265
FXUS62 KMLB 022320
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
620 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 320 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

- Isolated showers through this evening Treasure coast counties,
  otherwise prospect for measurable rain looks quite low elsewhere
  tonight/Monday.

- Increasing North then Northeast winds Monday and Tuesday will
  produce deteriorating boating conditions.

- Warming trend mid to late week with isolated to scattered
  showers Friday mainly south of Orlando.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Thru Mon...Cut-off upper low over the southern Appalachians this
afternoon will rotate eastward and across GA/Carolinas tonight
while weakening/filling. Large scale ascent increases through
tonight ahead of this upper feature resulting in increasing
cloudiness. In the low levels, a weak low pressure will develop
off the southeast U.S. coast that will drag a weak cold front
through the region early Monday. Cannot rule out some sprinkles
along/ahead of the front but prospect for measurable rain looks
very low across most of the area. The best chance will be across
southern sections (Martin/St Lucie) this evening where isolated
showers may percolate up from south FL ahead of the front.

The front will push south of the area Mon morning with NW to N
wind flow. Slightly cooler across the north with highs in the mid
70s but reaching the low 80s across the south. Min relative
humidity values will fall to 35-40 percent over the north interior
with wind speeds 10-15 mph.

Tue-Sun...12Z GFS/ECMWF show the southern piece of the upper
trough breaks off and meanders over the southern Gulf and weakens
through mid week. Eventually, this shortwave trough gets kicked
eastward late in the week across south FL and the Straits. This
should bring the next best chance for showers (20-30%) across
southern sections Fri. Breezy NE winds Tue (15-20 mph) will
produce rough surf and while onshore winds will persist into late
week, the wind speeds will decrease closer to 10-14 mph. Mostly
dry conditions should prevail, though have drawn a silent 10
percent PoP along the coast south of the Cape Wed-Thu for any
isolated onshore-moving showers off the Atlc.

Temperatures will gradually warm from the mid to upper 70s
Tuesday into the low 80s Wed-Fri with mid 80s interior next
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

A weak cool front will cross the waters tonight/early Monday
followed by increasing NW-N winds and building seas. Have raised
a Small Craft Advisory for the Volusia and offshore Brevard waters
starting at 10 am Monday, expanding to offshore Treasure coast
waters at 2 pm Monday. Included nearshore Volusia since winds will
be around 20 knots especially as they veer N/NE Mon night but
seas are not forecast to reach 7 ft there. On the other hand, over
the Gulf Stream, seas will build 7-8 ft Mon night/Tue. Caution
conditions (15-20 knots and up to 6 feet) should suffice for
nearshore Brevard and Treasure coast waters. Winds are forecast to
gradually decrease mid to late week out of the ENE as high
pressure settles south toward the area and weakens the pressure
gradient. Seas will respond by gradually subsiding from 4-5 feet
Wednesday, reaching 2-3 feet Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 616 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

VFR conds to continue thru the period. ENE/NE winds 5-10 kts
become light/variable this evening but will transition to WNW/NW
ahead of sunrise with approach/passage of weak front. VCSH remain
possible from VRB southward, continuing through the overnight
hours. NW winds on Mon veer N/NNE thru the day (post-frontal) with
speeds increasing after sunrise 10-15 kts with some higher gusts,
esp along the coast. Mainly dry conds anticipated behind the
front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  73  57  76 /  10  10   0   0
MCO  61  76  56  78 /  10  10   0   0
MLB  64  76  61  78 /  10  10   0  10
VRB  63  78  61  79 /  10  10   0  10
LEE  56  74  51  77 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  59  75  54  78 /  10  10   0   0
ORL  61  75  56  78 /  10  10   0   0
FPR  63  79  61  79 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ550-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Sedlock