131
FXUS62 KMLB 302347
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
747 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

- Warm and humid weather pattern will persist across east central
  Florida through early next week, with scattered to numerous
  showers and storms possible each afternoon.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents is forecast at all east central
  Florida beaches this weekend; always swim near a lifeguard!

- Seasonably warm high temperatures are forecast through Tuesday
  followed by slightly lower temperatures behind a "backdoor" cold
  front mid week which will bring breezy NE winds and deteriorating
  boating conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Thru Tonight...Considerable mid and upper cloudiness with patchy
showers has delayed/limited sfc heating today but some thinning of
the altocu and cirrus is occurring. This should allow a sea breeze
to form along portions of the coast esp south of the Cape but
little inland penetration. CAMs vary on storm coverage late this
afternoon/early evening with HREF members (ARW and NSSL) appearing
too aggressive. Still, there is a slight increase in westerly
shear aloft and current ACARS sounding at MCO shows moist PWAT of
2.1" with SB CAPE of 2100 J/kg. So expect showers to increase in
coverage as they move west to east this aftn and develop into
lightning storms. The HRRR and RRFS show convection focusing
near the coast which looks reasonable. Heavy rain will again be a
concern with locally 1-3" in 60-90 minutes causing temporary
flooding especially areas that have seen heavy rain in recent
days.

Sun-Tue...Similarly moist pattern through early next week. The
broad surface and mid-level high pressure south of the peninsula
will remain in place as non-tropical low pressure pushes off the
SE U.S. coast Mon.  West to northwest flow persists at both the
surface and aloft, which will allow for continued scattered to
numerous shower and storm development each afternoon as the sea
breeze collision occurs across the eastern portion of the
peninsula. Lightning and wind gusts will be possible with storm
development, but heavy rainfall and flooding concerns will remain
at the forefront each day due to the moist atmospheric profile.
Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3" will be possible each
afternoon, but localized higher amounts exceeding 3" cannot be
ruled out, especially in locations that receive multiple rounds of
rainfall. Saturated locations from the prior day will also be
more susceptible to flooding. Activity will continue to push
offshore into the overnight hours.

Temperatures are forecast to remain near normal through Tuesday,
with highs climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s. Higher humidity
from the moist air mass will cause peak heat indices to reach the
mid 90s to low 100s, so adequate hydration and breaks in air
conditioning will be important for those spending extended periods
of time outdoors. Lows will generally remain in the low to mid
70s each night.

Wed-Fri...Another non-tropical low is forecast to develop off the
Carolinas Wed which is forecast to push the frontal boundary
southward across central FL. NHC will monitor this particular low
but it is not expected to stick around long as it lifts NE and
away from the east coast late week. Surface high pressure will
then filter in behind the boundary into Friday, allowing for some
drier air to settle across east central Florida towards the end of
the week. Winds will turn NE behind the front Wed and Thu, breezy
at the coast, leading to the highest rain chances shifting inland.
Temperatures are forecast to trend downward behind the front with
highs in the mid 80s which is slightly below normal for early
June.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Winds and seas are forecast to remain favorable across the local
Atlantic waters as broad high pressure stays south of the area and
a quasi-stationary boundary remains north of the area. Seas of 1
to 3 feet are forecast through Sunday with offshore winds of 5 to
10 knots in the mornings picking up to 10 to 15 knots in the
afternoons. Along the immediate coast, the sea breeze could
develop along portions of the coast. Seas build 3 to 5 feet Mon-
Tue as a low pushes eastward into the Atlantic well north of the
area, with westerly winds generally remaining offshore at 10 to
15 knots. Boating conditions begin to deteriorate Wed behind a
"backdoor" cold front when winds shift out of the NE 15-20 knots
and seas build 6-8 FT across north/central waters. NE winds
persist Thu around 15 knots with choppy seas 7-8 FT in the Gulf
Stream.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across
the local Atlantic waters over the next several days, especially
in the evenings as activity from the peninsula moves offshore and
across the waters. Storm hazards include cloud-to-water lightning
strikes, wind gusts exceeding 34 knots, and slightly higher seas
near stronger storms. Activity will diminish through the overnight
hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 726 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Most TSRA/SHRA have pushed to near the coast, but still have a few
inland stragglers INVOF KMCO/KISM. Could see additional TSRA
develop on the sea breeze pinned near the coast within the hour,
but this activity should push offshore in the westerly flow by
03Z at the latest. Only have TEMPOs where TSRA/SHRA are ongoing,
not enough confidence elsewhere. Mostly quiet conditions through
the night, save for a passing -SHRA. More breaks in the high cloud
cover Sunday, resulting in a better defined east coast sea breeze
south of the Cape and higher chances for SHRA/TSRA. Low
confidence in convection evolution, but generally speaking another
early start to quick eastward moving SHRA/TSRA is likely, most of
which should clear the inland terminals prior to 00Z Sunday.
TSRA/SHRA could become SCT-WIDE south of KMCO/the Cape where the
sea breeze will have pushed inland a bit, before pushing east
towards KTIX- KMLB. HRRR has TS impacts at these terminals well
past 00Z, which HREF is more brief and generally backs off by 01Z.
Quiet again Sunday night after TS clear, other than ISO -SHRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  87  73  88 /  20  80  30  70
MCO  74  88  74  88 /  20  80  20  50
MLB  76  88  75  90 /  20  80  30  60
VRB  75  88  74  90 /  20  80  30  60
LEE  75  89  75  89 /  30  60  30  50
SFB  74  90  74  90 /  20  80  20  60
ORL  75  89  75  89 /  20  80  20  50
FPR  74  88  73  89 /  20  70  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Haley