701
FXUS62 KMLB 120034
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
734 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 259 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

- A high risk of rip currents and rough surf persists at area
  beaches through again today, along with lingering poor boating
  conditions near inlets south of Sebastian Inlet.

- Small precip chances enter the picture Thursday-Saturday, though
  any amounts will be light. Higher chances return Sunday-Sunday
  night with the approach of a stronger low pressure system.

- Generally above normal temperatures continue this week and into
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Today-tonight... High pressure across the western Atlantic will
continue to slowly shift southward today as a frontal boundary
shifts southward across the Deep South towards the Florida
peninsula. Locally, westerly winds will prevail today with speeds of
8-12 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. A weak east coast sea breeze will
try to form late this afternoon and push onshore to about I-95,
mainly across the Treasure Coast. Drier air remains in place with
forecast PW values around 0.7-0.8" today, although the airmass is
beginning to moisten a little. Isolated light showers are moving
into northern Lake and Volusia Counties this afternoon. These
showers should move into the area over the next couple of hours
before dissipating or moving offshore. Otherwise, mostly dry
conditions expected tonight. There is a High risk of rip currents
once again at all area beaches today. Entering the chilly surf is
discouraged!

Temperatures today will remain above normal for this time of year.
Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 70s areawide. Overnight
lows will generally be in the low to mid 50s. Models are indicating
patchy dense fog will be possible late tonight into early Thursday
morning. The greatest potential for fog development will be mainly
from Lake Kissimmee to Daytona north and westward.

Thursday-Friday... High pressure will begin to shift eastward
(farther out to sea) while continuing to shift southward as the
aforementioned weak front across the Deep South moves into north
Florida Thursday. This front is then forecast to stall across north-
central Florida and become diffuse through Friday. Locally, moisture
will increase along and ahead of this boundary, with forecast PW
values of 0.9-1.1" both days. This will support rain chances
returning to the forecast, with trends increasing the potential
across the local area for both days. Models are indicating there is
a low to medium (20-30 percent)chance of showers area wide both
days. The greatest potential for rain on Thursday will be from
Brevard to Osceola counties northward to Lake and Seminole counties,
and the greatest potential on Friday will generally be along the
coast from Daytona Beach southward. Patchy fog will once again be
possible late Thursday night into Friday morning, mainly from a line
from Lake Okeechobee up towards I-95 in Brevard to Daytona Beach and
areas westward. Slight warming trend continues with temperatures
forecast to be above normal each day. Afternoon highs will generally
be in the upper 70s to low 80s across the interior, and low to mid
70s along the coast each day. Overnight lows will mainly be in the
50s each night.

Saturday-Tuesday... Upper level trough over Texas on Saturday will
steadily push eastward across the Deep South and over the Florida
peninsula through early next week. This will result in the next
frontal boundary moving across east central Florida late weekend
into early next week. There remains uncertainty with this frontal
system as models continue to disagree on timing of the front. The
GFS remains the slower solution with the front pushing through more
during the day on Monday, and the the ECM having the front push
through Sunday night into Monday. As of right now, leaning more
towards the ECM solution. High pressure will then build over the
Florida peninsula on Tuesday. Moisture ahead and along the front
will spread across east central Florida, resulting in rain chances
continuing through early next week.

Rain chances are on an upward trend for late week/early next week
with the frontal passage. There is a low to medium (20-30 percent
chance) of showers Saturday, with the highest rain chances occurring
along the coast, and a medium (30-60 percent) chance of rain
occurring areawide during the day on Sunday before increasing to 50-
70 percent areawide on Sunday night. Given the uncertainty of the
timing of the front, rain chances will linger through the day on
Monday, with 30-40 percent chance of rain areawide. These rain
chances on Monday may continue to go up if the frontal passage
trends slower. There is a low (20 percent) chance of lightning
storms Sunday night through Monday as instability increases from the
shortwave energy associated with the trough/front, as well as
daytime heating.

Breezy and gusty southwest winds ahead of the front on Sunday will
decrease and turn north/northwest behind the front on Monday.
Temperatures are forecast to be slightly above normal for this time
of year ahead of the front, with temperatures becoming more
seasonable behind the front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Today-Tonight... High pressure across the western Atlantic will
continue to slowly shift southward today as a frontal boundary
shifts southward across the Deep South towards the Florida
peninsula. South to southwest winds at 10-15 KT away from the coast,
increasing to 15-20 KT well offshore north of Sebastian Inlet
tonight. Small Craft should exercise caution in the offshore waters
of Brevard and Volusia tonight. Seas 2-4 ft. Persistent long
period swells (~11-13 sec) continue and small craft may need to
Exercise Caution for one more day near inlets during the outgoing
tide. Isolated showers will be possible this afternoon mainly
north of Cape Canaveral, with isolated to scattered showers from
Cape Canaveral northward tonight.

Thursday-Sunday... A frontal boundary will push southward across
north Florida and adjacent waters on Thursday, stalling and becoming
diffuse across central Florida through Saturday. The next cold front
will begin to approach the Florida peninsula during the day on
Sunday from the west. Models are in disagreement with exact timing
of the front. But for now have trended with the faster solution
which pushes the front through Sunday night into Monday morning.
There is a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of showers across
the local waters Thursday through Saturday with the stalled front
across the local waters. Rain chances increase on Sunday ahead of
the front to 30-60 percent, and 50-70 percent on Sunday night with
the frontal passage.

Breezy NW winds of 10-18 KT Thursday morning will becoming more N/NW
and decrease to 8-12 KT in the afternoon. Winds then shift NE/E
around 10 KT on Friday before continuing to veer E/SE and
increasing to 8-12KT on Saturday (veering more SSE/S and increasing
to around 15 KT Saturday night). On Sunday, winds veer S/SSW and
increase to 15-20 KT in the nearshore, and 20-25 KT in the offshore
waters. Seas 3-5 ft will subside to 2-4 ft Thursday afternoon and
continue through Saturday. Seas then begin to build on Sunday,
increasing to 3-5 ft by the afternoon, and up to 6 feet in the far
offshore waters Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 656 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions at all ECFL terminals through 06Z, then stratus
ahead of an approaching weak front begins to overrun much of the
area late tonight and lingering into the afternoon. Confidence is
increasing for prolonged IFR (50-70% chance) to LIFR (30-50%
chance) CIGS at all northern terminals, arriving at KLEE first as
early as 06Z, and reaching KMCO around 09Z. Chances are also
increasing for MVFR (30-70%) to IFR (20-50%) CIGs to spread into
the southern half of the area after 10Z. VIS should remain MVFR
or better, but could tank if CIGs drop to LIFR. Impacts are likely
to persist into mid to late morning, with gradual improvement
through the early afternoon. Decent model agreement LIFR-IFR CIGs
lift between 13Z-15Z, and MVFR conditions persist through 18Z.
Westerly winds 6 kts or less tonight generally shift northwest
5-10 kts in the late morning then northerly later in the
afternoon, but could ultimately become more VRB as the weak front
stalls over or just north of the area. ISO SHRA possible INVOF the
northern terminals in the late afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Southwest to west winds prevail today, generally around 10 mph with
gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. The airmass remains mostly dry,
with near critical Min RH values forecast this afternoon. Min RH
values are forecast to fall to around 35-40% across the interior
today. Moisture increases on Thursday with no min RH value concerns.
As a weak frontal boundary stalls across the local area on Friday,
some drier air starts to filter in to ECFL, dropping min RH values
to 40-50%. Winds veer onshore (E/SE) on Saturday with speeds a round
8-12 mph with gusts to around 20 mph. Smoke dispersion will become
Very Good to Excellent today, Fair to Generally Good on Thursday and
Friday, and Fair to generally good on Saturday. Patchy dense fog is
forecast late tonight into early Thursday morning and once again
Thursday night into Friday morning, mainly across the interior and
to I-95 in Brevard and Volusia Counties. Sensitive fire weather
conditions will continue into late week and the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  55  70  53  72 /  10  20  10  20
MCO  57  76  56  76 /   0  30  10  20
MLB  53  73  55  73 /   0  30  20  30
VRB  52  75  55  75 /   0  20  20  30
LEE  56  75  53  75 /  10  30  10  20
SFB  57  75  54  75 /  10  30  10  20
ORL  58  75  56  76 /   0  30  10  20
FPR  51  76  54  75 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Haley