600
FXUS62 KMLB 072037
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
337 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 330 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

- Coverage of showers and isolated storms will increase through
  this evening with periods of moderate to heavy rain. An
  isolated strong to severe storm is possible.

- Hazardous boating conditions will develop Monday into Tuesday
  especially in the Gulf Stream.

- Near seasonable temperatures most of this coming week with a
  cooldown next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Thru tonight...Sfc analysis shows a nearly stationary frontal
boundary across central FL across Osceola and Brevard counties. To
the north, stratus and cool temperatures in the upper 60s/lower
70s. To the south, more breaks in the clouds and a south wind
component warming temps in the upper 70s/lower 80s. Weak low
pressure over the northern Gulf will move east along this boundary
and across FL tonight. Already seeing an increase in shower
coverage spreading ENE along and north of the boundary. Mid level
lapse rates remain poor based on special 18Z TBW sounding but deep
layer shear exists along with noticeable 0-1km helicities
increasing 150-250 m2/s2 later this evening. But this will be
after peak heating and any deep convection (thunder) that can
develop from Orlando northward would likely be elevated (not
sfc-based). Regardless, band of heavy rain could set up across
north/central sections this evening with locally up to 3" of rain.
The convection should decrease in coverage and intensity as it
shifts SE overnight into Okeechobee/Treasure coast.

Mon...Cold front will push south across the area with lingering
showers across central/southern sections. North wind will advect
drier air down the peninsula with rain chances ending from north
to south during the day. But skies will be slow to clear so
remaining mostly cloudy. Max temps will range from near 70 north
to the near 80 Martin county.

Tue-Sun (modified)...Mainly dry through the period with less
model indication of significant cold air intrusion into central
FL. Sfc high pressure ridge will settle southward reaching
central FL Wed. A reinforcing, but weak, high pressure ridge
builds over central Florida late week. A stronger cold front is
forecast to reach the area next weekend but wind flow should
quickly turn onshore and modify the airmass. Max temperatures
below normal Tue ranging from the mid to upper 60s north to the
mid 70s south. Then 70s forecast mid to late week before dropping
back into the mid 60s to lower 70s next weekend. Low temps holding
in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

A nearly stationary front across central FL and the adjacent Atlc
this afternoon separates a north wind component north of the Cape
and a south wind component to the south. High coverage of showers
and isolated storms will develop through tonight as weak low
pressure rides east along the front. Poor to hazardous boating
conditions develop Monday as northerly winds 20 knots and gusty
build seas 6-8 ft in the Gulf Stream. Have initiated Small Craft
Advisory for the Volusia waters as well as the offshore (Gulf
Stream) waters starting at 4 pm Monday. High pressure settles
southward reaching the local waters Wed with weak reinforcing high
pressure late week. Although NE winds will decrease Tue 10-15
knots, seas will be slow to subside, maintaining 7 FT in the Gulf
Stream. Seas will gradually subside mid to late week thanks to
proximity of the ridge axis with 2 FT nearshore and 3 FT
offshore by Fri. Rain chances diminish from north to south behind
the front Monday with dry conditions building into mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1236 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

MCO IMPACTS:
- Band of showers and storms expected late this evening. Low
  potential (<20%) for wind gusts to 35 KT.
- CIGs dropping this evening, becoming IFR tonight into much of
  Monday.

Messy surface pattern today. Weak stalled surface trough near MCO
moves little before becoming absorbed by approaching cold front
and weak low pressure from the northwest tonight. North of the
boundaries, CIGs will be an issue with IFR at times especially
SFB, LEE, DAB this afternoon. CIGs begin to drop as the cold
front nears this evening. Additionally, a band of rain and
embedded storms is forecast to sweep from near MCO between
08/00Z-03Z to VRB/FPR between 08/05Z-07Z. Setup is only
marginally favorable for strong wind gusts, but will monitor.
Behind the front, expect extended period of IFR or low MVFR CIGs
at most sites through at least Monday early afternoon. Winds
today NE/E for MCO to DAB, E to SE MLB southward, becoming
variable tonight, then W to NW on Monday. Prevailing speeds up to
12 KT outside of convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  61  70  52  66 /  90  20   0   0
MCO  65  73  54  69 /  90  30   0   0
MLB  65  75  57  71 /  70  40   0   0
VRB  66  77  58  73 /  60  60   0  10
LEE  61  71  49  67 /  90  20   0   0
SFB  63  72  52  68 /  90  20   0   0
ORL  63  72  52  68 /  90  30   0   0
FPR  66  78  59  73 /  60  60  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Heil