


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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371 FXUS62 KMLB 151857 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 257 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through the weekend; entering the ocean is strongly discouraged - Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast across the local Atlantic waters this afternoon through Friday - A cold front is forecast to approach the area late this weekend into early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Current-Tonight... While mostly dry, the XMR 10Z sounding has shown a modest layer of moisture below 700mb. This has been enough to support light onshore-moving showers, reaching as far inland as the Orlando metro this afternoon. By sunset, the focus of light showers looks to remain south of Cape Canaveral, and have kept a 20 percent PoP along the southern coast through tonight. A weak surface boundary passes the local Atlantic waters through the evening as low pressure shifts eastward, well offshore the eastern seaboard. In response, a surge of locally higher north-northeast winds to around 20 mph are forecast along the Volusia coastline and adjacent local waters through this evening. Low temperatures fall into the low to mid 60s across the interior while onshore flow keeps coastal locations in the upper 60s and low 70s. Thursday-Friday... Mid-level ridging across the central U.S. gradually weakens as it moves into the southeast. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region will drift eastward, stretching southward across the eastern U.S. A dry airmass persists locally through the period, becoming reinforced as a dry surface boundary passes central Florida late Thursday and into Friday. Northeast winds increase Thursday with gusts up to 25 mph. Winds slacken slightly on Friday, still remaining gusty at times. Mesoscale models suggest onshore winds combined with generous moisture below 850mb could be supportive of a few showers along the coast Thursday evening/ night, and have included a 15-20% PoP for these areas. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are forecast. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s on Thursday fall a few degrees into Friday, more widely ranging the low 80s. Lows spreading the mid 60s across the interior and upper 60s/ low 70s along the coast are forecast to warm a few degrees as onshore flow increases. Saturday-Tuesday... Surface high pressure continues to stretch along the eastern seaboard late week before moving offshore Sunday. Moisture returns early next week as a cold front approaches from the west. Some uncertainty exists in how the frontal system will evolve further into the extended forecast period. A ECMWF solution pulls the front across central Florida on Monday while the GFS keeps the front north of the area. Regardless, dry conditions are forecast through the weekend with warming temperatures. Highs in the low to mid 80s Saturday mostly range the mid 80s by Sunday. Precip and temperatures become more uncertain into Monday and will be dependent on the evolution of the front. Relying on the NBM as a first guess, and keeping only an isolated mention of showers for Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast through Friday as northeast winds build seas into tonight. Small Craft Advisories spread the offshore Atlantic waters (20-60nm) from north to south through this evening as seas increase up to 7 ft. Otherwise, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution across the nearshore (0-20nm) waters for seas up to 6 ft. Seas gradually diminish into Friday night as winds slacken and veer east and eventually southeast. Seas build up to 6 ft across the Gulf Stream again by Sunday as a long period swell increases from the northeast. Mostly dry conditions are forecast outside of isolated onshore-moving showers through Thursday night. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 139 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Isolated light to moderate showers will continue to push onshore and inland across east central Florida this afternoon, mainly near to south of KMCO-KTIX. Brief tempo MVFR conditions possible with some of this activity, but mostly remaining VFR with cigs around 4-6kft. These isolated showers should shift southwest of KMCO/KISM/KTIX by 20-21Z, but may continue to push onshore from KMLB southward through tonight into Thursday morning. N/NE winds up to 10-13 knots at most sites this afternoon, but will remain breezy up to 14-16 knots with gusts up to 23 knots at KDAB. Winds diminish into tonight, with speeds falling to 5-7 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 67 82 67 80 / 10 0 10 0 MCO 66 85 67 83 / 10 0 0 0 MLB 70 82 70 80 / 20 10 20 0 VRB 70 83 70 81 / 20 10 20 0 LEE 63 84 64 83 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 66 84 66 83 / 10 0 10 0 ORL 66 84 67 83 / 10 0 0 0 FPR 69 83 70 81 / 20 10 20 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ572. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ575. && $$ DISCUSSION...Law AVIATION...Weitlich