on evolution of next low with regards to timing and
placement but a continuation to the active pattern looks likely.
Lots of time yet to sort out the details but for now going with
the blended guidance.

&&

.AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...Variable ceilings are expected through the
evening with trend toward remaining MVFR or lower. Showers are
expected to affect much of the area late this aftn and evening as
boundary layer winds decrease. Surge of low level cold air behind
front may bring a period of lower ceilings to the area as well
later tonight. VFR should return to the area late tonight into
Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...Thinning of overcast has allowed gustier southwest winds
to mix to surface over far southeast WI and nearshore areas closer
to shore south of North Point light. Few gusts have reached 23 kts
at Kenosha lakeshore and Racine Reef platform, however expect the
gustiness to decrease through the late afternoon. Since the gusts
have been minimally into the criteria, have held off on a Small
Craft Advisory in this area. Low pressure is expected to pass
across far southern Lake Michigan this evening. Southwest winds
ahead of the low and passing cold front will become north to
northeast for a time across northern Lake Michigan and west to
northwest across the south. The west to northwest winds with gusts
to 30 knots will spread across northern portions of the lake late
tonight into Monday. Patchy fog is expected until the winds turn
more west to north later tonight.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for WIZ058>060-062>072.

LM...None.
&&

$$
Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Monday Night through Sunday...Collar