582
FXUS62 KMLB 291850
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
250 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

- An active pattern will persist across east central Florida this
  weekend into next week as onshore flow pushes the east coast sea
  breeze inland. Highest coverage of storms will be across the
  interior with the sea breeze collision each afternoon. Some
  storms may be strong.

-Main storm hazards today will be gusty winds up to 55 mph,
 frequent to excessive lightning, and locally heavy rainfall,
 which may lead to localized flooding in urban or poor drainage
 areas.

- Warm and muggy conditions persist across east central Florida
  with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and peak heat indices
  exceeding 100F. Be sure to take frequent breaks in the shade or
  air conditioning if spending a lot of time outdoors to avoid
  the development of heat- related illness.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Today-Tonight... Upper level high pressure over the Atlantic and the
SW US will merge over the southern US and the Gulf today, as a
trough across the eastern US, extending down across north Florida,
continues to weaken. At the surface, high pressure over the Atlantic
will continue to shift northward, moving north of the Florida
peninsula as a quasi- stationary boundary draped across the
southeastern US weakens and washes out overnight. Locally, winds
will shift easterly today, both at the surface and gradually aloft,
as that high pressure axis lifts northward. The east coast sea
breeze is forecast to form this afternoon, with the onshore flow
aiding the sea breeze to push farther inland through this afternoon.
Moisture across the local area will remain above normal, with PW
values of 1.8-2.2". This will support scattered to numerous showers
and storms this afternoon. Scattered storms have already formed and
pushed onshore across the south, with some showers and storms
forming around the I-95 corridor this afternoon. Local guidance
continues to show additional isolated to scattered showers and
storms forming along the sea breeze, with coverage anticipated to
increase as the sea breeze pushes inland. Highest coverage of
storms will occur across the interior, mainly across Lake and
western Orange and Osceola counties, in association with the sea
breeze collision late this afternoon and into this evening.

The environment supports storms this afternoon, with plenty of
instability (MUCAPE 1700-2500 J/kg), ample buoyancy (lifted index
of -6 to -8), and adequate downdraft potential (DCAPE 700-1000
J/kg). Main storm hazards will be frequent to excessive lightning,
gusty winds of 45-55 mph, and heavy rainfall of 1-3", which may
lead to minor localized flooding in urban and poor drainage areas.
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has outlined all of east
central Florida into a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive
Rainfall. Any lingering activity will diminish shortly after
sundown, with activity across the Atlantic waters continuing
through the overnight hours. Some of this activity may push
onshore through the night. Temperatures will be near to slightly
above normal, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s
along the coast, and low to mid 90s across the interior. These
temperatures coupled with humidity will produce peak heat indices
of 100-107F, which remains below Heat Advisory criteria.
Conditions tonight will remain warm and muggy with overnight lows
in the low to mid 70s.

At the beaches, a moderate risk of rip currents is forecast due to a
developing long-period swell and the onshore flow. Always swim near
a lifeguard and never enter the ocean alone. Heed the advice of
local beach safety officials and posted flags.

Sunday-Friday... Upper level high pressure over the southern US will
slowly shift eastward through the time period. At the surface, broad
high pressure will remain in place, with the ridge axis staying
north of the Florida peninsula. At the surface, high pressure over
the Atlantic will remain in place, with the ridge axis staying north
of the Florida peninsula. Locally, deep easterly flow will prevail,
with speeds generally around 10 mph. this will support the
development and farther inland progression of the east coast sea
breeze each afternoon. Moisture across the local area will remain
near to above normal, with PW values of 1.8-2.1". Daily afternoon
showers and lightning storms are forecast to continue, with
scattered storms forming each day along the advancing east coast sea
breeze, with additional showers and storms forming across the
interior. Highest coverage of storms will be across the interior,
where the sea breeze collision is forecast to occur each evening,
generally around Orlando westward. Storm hazards will be frequent
lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. Shower and
lightning storm activity will diminish into the overnight hours,
however, scattered showers and storms will continue across the
Atlantic waters each night. Some of this activity may push onshore
along the coast in the easterly flow through the night and into
the morning hours each day.

Temperatures will remain seasonably hot and humid with highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast and low to mid 90s across
the interior. These temperatures coupled with high humidity will
produce heat indices of 100-106, with up to 108 possible in spots
next week. A Heat Advisory may be needed for some parts of east
central Florida next week. Be sure to stay adequately hydrated if
spending extended periods of time outdoors and also take breaks in
the shade or in air conditioning to help prevent the development
of heat-related illness. Overnight lows will continue to be warm
and muggy with lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Today-Wednesday... Generally favorable boating conditions expected.
Atlantic high pressure will slowly shift northward, moving north
of the Florida peninsula today and remaining north of the local
area next week. This will result in winds becoming easterly and
persisting through next week. Wind speeds are forecast to
generally remain between 5 to 10 knots through the period. Seas
2-3ft will build up to 4 ft, highest across the offshore waters,
into mid next week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will
be possible across the Atlantic each day, with activity moving
onshore (towards the peninsula). Main storm hazards will be
lightning, gusty winds in excess of 30 knots, heavy downpours, and
locally higher seas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions prevailing outside of convection. An area of SHRA
with embedded TSRA is moving northward along the Treasure Coast as
of around 17Z. CAMs suggest this activity will move northward
towards VRB before pushing inland around 20-21Z. Elsewhere,
convection is beginning to develop along the east coast sea
breeze, which has already moved west of I-95. Expect additional
showers and storms to focus along this boundary, quickly moving to
the western half of the peninsula through the afternoon. Drier
conditions are forecast to develop by around 23Z. However,
additional showers will be possible along the coast from TIX
southward after 6Z, possibly lingering through much of the
morning. E/SE flow prevails at around 10 kts today, becoming light
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  89  77  89 /  30  50  30  60
MCO  76  92  76  92 /  20  70  20  70
MLB  78  90  78  90 /  40  50  30  70
VRB  77  90  77  90 /  40  50  50  70
LEE  76  91  76  91 /  30  70  20  70
SFB  76  92  76  91 /  30  60  30  70
ORL  77  92  77  91 /  30  70  20  70
FPR  77  90  77  90 /  40  50  50  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Wishard