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000
FXUS63 KMKX 290347
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
947 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

.UPDATE...
(Issued 945 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023)

It`s a chilly start to the night across southern Wisconsin as temperatures
have managed to drop into the mid to upper teens. Significant
additional cooling is not expected overnight as cloud cover and
WAA moves through southern Wisconsin, so thinking we have hit our
min temps for the evening. Southwesterly winds are also beginning
to pick up this evening as the LLJ moves east into Wisconsin.
These elevated wind speeds are expected to persist overnight and
through much of Wednesday before decreasing Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Overall, the forecast remains on track for tonight.

Falkinham

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 250 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023)

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Winds have shifted to become southwesterly across much of the
area, with gustier conditions expected to develop overnight
tonight and allow temperatures to begin to rise before the sun
does. With temperatures in southwestern Wisconsin and portions of
south-central Wisconsin struggling to get into the 20s today,
these areas stand the best shot to see lows in the upper teens,
while the remaining regions dip closer to 20 degrees. High-level
clouds moving into the area along the southern side of an
approaching shortwave may prevent some diurnal cooling, but
should be high enough to allow for rapid cooling during the early
evening hours. Cloud cover will persist through the overnight
hours.

Gusty westerly to southwesterly winds continue through Wednesday,
with gusts diminishing into Wednesday night as the parent
shortwave propagates eastward out of the Great Lakes region.
Clouds will gradually decrease Wednesday, with some WAA aloft
allowing for increasing cloudiness Wednesday night. Expect high
temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees on Wednesday,
with lows in the upper 20s to near 30 degrees Wednesday night.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 250 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023)

Thursday through Tuesday:

Shortwaves and slowly building upper level ridging in the Great
Plains are the main concerns at play in the long range forecast.
Generally cold air advective pattern exists aloft through much of
the long range with southern Wisconsin along the southern side of
large scale troughing centered over the Hudson Bay. That being
said, multiple embedded shortwaves propagating through the flow
will result in surface WAA with southwesterly winds ahead of each
system. A few chances for snowfall and rain showers exist with
these shortwaves, although exact precipitation type is in question
for any specific time period due to a lack of confidence in
timing and placement. In general, expecting slight chances
(15-30%) for a mixture of rain and snow showers with temperatures
around normal Thursday through the weekend. A more significant
system may deepen across the Great Lakes on Tuesday, which could
lead to more widespread cold air and wintry precipitation before
the system exits to the east.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 945 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023)

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Mid-clouds around 10000-12000ft are currently moving across
southern Wisconsin and are expected to persist overnight as a mid-
level shortwave and WAA move through Wisconsin. However, some
lower cloud bases generally between 5000-10000ft are possible.

LLWS remains the main concern over the next few hours as a LLJ of
40-45kt associated with low pressure in Canada moves through
southern Wisconsin. The LLWS threat is expected to diminish by
early Wednesday morning as the low moves east. Otherwise, gusty
southwest surface winds will prevail overnight and through much of
Wednesday before decreasing Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Falkinham

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 250 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023)

Southwesterly winds will continue as high pressure remains over
the Tennessee Valley and low pressure approaches northwestern
Ontario. As low pressure moves through Ontario overnight, expect
winds to increase to gust to 25 to 30 kt. A few gale force gusts
near 35 kt are possible, but not expected to be widespread. A
Small Craft Advisory is in effect from this evening through midday
Wednesday for these gusts. Winds will diminish gradually into
midday Wednesday, but will remain breezy through Wednesday night.
Thursday, westerly to northwesterly flow will develop, with breezy
conditions across the southern half of the lake. Winds will then
become northerly and diminish quickly into Thursday night.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until noon
     Wednesday.

&&

$$

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