162
FXUS62 KMLB 161756
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
156 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

- High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through the
  weekend; entering the ocean is strongly discouraged

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast across the
  local Atlantic waters through Friday night

- Isolated showers are forecast across the local waters and along
  the immediate coast through tonight with dry conditions
  forecast through this weekend and into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Current-Tonight... A weak surface boundary passes east central
Florida late today and into tonight as a "backdoor" cold front.
Isolated showers are forecast across the local waters this evening
and overnight, and a few may wander onshore at times. Otherwise,
mostly dry. Breezy northeast winds this afternoon fall to around 5-
10 mph tonight. Low temperatures are forecast to range the mid to
upper 60s across the interior with upper 60s to low 70s along the
coast.

Friday-Saturday... Surface high pressure stretches across the
eastern U.S., maintaining dry conditions locally. Breezy
northeast winds continue Friday with flow slackening and shifting
out of the east on Saturday. Cannot rule out a few stray onshore-
moving showers throughout the period, but expecting PoPs to remain
mostly dry. High temperatures mostly range the low 80s each day,
but some areas across the far interior may touch the mid 80s.
Cooler morning low temperatures arrive Saturday with values in the
low to mid 60s across the interior and mid to upper 60s along the
coast. Portions of northwest Volusia and northern Lake may even
fall into the upper 50s Saturday morning.

Don`t let pleasant weather fool you, hazards can still be present
even during blue sky days. Hazardous conditions at the beaches are
anticipated to continue, with a high risk of rip currents forecast
through late this week and into the weekend. Residents and visitors
are strongly discouraged from entering the ocean.

Sunday-Wednesday... High pressure is pushed offshore as the next
cold front moves into the eastern U.S. Limited moisture returns
locally late this weekend and into early next week. The forecast
remains mostly dry through the extended forecast as the front washes
out and slows south of the area. High pressure and dry air builds in
wake of the frontal boundary with a second front forecast to
approach the area again mid week. Have kept no mentionable rain
chances with this forecast package. Highs climb a few degrees above
normal across the interior through Tuesday, reaching the upper 80s
in most spots. More seasonable temperatures are forecast near and
east of I-95, spreading the mid 80s. Sunday will be the coolest
morning of the period, with lows in the low to mid 60s inland and
mid to upper 60s along the coast. Lows more widely range the mid to
upper 60s Monday and into mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Northeast winds around 15-20 kts will maintain poor to hazardous
seas through Friday. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the
offshore Atlantic waters (20-60 nm), expanding to the nearshore
Treasure Coast (0-20 nm) waters after 8PM for seas of 6-8 ft. Small
craft should exercise caution across nearshore Volusia and nearshore
Brevard (0-20 nm) for seas up to 6 ft through Friday. Winds veer
east around 10 kts into Saturday, further veering south-southeast on
Sunday. Seas of 4-5 ft become more favorable on Saturday before a
longer period swell briefly builds seas back to 6 ft across parts of
the Gulf Stream on Sunday. A cold front approaches the local waters
early next week, washing out as is passes the local waters. Rounds
of isolated showers will be possible in onshore flow through
Saturday. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions mostly forecast through the remainder of today and
into tonight. It will be mostly dry this afternoon, with isolated
onshore moving showers then possible into tonight. This activity may
be able to push far enough inland to reach the I-4 corridor, but for
now better potential for any showers will be along the coast and
have added VCSH for coastal TAF sites starting at 00Z. Drier air
then moves in by early Friday morning, which should put an end to
any additional shower development across the area.

NE winds 10-14 knots with gusts up to 18-22 knots forecast through
this afternoon, diminishing to 5-10 knots into tonight. NE winds
then pick up again by late morning, with speeds around 9-13 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  80  64  81 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  68  83  64  83 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  71  81  68  81 /  20   0   0   0
VRB  71  81  67  81 /  20   0   0   0
LEE  65  83  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  67  82  63  83 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  68  82  64  83 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  70  81  66  81 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Weitlich