904
FXUS62 KMLB 300653
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
253 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

- Prolonged, dangerous beach and marine conditions this week;
  life-threatening rip currents, high surf with breaking waves of
  6 to 10 feet, and minor to moderate beach erosion expected

- Breezy and gusty conditions through much of the week, with the
  highest gusts along the coast

- Periods of scattered showers into Wednesday; higher rain chances
  and the threat for locally heavy rainfall return late week into
  the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Today-Tonight...Prior to sunrise, Tropical Storm Imelda is located
offshore of the east coast of Florida, with gusty bands of showers
locally enhancing winds as they move onshore. However, winds have
fallen below Wind Advisory criteria overall, so the Advisory has
been cancelled just prior to 2 AM.

Imelda will move eastward, away from the local area, today and is
forecast to strengthen into a hurricane. Meanwhile, outer bands of
gusty showers are expected to continue to push onshore, with the
highest PoPs today (40-60%) along the coast, but especially from
around Cape Canaveral northward. Inland, PoPs are forecast around 20-
40%, as showers are expected to weaken as they move into the
interior. Overall accumulations should remain light, though totals
near 1" will be possible in any training heavier showers. Very dry
air above 600 mb and low CAPE will limit lightning chances (~20%) to
the coast, with a slightly more favorable environment over the
Atlantic waters. Rain chances are forecast to be limited to
generally the coastal counties overnight, as Imelda continues into
the Atlantic. PoPs 20-30% decreasing from the evening into the early
morning hours. Showers and northerly winds are forecast to keep
temperatures in the 80s this afternoon, with lows in the lower to
mid-70s.

Despite Imelda`s departure, breezy to windy conditions will persist
across the local area into this afternoon. Northerly winds of 10-20
mph are forecast, with up to 20-25 mph along the coast. The barrier
islands from near Cape Canaveral northward into the Volusia County
could approach sustained winds of 25 mph today. These winds are
borderline Wind Advisory criteria. However, have held off on a Wind
Advisory, as models suggest the spatial extent of the highest winds
will be limited to the immediate barrier islands themselves, rather
than the whole coastal zone. Also, winds have underperformed
somewhat over the last day or so, 925 mb winds are forecast to
remain around 25 kts, and lingering cloud cover should help limit
mixing. That being said, should the cloud cover be less than
currently forecast, stronger winds near 25 mph would be more likely
to mix down. Regardless, it looks to be another windy day along the
coast, with dangerous beach conditions due to a high risk of rip
currents and large breaking waves of 6-10 ft. A High Surf Advisory
remains in effect through the work week. Use caution, even on the
sand, never turn your back to the ocean, as larger waves can sweep
you off your feet. Do not enter the water.

Wednesday...A transition day for the middle of the work week, as
Imelda picks up speed towards Bermuda and a strong ridge begins to
build southward into the Great Lakes and Northeast from Canada.
While models previously suggested some fairly dry air would filter
into the area mid-week, PWATs now look to return to around 1.6-1.8"
by Wednesday afternoon, as winds veer northeasterly. Thus, while
PoPs will be generally below normal for much of the area, PoPs up to
40-50% are still forecast south and east of I-4, with 20-30%
elsewhere, supported by an upper level trough passing aloft. Poor
lapse rates and dry air above 700mb will continue to limit lightning
chances, though a few strikes cannot be ruled out. Northeast winds
are forecast to reduce to around 10-15 mph, but remain gusty,
especially along the coast, as highs persist in the 80s.

Overnight, building high pressure to the north will veer winds
easterly, advecting in moist air (PWATs around 2") by late Wednesday
night. Therefore, shower chances will continue through the overnight
hours, with PoPs 40-50% for coastal counties and 20-30% over the
interior.

Thursday-Monday...High pressure settles in north of the local area
through late week, then moves offshore late this weekend and into
early next week. Meanwhile, a series of shortwaves look to pass
through the Southeast US in the mid and upper levels. A tight
pressure gradient due to the ridge to the north will once again
produce breezy to gusty onshore flow. Easterly winds around 15-20
mph are forecast, with higher gusts along the coast in the
afternoons, each day into at least Saturday. Combined with
showers, these winds will help keep temperatures near to even
slightly below normal.

Models are in good agreement that higher coverage of showers
returns Thursday over southern portions of the area. Then, spreads
area- wide into the weekend, as deeper moisture (PWATs 2+" at
times) advects into east central Florida. PoPs 40-70% from
northwest to southeast Thursday become 60-70% across the forecast
area by Saturday. Poor lapse rates look to continue to limit the
lightning threat, though isolated to scattered strikes will remain
possible. Multiple rounds of showers, pushed onshore along breezy
easterly winds, will be capable of locally heavy rainfall, thanks
to ample available moisture. The threat for excessive rainfall
will be increased in any training showers, especially along the
coast in places that see multiple rounds over several days. This
will need to be monitored late week into the weekend.

Dangerous beach conditions are forecast to continue through at
least late week, if not into the weekend, due to continued breezy
and gusty winds, as well as incoming swells from distant Major
Hurricane Humberto.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Hazardous to dangerous boating conditions today will persist
through late week and into the weekend, even as Tropical Storm
Imelda moves away from the local waters. Northerly winds up to
20-25 kts will persist over the Atlantic through this afternoon.
Then, high pressure building well north of the local area will
maintain a tight enough pressure gradient for winds to persist
around 15-25 kts as they veer onshore through at least Saturday.
Seas 10-17 ft today will also be slow to subside, due to the
continued gusty winds and incoming swell from distant Major
Hurricane Humberto. Seas are forecast to remain up to 8-10 ft into
this weekend. Small Craft Advisories are in effect and will likely
need to be extended past the current expiration time.

Gusty bands of showers, with a few embedded lightning strikes,
will continue to move onshore into tonight, as Imelda moves
farther into the Atlantic. Scattered showers will be possible
Wednesday, before coverage increases late week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

VCSH continues through the early morning hours as outer rain bands
from Tropical Storm Imelda move onshore. Breezy north to northwest
winds persist, with gusts up to 20 knots possible through the
overnight hours. Winds are forecast to increase through tomorrow,
with sustained winds up to 20 knots and gusts up to 30 knots
possible. VCSH continues through the period, ending around 03Z at
the interior terminals and beyond 06Z at the coastal terminals. No
mention of TEMPOs due to a lack of confidence in timing. By
tonight, winds become less breezy and diminish to 5 to 10 knots
generally out of the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  83  73  84  73 /  60  30  30  40
MCO  87  73  88  73 /  40  10  30  30
MLB  87  74  86  75 /  50  30  40  50
VRB  88  74  87  74 /  40  30  50  50
LEE  86  71  87  71 /  30  10  20  20
SFB  85  72  86  73 /  50  20  30  30
ORL  86  73  87  73 /  40  20  30  30
FPR  88  73  87  74 /  40  30  50  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Tollefsen