403
FXUS62 KMLB 280520
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
120 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 755 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

- Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for coastal portions of
  east-central Florida as Tropical Depression Nine organizes over
  the Bahamas, then moves parallel to the Florida coast late
  Sunday through Monday

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions begin Sunday evening,
  continuing through at least midweek, as incoming long-period
  swells and persistent north to northeast winds lead to life-
  threatening rip currents and beach erosion

- Rounds of scattered showers to increase as T.D. Nine makes its
  closest approach Sunday night into Monday; locally heavy
  rainfall is possible along the immediate coast

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Now-Tonight...A surface front continues to slowly approach the
area this afternoon as Tropical Depression Nine slowly organizes
near and just south of the Bahamas. Locally, cloud cover along and
north of Interstate 4 has kept debris showers ongoing into the
early afternoon, while sufficient instability has sparked showers
and scattered storms along the Treasure Coast. Apparent on both
RAP and satellite analysis is an area of weak subsidence that
stretches across the central portion of our area. Coverage of
showers and storms will likely remain isolated to scattered
through the evening, with a particular focus from the
Cape/Melbourne southward. Overnight, guidance maintains showers
chances along the immediate coast, especially Cape Canaveral to
the Treasure Coast. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible in
persistent bands, if they were to setup in these areas. Farther
inland, predominantly drier conditions are forecast as
temperatures settle into the mid 70s.

Sunday-Monday...Our attention turns toward Tropical Depression
Nine tomorrow into early next week, as the current forecast track
takes it northward from the Bahamas, parallel to the east-central
Florida coast. On Sunday morning, showers and even a few rumbles
of thunder could be ongoing from Cape Canaveral southward, as the
far outer influence of T.D. Nine interact with a stalled boundary
over central Florida. Clouds will be on the increase through the
day Sunday as deeper moisture begins to spread northwestward.
Beach conditions are forecast to deteriorate Sunday afternoon,
then more rapidly Sunday night into early Monday, as the tropical
system becomes more organized on its way northward. A high risk of
rip currents is in place for area beaches, and breaking waves of
6 to 10 feet, combined with long-period swells, will create
dangerous surf zone conditions. It is highly advised to remain out
of the water! Additionally, long-duration beach erosion,
especially Cape Canaveral northward, is anticipated beginning
Monday morning and continuing for several more days.

Breezy to gusty northeast winds unfold during the day Sunday with
windier conditions forecast on Monday as the center of T.D. Nine
passes by to our east. Winds will veer north-northwesterly as the
center moves north of the local Atlantic waters later on Monday,
allowing for a strong, southward-flowing longshore current to
develop at the beaches. Eventually, winds do turn offshore Tuesday
morning but remain breezy to gusty. As of the 11 AM advisory, the
east-central Florida coast has a 20-30% chance of experiencing
tropical-storm-force winds on Monday. Rainfall amounts are in
question, depending on how close the system passes to our coast.
However, accumulated amounts between now and Tuesday morning could
approach 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts of 5 inches
along the barrier islands. Residents and visitors should keep up-
to-date with the latest weather and hazards information at
hurricanes.gov and weather.gov/melbourne, as slight changes in the
storm`s track will have implications on realized impacts
(especially at the immediate coast).

Tuesday-Friday (modified previous)...As T.D. Nine moves farther
away from Florida, a broad mid-level trough remains situated
across the southeastern U.S. through the end of the forecast
period. Drier air lingers in the wake of T.D. Nine, resulting in
lower rain chances through next week (20-50%). Storms are less
likely Tuesday and Wednesday but re-enter the realm of possibility
from Thursday onward. A cooling trend is also forecast through
the period, with highs on Tuesday in the upper 80s to low 90s
falling into the low to mid 80s later in the week. Overnight lows
will hover in the low to mid 70s, perhaps reaching the upper 60s
in a few spots.

Despite the departure of T.D. Nine, there will likely still be
lingering coastal and marine impacts locally. Persistent
northeasterly to easterly winds will make it hard for seas to
subside, with additional long-period swells traveling toward the
coast from Major Hurricane Humberto through next week. Seas
remain elevated around 12+ feet across the offshore waters, with
breaking waves along the coast of at least 5 to 8 feet. A high
risk of rip currents through the extended period will be likely,
especially if the forecasted wave heights continue to stay
consistent. Residents and visitors will need to continue to
monitor coastal and marine impacts even after T.D. Nine departs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Through Tonight...2 to 4 foot seas and 8-14 kt easterly winds will
last from this evening into tonight as moisture gradually
increases over the local Atlantic. Scattered showers and embedded
storms are forecast, especially over the Gulf Stream, as a front
stalls across the northern waters.

Boating conditions worsen on Sunday as Tropical Depression Nine
organizes and moves northward, eventually paralleling the east
central Florida coast on Monday. Northeast winds on Sunday
increase to 15 to 25 knots, becoming northerly on Monday, 25 to
35 knots. Tropical-storm-force winds are likely over the offshore
waters and at least a portion of the nearshore waters Monday as
T.D. Nine makes its closest pass to the area. Seas quickly respond
by climbing to 7-11 ft (nearshore) and 8-15 ft (offshore) by
daybreak Monday morning. These building seas continue north and
westward in time as T.D. Nine progresses northward, forecast to
strengthen to a Tropical Storm. High coverage of showers and
a few embedded storms is anticipated, especially closer to the
system`s center.

Poor to dangerous boating conditions are anticipated to persist
across the local waters through much of next week. Seas will be
slow to subside behind T.D. Nine for two reasons; continued
northeast to east winds, as well as long period swells
approaching the local waters from distant Major Hurricane
Humberto. Seas of 8-12+ feet are forecast to persist (highest
offshore), along with wind speeds of at least 15 to 20 knots.
Slightly lower coverage of showers and storms is anticipated mid
week, though activity is still likely to remain scattered across
the local waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Light and variable to calm winds continue through the early
morning hours at all terminals, with VCSH possible from MLB
southward. Winds pick up out of the NE after 14Z, becoming gusty
after 19Z. Wind gusts up to 25 knots will be possible at times.
Outer rain bands from Tropical Depression Nine are forecast to
gradually begin moving onshore tomorrow, with VCSH expanding to
include MCO, ISM, and SFB, as well as TIX and DAB after 14Z and
LEE after 19Z. Current guidance shows ongoing VCSH conditions
through the overnight hours, so maintain at least a mention of
VCSH at all terminals beyond 00Z. TEMPOs for SHRA and VCTS may be
needed at some point , but not confident enough on timing to add
them in with this package. Will continue to monitor for the
following package and add in if there is higher confidence in
timing of activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  75  84  73 /  70  60  70  50
MCO  89  75  86  74 /  60  30  50  20
MLB  86  76  86  74 /  70  60  60  40
VRB  87  75  86  74 /  70  60  60  30
LEE  89  73  86  73 /  50  30  40  20
SFB  88  75  86  74 /  60  40  60  30
ORL  89  75  86  74 /  60  40  50  20
FPR  86  75  86  73 /  70  60  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Watch for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Tollefsen