723
FXUS62 KMLB 201812
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
212 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

- Elevated rain and storm chances today, especially west of
  Interstate 95; gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally
  heavy rain are possible with the most organized activity.

- Hot, muggy conditions this weekend into next week with highs in
  the low to mid 90s and heat indices reaching the low to mid
  100s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Currently...A weakly unstable airmass from a trough of higher
moisture (PWATS 1.9-2.1") and residual energy aloft has helped get
an early start to showers and lightning storms along and north of
the I-4 corridor this morning and early afternoon. Individual
cells have been nearly stationary, as development propagates to
the east-southeast, while producing frequent cloud to ground
lightning, gusty winds, and torrential downpours. So far the east
coast sea breeze south of this activity has been largely quiet due
to drier air to the south.

Rest of Today-Tonight...Further destabilization from daytime
heating will gradually increase coverage and strength of showers
and lightning storms, with the highest coverage of storms and
heavy showers along the sea breeze collision across the interior.
Depending on how much opportunity there is for the environment to
recover (destabilize again), some locations in and near the
Orlando Metro Area may see a couple rounds of storms between the
early activity the later sea breeze collision. Lower chances
across the southern coastal counties due to less moisture, with
the majority of showers and storms well inland. Storms will be
capable of gusty winds to 50 mph, with a very low (less than 2%)
chance for locally damaging gusts to around 60 mph, frequent cloud
to ground lightning, and torrential downpours. Some storms will
be nearly stationary due to very weak steering flow, which could
lead to locally high rainfall amounts and minor flooding,
especially along the sea breeze collision later this afternoon.

Saturday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Temperatures
will be the big story this weekend with not a lot of change from
the upper 80s to mid 90s we have been experiencing. The biggest
difference looks to be slightly lower rain chances overall, which
decreases cloud cover and allows for greater surface heating.
500mb ridging begins to build back in over the eastern CONUS,
especially on Sunday, with central Florida situated on the
southern bound of the pressure ridge. Onshore flow takes hold as a
result, leading to breezy (at times) easterly winds each
afternoon, especially along the coast. NBE guidance is indicating
wind gusts in the 20-25 mph range Sunday afternoon, likely in
association with the passage of the faster-paced, westward-moving
sea breeze. Despite the breeze, heat index values will make it
feel like it is in the upper 90s to low 100s both days. Any break
from the heat in the form of a shower or storm is going to be
brief and isolated in nature. The highest (50%) rain chances each
day will focus along and west of a line from Sanford/Orlando to
Lake Okeechobee, with lower chances near the coast. The persistent
onshore flow will favor sea breeze collisions on the west coast
of the state this weekend, hence the better opportunity for rain
across the interior. Overnight lows settle into the mid to upper
70s.

Monday-Thursday...(Modified Previous Discussion) While humidity
may back off a bit by the middle of the week, temperatures will
not. Even warmer high temperatures are forecast by Wednesday and
Thursday, pushing locations west of I-95 well into the mid 90s.
Coastal locations will top out a few degrees lower (low 90s),
thanks to the persistent onshore flow and east coast sea breeze.
Any showers and storms that develop in the drier conditions will
progress quickly westward with the east coast sea breeze, again
favoring the west FL coast for any additional storm development.
Wind gusts of 20-25 mph are probable each afternoon, especially at
the coast, where occasional gusts could peak around 30 mph. With
a prolonged stretch of above normal temperatures forecast, plus
warm, muggy nighttime conditions, make sure to stay cool,
hydrated, and check on neighbors and loved ones who may be more
susceptible to heat impacts. And, never leave pets or children
behind in hot vehicles! For more information on heat safety, visit
weather.gov/safety/heat.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Mostly favorable boating conditions are forecast this weekend into
next week. Winds shift SE Saturday then to the E from Sunday into
next week as high pressure builds north of the local waters. A
gentle to moderate breeze is forecast to develop with the sea
breeze each afternoon and evening with gusts reaching ~15 kt (up
to 20 kt on the Intracoastal). Isolated shower and storm chances
remain, though higher chances will remain well inland over the FL
Peninsula. Seas stay 1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Another early start to SHRA/TSRA sweeping across the northern
terminals, prompting AMDs to adjust TEMPO timing. There is
potential for another round of SHRA/TSRA at these terminals along
the sea breeze collision later this afternoon, however, low
confidence in timing and location due to outflow from current
storms disrupting the boundaries and environment. Increasing
chances for SHRA/TSRA to impact KTIX-KMLB between 18Z-22Z, but at
the moment trends suggest activity will remain west of KVRB-KSUA.
Gradual decrease in SHRA/TSRA after 22Z, with mostly quiet
conditions after 00Z. Slightly drier air and more southeasterly
flow Saturday favor lower rain chances, and shorter impacts from
what does develop for ECFL terminals. Winds shift easterly at
10-15 kts, with gusts to around 20 kts behind the sea breeze.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  90  74  89 /  20  20  10  40
MCO  74  92  75  92 /  20  40  10  50
MLB  76  88  77  88 /  10  20  10  50
VRB  74  89  75  89 /  10  30  20  50
LEE  74  93  75  92 /  30  40  10  50
SFB  74  93  75  91 /  20  30  10  40
ORL  74  92  75  91 /  20  40  10  50
FPR  73  89  75  89 /  10  30  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Haley