413
FXUS62 KMLB 211127
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
727 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- The typical Florida summertime pattern will persist locally
  through this weekend and into next week with daily afternoon
  showers and storms forecast across east central Florida.

- Storm hazards today will include frequent lightning strikes,
  strong wind gusts of 50-55 mph, small hail, and heavy downpours
  leading to rainfall accumulations of 1-3".

- Heat remains a concern across east central Florida, though peak
  heat indices are anticipated to stay below advisory criteria.
  Regardless, residents and visitors to the area are encouraged to
  practice heat safety!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Today-Tonight...The mid-level low begins to weaken across
northern Florida today as troughing across the eastern US extends
southward towards it. At the surface, this will result in the
Atlantic high remaining well south of the area, with a quasi-
stationary boundary draped across the southeastern US slowly
drifting a bit southward. A plume of moisture will maintain itself
across Florida, with PWATs forecast to exceed 2" areawide. Light
southwest winds continue at the surface, with a bit more of a
southerly component aloft through this morning assisting with an
easier development and push inland of the east coast sea breeze
this afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are forecast, with
PoPs remaining between 30-50%. Some Saharan dust drifting across
the peninsula will maintain a pocket of drier air between 850-500
mb today along with cooler temperatures aloft (around -8C). This
combined with adequate daytime heating supporting plenty of
instability will favor scattered storm development, with storm
hazards include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55
mph, small hail, and heavy downpours resulting in 1-3" of rainfall
across the area. Marginally severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out
given the drier air aloft. Additionally, light steering flow will
increase the potential for erratic and slow storm motions, which
will mean there is a greater risk of minor, localized flooding in
some spots. Activity will generally push offshore across the local
Atlantic waters, with mostly dry conditions through the overnight
hours.

Heat persists across east central Florida, with highs in the low
to mid 90s. Peak heat indices are forecast to reach 102F to 107F,
remaining just below Heat Advisory criteria. However, the risk of
developing heat-related illness remains high across the area, so
residents and visitors alike are strongly encouraged to practice
heat safety today. Remain well-hydrated, take breaks in the shade
or an air conditioned building, and wear lightweight, lightly
colored clothing. Never leave children or pets unattended in
vehicles. Near normal temperatures overnight with lows in the mid
70s.

Saturday-Sunday...Mid-level troughing across the eastern US will
extend southward through this weekend, absorbing the mid-level
low. The surface Atlantic high will continue to remain south of
east central Florida, and the quasi-stationary boundary will
continue southward as the upper level support pushes it south. The
typical diurnal pattern will persist, with afternoon showers and
storms being driven by the development and interaction of the sea
breezes. PoPs remain in the 30-50% range each afternoon, with the
usual storm hazards all in play; lightning strikes, gusty winds,
and heavy downpours. Dry air aloft from the Saharan dust will
continue to increase the risk of strong to marginally severe wind
gusts, though most wind gusts should remain at or below 55 mph.
Additionally, minor, localized flooding will continue to be a
potential concern due to light steering flow aloft and cooler
temperatures around 500 mb will maintain the risk of small hail
development. Light offshore steering flow will result in activity
pushing off the coast and out across the local Atlantic waters
each evening, with mostly dry conditions through the overnight
hours across east central Florida.

Temperatures are forecast to remain near-normal through this
weekend, with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s. While
guidance continues to favor remaining below advisory criteria,
peak heat indices are still anticipated to reach the 102F-107F
range. If spending extended periods of time outdoors this weekend,
be sure to practice heat safety to avoid developing heat-related
illness.

Monday-Thursday...The mid-level troughing across the eastern US
lifts northeastward into next week, resulting in a lift northward
of the stalled boundary across the southeastern US. This will
allow the Atlantic high to lift northward, with the ridge axis
forecast to establish itself across central Florida once again.
While the pattern itself will change very minimally from the
typical afternoon showers and storms, there will be a change in
wind direction from a predominantly offshore component to more of
a southerly component. This has implications on how far inland the
east coast sea breeze will be able to push as well as where the
highest rain and storm chances will be focused (more across the
interior rather than the east coast). It is worth noting that
guidance has trended drier on Monday due to some Saharan air
potentially drifting towards the peninsula resulting in PoPs
falling to 20-30%, but there remains some uncertainty with this
still. Overall, the typical summertime pattern is forecast to
persist, with lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours all
possible with activity. Temperatures are anticipated to remain
near-normal through next week, with peak heat indices likely
remaining just below Heat Advisory criteria. Regardless, heat will
continue to be a concern across east central Florida, so
residents and visitors are encouraged to think ahead about heat
safety and preventing heat-related illness.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to persist
across the local Atlantic waters through this weekend and into
early next week. The Atlantic ridge axis is forecast to remain
south of the local waters through Sunday, with west to southwest
winds prevailing at 10 to 15 knots. By Monday and into the middle
of the week, the ridge axis lifts northward, with winds becoming
more southerly. Winds will additionally be influenced by the
development of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon, with
winds becoming more south to southeasterly. Seas of 1 to 3 feet
persist, highest across the offshore waters. Scattered offshore-
moving showers and storms will be possible each afternoon into the
overnight hours across the local waters. Hazards will include
frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 30 knots,
small hail, heavy downpours, and locally higher seas within
vicinity of the strongest storms. While coverage will generally
trend downward through the overnight period, isolated shower and
storm development across the Gulf Stream waters cannot be ruled
out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 727 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Have had some brief MVFR conditions at a couple terminals early
this morning due to haze and/or CIGs. This will quickly lift and
clear this morning as the sun begins to warm us up. Main focus
remains scattered (30-40%) storm chances this afternoon, primarily
beyond 18Z through around 00Z. While coverage looks a bit lower
than yesterday, we still should see a few stronger cells which
will produce wind gusts exceeding 35 kt. If these occur over
airfields, brief IFR/LIFR can be anticipated. Kept PROB30s for now
at most sites including MCO, but trends will be monitored for
TEMPOs if confidence increases in convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  76  93  76 /  30  20  50  10
MCO  95  77  94  76 /  30  20  30  10
MLB  93  77  93  77 /  40  30  40  10
VRB  93  75  93  75 /  40  30  30  10
LEE  93  76  92  75 /  30  20  40  10
SFB  94  77  93  77 /  40  20  40  10
ORL  94  77  94  77 /  30  20  30  10
FPR  92  75  92  75 /  40  30  40  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Heil