Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 261426 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
926 AM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

(Issued 926 AM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021)

The forecast looks on track through the remainder of today. Lake
effect clouds may brush the east and high clouds will push in from
the west later. Otherwise, expect plenty of sunshine with high
temps near normal for late October.



(Issued 300 AM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021)

Today through Wednesday:

With the upper level closed low now off to the east we will a
ridge push in from the west. This will be the main inhibitor of
any precip in the area today through Wednesday. In addition there
will be distinct dryness in the midlevels and minimal forcing.
Thus generally we expect dry conditions and mostly clear skies for
much of the day today. There will still be some influence from the
lake today yielding some lake effect clouds due to the instability
from the lake to air temperature differences with some
convergence, which could allow for some brief showers. But as
winds shift to the north anything lake effect related should shift
to the southeast and out of the CWA. Lingering lake effect clouds
along the shoreline may persist today but the rest of the CWA
should be mostly clear.

Into Wednesday, similar conditions will persist with the ridge
overhead and no moisture or forcing to be had thus keeping the
area mostly dry. However as we move into the afternoon and evening
we will see a new area of low pressure from the west start to push
in. This area will likely bring some higher clouds into the region
though the CWA should remain mostly if not entirely dry as limited
forcing will exist to produce any precipitation from the increased
mid level moisture. This system will move fairly slowly likely
delaying the time in which we see any precipitation across the CWA
until Thursday.



(Issued 300 AM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021)

Wednesday night through Monday:

Southeast winds will increase Wednesday night as low pressure
deepens across the Missouri Bootheel. Rain chances will increase
very late Wednesday night, but more likely Thursday morning, as
the surface low lifts into southern Illinois. Showers will
continue Thursday and Thursday night, with most locations seeing
at least some rain. East winds will be gusty, but should not be
nearly as strong as what we saw Sunday night and Monday.

Rain will likely dwindle to light showers by mid day Friday,
though activity may remain a little more robust near the lake due
to lake enhancement with the continued onshore flow.

Rain should end for everyone by Friday night, with shortwave
ridging building into the area for Saturday. This should result in
a pleasant start to the weekend, with temperatures in the upper
50s to near 60 and relatively light winds.

Guidance is still in good agreement in bringing a cold front
through the area Sunday or Monday. Behind that front, much colder
air will build into the area, with highs likely in the 40s next



(Issued 926 AM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021)

Quiet weather is expected today and tonight under high pressure.
Lake effect clouds may brush the east today into this evening,
with brief MVFR conditions possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will persist into at least early Wednesday.



(Issued 300 AM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021)

North to northeast winds will decrease slowly today with the
system out to the east continuing out of the region. However much
of the day winds will still likely gust to 20 kts. This will keep
waves in the nearshore areas above 4 ft through much of the day.
Thus a Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until 18z today.
Into Wednesday the high pressure will shift winds back to the east
and then to the southeast, remaining mostly light to moderate.
Southeast winds will increase Thursday ahead of another system
pushing through. Winds will switch back to the north/northeast
Friday with the passing of that system and become very breezy
potentially bringing some gales across the lake again from Friday
into Saturday.



LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 1 PM



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