719
FXUS62 KMLB 201731
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1231 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 155 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

- Patchy fog is expected to form for the next few mornings with some
  locally dense fog possible.

- There is a Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents at
  Atlantic beaches.

- Warm and mostly dry weather over the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Today-Sat...Weak high pressure will remain in control of our local
weather. Light winds in vicinity of the low level ridge axis and
precip water values 1" or less will maintain warm and dry
conditions. A daily afternoon sea breeze will enhance the onshore
flow slightly along the coast, up to 10 mph.  There will be some
high (cirrus) clouds streaming E to SE across the area due to
moistening in the 250-300mb layer. Otherwise, only scraps of lower
level fair weather cumulus expected. Max temperatures will remain
above normal in the low 80s coast and low-mid 80s interior.
Conditions will be favorable for patchy fog each morning under
light winds, mostly clear skies and full recovery of RH.

Sun-Thu...Models are in agreement that a weak cold front pushes
through Sunday bringing a wind shift out of the north, little
cooling and no rain. The high pressure to the north will steadily
move east over the Atlc resulting in a quick veering of wind flow,
out of the southeast by Tue and south southeast Wed. This will
keep temperatures above normal in the low to mid 80s. Cannot rule
out isolated showers pushing onshore from the Atlc Tue-Wed but
most areas will remain dry. The next cold front is forecast to
approach around Thanksgiving Day but great uncertainty on how
quickly it approaches and where it initially stalls. At this
point, it is looking like a mild to warm Thanksgiving with some
small shower chances possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 155 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Favorable boating conditions are forecast through at least Saturday
as high pressure remains in place over the local Atlantic. Light and
variable winds turn onshore near the coast each afternoon up to 10
knots, enhanced by the local sea breeze circulation. A weak front
pushes through Sunday with NW flow veering N/NE. Winds veer E/NE Mon
around high pressure to the north. Seas 1-2 FT through Sat then up
to 3 FT in the Gulf Steam Sun-Mon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1223 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Afternoon LAV guidance lends increased confidence to FG conditions
overnight tonight into early Friday morning. Have included
prevailing MVFR VIS for all but the Treasure Coast terminals by
7-9Z, with TEMPOs for IFR through around 13Z. It`s possible LIFR
VIS will occur at times, especially along and north of the I-4
corridor. The Treasure Coast appears the least likely to see
significant impacts. However, have included a prevailing 6SM at
those terminals, given the threat for at least patchy FG/MIFG
across east central Florida. FG will need to be monitored with
future updates, as it is notoriously difficult to forecast. While
light winds and the presence of high pressure near the Florida
peninsula typically support FG, there was very little observed
early this morning. Regardless, light and generally easterly winds
look to prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  80  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  61  83  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  62  80  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  61  81  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  59  83  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  60  83  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  61  83  62  83 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  60  82  60  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Leahy