279
FXUS62 KMLB 281851
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
251 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

- Scattered lightning storms are expected this afternoon and
  evening with 40-60% chance of rain. Main storm hazards will be
  frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 55 mph, and locally heavy
  rainfall, which may cause localized minor flooding in urban and
  poor drainage areas.

- Storms will begin to focus more over the interior from this
  weekend into next week as onshore flow deepens, forcing a
  diffuse Atlantic sea breeze more quickly inland.

- Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, with peak heat indices of
  100 to 106 today and Saturday. Heat indices may approach 108
  next week. When planning to be outdoors, stay well hydrated and
  consider taking frequent breaks in the shade or air
  conditioning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Today-Tonight... Florida will remain situated between two upper
level high pressure systems, one in the Atlantic and one over TX/SW
US, as an upper level trough shifts eastward towards the eastern US
through the day. Shortwave energy will continue to traverse the base
of this trough over the Deep South and across the Florida peninsula.
At the surface, high pressure across the Atlantic will remain nearly
stationary across south central Florida. Locally, offshore (S-SW)
flow will persist with speeds 5-10 mph. The east coast sea breeze is
forecast to form this afternoon, turning the winds onshore (E-SE) as
the sea breeze pushes inland. Moisture will remain near to slightly
above normal, with PW values of 1.9-2.2". This will support a medium
to high (30-60 percent) chance of showers and storms through the
period. CAM guidance shows scattered showers and lightning storms
forming early to mid afternoon near the coast with the formation of
the sea breeze. Coverage is then expected to increase and focus
across the interior late afternoon and early evening. Highest
coverage of storms will be across the interior with the sea breeze
collision. As of 130 PM, scattered showers and storms have formed
along the sea breeze across the Treasure coast as well as additional
storms moving across Lake county for the west coast of Florida.

The environment supports storms today, with plenty of instability
(MUCAPE 1700-2300 J/kg), ample buoyancy (lifted index of -4 to -6),
and adequate downdraft potential (DCAPE 700-900 J/kg). Main storm
hazards will be frequent lightning, gusty winds of 45-55 mph, and
heavy rainfall of 1-3", which may lead to minor localized flooding
in urban and poor drainage areas. Any lingering activity will
diminish shortly after sundown, with activity across the Atlantic
waters continuing through the overnight hours. Temperatures will be
near to slightly above normal, with afternoon highs in the low to
mid 90s with peak heat indices of 100-165F. Overnight lows will be
in the low to mid 70s.

Saturday-Thursday... Upper level high pressure over the Atlantic and
the SW US will merge over the weekend and remain over the southern
US/Gulf/Atlantic into early next week. At the surface, high pressure
over the Atlantic will continue to shift northward towards the
Carolinas into early next week. A frontal boundary will slide
southward into the Deep South/Northern Florida this weekend before
stalling, eventually becoming diffuse by early next week. Locally,
winds will shift onshore (easterly) this weekend and remain through
at least mid next week as the surface high pressure moves northward
of Florida. Moisture across the local area will remain near to above
normal, with PW values of 1.8-2.1". Daily afternoon showers and
lightning storms are forecast to continue, with scattered storms
forming each day along the advancing east coast sea breeze, with
additional showers and storms forming across the interior. Highest
coverage of storms will be across the interior, where the sea breeze
collision is forecast to occur each evening, generally around
Orlando westward. Storm hazards will be frequent lightning, gusty
winds, and locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures will remain
seasonably hot and humid with with peak heat indices of 100-106,
with up to 108 possible in spots next week. Overnight lows will
continue to be warm and muggy.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Today-Tuesdasy... Generally favorable boating conditions expected.
Atlantic high pressure will slowly shift northward, reaching the
local waters today and moving north of the area by the weekend and
remaining into early next week. Light south to southwest flow will
persist through Friday, with winds becoming onshore (east to
southeast) and increasing to around 12 KT each afternoon with the
formation of the east coast sea breeze. Winds will then shift
onshore into the weekend as the high pressure moves north of the
area. Seas 1-2ft before increasing to 2-3ft this weekend and into.
early next week. A few offshore-moving storms with sudden strong
wind gusts remain possible through today. Scattered onshore showers
and storms will then be possible this weekend and into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

SHRA/TSRA ongoing already early this afternoon, with convection
developing along the sea breeze near the Treasure Coast and an
earlier outflow boundary west of I-4. Expect showers and storms to
increase through around 20Z, as these boundaries collide,
generally along the St Johns River. VCTS may linger through around
2Z from MLB northward along the coast, before drier conditions
prevail, as storm propagation becomes erratic due to slow storm
motions. Gusty winds to 35-40 kts will be possible with any
storms. Otherwise winds around 10 kts or less.

Light SE flow prevails overnight, increasing after around 15Z
Saturday. Additional summertime showers and storms are expected
Saturday afternoon, generally after 18-20Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  90  77  89 /  30  30  50  60
MCO  76  94  77  92 /  40  50  30  70
MLB  78  90  78  90 /  20  40  60  70
VRB  76  90  77  90 /  30  50  60  70
LEE  76  93  76  91 /  30  60  20  70
SFB  75  93  76  91 /  40  50  30  70
ORL  76  93  77  92 /  40  50  30  70
FPR  76  90  77  90 /  20  50  60  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Wishard