784
FXUS62 KMLB 091125
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
625 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

- A Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather exists across portions
  of east central Florida today. Primary storm threats include
  strong wind gusts, lightning strikes, and hail.

- Below normal temperatures with wind chill values in the mid 20s
  to mid 30s are forecast across east central Florida early this
  week behind a strong cold front.

- Deteriorating boating conditions are anticipated behind the cold
  front as northerly winds increase and seas build. A Small Craft
  Advisory begins early Monday morning across the local waters.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Today-Tonight...Deep troughing in the mid levels strengthens
across the central U.S. today, helping to push a strong cold front
closer to Florida. Locally, a weak surface ridge axis pushes
southward across the peninsula as the cold front begins its
gradual approach, with light southwesterly flow persisting. A
moist, warm air mass is forecast to persist across east central
Florida today, with PWATs reaching 1.6 to 1.7" and afternoon
temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s areawide. The
combination of the moisture and the warm environment will support
not only scattered shower development, but also isolated to
scattered storm development across east central Florida out ahead
of the cold front today.

The best chances for showers and storms are focused across
northern portions of the forecast area, specifically from the
greater Orlando area towards Cape Canaveral and areas northward.
Modest instability, steep low-level lapse rates and increasing mid
level flow will support storm development, with DCAPE values
exceeding 700 J/kg across much of east central Florida. These
values, along with the linear southwest shear, primarily support
wind gusts with the strongest storms that manage to develop.
Additionally, modeled soundings indicate 500 mb temperatures of
-10C and less across the area, which could support a hail threat
within the most robust storm development, though confidence in
this does remain low. A Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather has
been highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center, particularly
from Indian River County to Osceola County and areas northward.
Primary storm threats based on the environment will be wind gusts
of 40 to 60 mph, frequent lightning strikes, and hail up to 1".
Activity is forecast to move offshore and diminish into the
overnight hours, with the cold front approaching the area late
tonight. Isolated shower development immediately along the front
cannot be ruled out, with a 20-30% chance of showers persisting
into the overnight hours. The cold front begins bringing cooler
temperatures across the north, with lows in the mid to upper 50s
north of the I-4 corridor and in the 60s southward.

Monday-Tuesday...The cold front is forecast to continue southward
across the Florida peninsula early on Monday, with light shower
development along and immediately ahead of the front possible.
High pressure begins to build across the southeastern U.S. behind
the front, slowly extending southeastward towards the Florida
peninsula Monday afternoon. A strong pressure gradient in the wake
of the front will cause increasing northerly winds on Monday,
with sustained winds of 10 to 15 mph and gusts to 30 mph possible.
These northerly winds will also help drier, cooler air move
towards the area, with PWATs of less than 0.4" across east central
Florida supporting near-zero rain chances as the air mass settles
across east central Florida. Winds are forecast to remain
elevated through the overnight hours and into Tuesday, and rain
chances continue to remain near-zero.

The passage of this cold front is forecast to lead to some of the
coldest temperatures of the season so far Monday and Tuesday.
While highs in the 60s to 70s on Monday fall into the mid 50s to
mid 60s on Tuesday, the main concern is for the overnight
temperatures. Lows Monday night into Tuesday morning are forecast
to fall into the 30s, with the coldest temperatures focused near
and north of the I-4 corridor as well as rural portions of Osceola
and Okeechobee County. As mentioned, winds are forecast to remain
breezy to windy through the overnight hours, which will cause
wind chill values to fall into the 20s across a majority of east
central Florida. The need for a Cold Weather Advisory will
continue to be monitored and evaluated. Tuesday night into early
Wednesday, temperatures are forecast to remain in the mid to upper
30s near and north of the I-4 corridor and in the 40s southward.
Winds diminish slightly into Tuesday night, but wind chill values
are still forecast to fall into the 30s across most of east
central Florida.

At the beaches, increasing seas across the local Atlantic waters
will increase the risk for rip currents, especially on Tuesday.
Rough surf will likely also be present, and entering the ocean
will be strongly discouraged.

Wednesday-Saturday...Surface high pressure will continue to build
across the Florida peninsula through the extended period, with
dry conditions forecast locally. Winds become lighter as the
pressure gradient weakens, with northerly winds veering to out of
the northeast each afternoon. The Sunshine State lives up to its
name in the extended forecast, with sunny skies anticipated across
east central Florida. This will help temperatures gradually warm
through the period, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s on
Wednesday reaching the mid 70s to low 80s through the remainder of
the week. Lows follow a similar warming trend, starting in the
40s to mid 50s Wednesday night and increasing into the 50s and
even 60s along the coast late this week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Generally good boating conditions are forecast across the local
Atlantic waters today, with south to southwest winds around 10
knots and seas of 2 to 3 feet. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms will be possible out ahead of an approaching cold front.
Any storms that develop may be capable of producing wind gusts in
excess of 34 knots and frequent lightning strikes. Small hail also
cannot be ruled out, but confidence in this is low. The cold
front is forecast to move across the local Atlantic waters late
tonight into early Monday, with additional shower and storm
development along the front possible. Behind the front, dry
weather and rapidly deteriorating boating conditions are forecast
across the local Atlantic waters. Increasing northerly winds are
forecast on Monday, with wind speeds reaching 20 to 30 knots. Wind
gusts to around 35 knots will be possible. Seas respond by
building to 6 to 12 feet, with the highest seas focused across the
Gulf Stream waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for
the local Atlantic waters, starting across the Volusia and
offshore Brevard waters after 1 AM on Monday and expanding to
include the nearshore Brevard and Treasure Coast waters after 7 AM
on Monday. Winds and seas are forecast to slowly diminish late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Dry and generally favorable
boating conditions return by Wednesday afternoon as high pressure
settles across the Florida peninsula and local Atlantic waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 625 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Primary early morning concern continues to be the fog/stratus
potential across the I-4 corridor. Continue to handle with
prevailing & TEMPOs as applicable and will monitor for additional
MVFR/IFR VSBYs/CIGs concerns into mid-morning as necessary. Light
SW winds continue with mainly VFR by mid-late morning. Could see
some morning ISOLD convective activity near KLEE, otherwise mainly
afternoon-early evening SCT shra/tsra potential with movement SW
to NE. Low potential for gusty winds exceeding 35 kts. Strong cold
front sweeps across the area overnight into early Mon morning.
Winds become NWRLY and will increase 10-15 kts with passage and
some higher gusts ahead of sunrise.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

A dry air mass is forecast to settle across east central Florida
behind the passage of a strong cold front Sunday night into early
Monday. Minimum RH values are forecast to fall to 35 to 45% on
Monday and 25 to 45% on Tuesday, with the lowest values focused
across the interior. Additionally, a tight pressure gradient
behind the front will lead to strong northerly winds, with wind
speeds of 10 to 15 mph and gusts to 30 mph possible. Eyes remain
on Tuesday relative to fire weather, which is when there are the
best chances for meeting Red Flag criteria. The forecast will
continue to be monitored relative to the need for any sort of
product issuance. Conditions improve into Wednesday as winds
become lighter, but sensitive minimum RH values are still
anticipated through much of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  57  65  36 /  40  30   0   0
MCO  84  60  67  38 /  40  20   0   0
MLB  85  63  72  40 /  30  20   0   0
VRB  86  65  74  42 /  20  20   0   0
LEE  82  56  63  34 /  50  20   0   0
SFB  83  59  66  35 /  50  30   0   0
ORL  83  60  65  37 /  50  20   0   0
FPR  86  66  75  41 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ550-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ552-555-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Sedlock