884
FXUS62 KMLB 041737
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1237 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 151 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

- Gradual warming into this weekend before becoming more
  seasonable/cooler early to mid next week.

- Next cold front will move through the area late Sunday into
  Monday.

- Dry conditions through late week, with increasing shower chances
  and isolated lightning storms returning this weekend along and
  ahead of that next cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Current-Fri...Surface high pressure weakens today across the region,
though conditions stay mainly dry thru the period. Light and
variable winds veer NE/ENE 5-10 mph today, but we may see a
degree of variability for surface winds across the ECFL interior
into the afternoon as the pgrad is very weak. Light winds
tonight, then S/SW winds 7-12 mph (few higher gusts) developing
into Fri. The next weather system will develop across the western
Gulf with low pressure tracking across the northern Gulf late
tonight/Fri. This should drag the next front into the FL
Panhandle/north FL by sunrise Sat morning where it becomes quasi-
stationary. Increasing moisture will pool along and ahead of this
feature to the north of central FL. Partly cloudy skies into Fri,
but expect increasing cloudiness across the I-4 corridor later in
the period where moisture is deepest.

Gradual warming trend into late work-week with maxes today in the
L70s along the Volusia coast and M-U70s across the I-4 corridor
southward - perhaps some 80 degree readings near Kenansville
southward inland from the coast. Near 80F to L80s prevail Fri and
perhaps a few M80s southern Osceola-southwest Brevard southward
west of I-95. For mins, slightly warmer tonight/Fri morning with
U50s to L60s forecast, except M60s for barrier islands and coastal
Martin County. Generally L-M 60s areawide Fri overnight/Sat
morning.

Sat-Wed...The next front meanders across the north-central FL
peninsula, but appears to finally get a nudge southward Sun
overnight/early Mon. Deepest moisture still pools near this boundary
with PWATs 1.75-2.00" across the area on Sun. We keep ISOLD-SCT (20-
50%) showers in the forecast Brevard-Osceola northward Sat-Sat
night, increasing values areawide 40-60% on Sun and around 40% Sun
night. Showers (15-30%) end north-south thru the day on Mon from
near Orlando southward. There will also be an ISOLD threat of
thunder this weekend - mainly on Sun, with a few lingering storms
still possible along the Treasure Coast on Mon as moisture is slow
to scour out. Weak high pressure gradually settles in behind this
latest weather system into mid next week with mainly dry
conditions areawide Mon night-Wed across land.

Highs remain above normal in the U70s/L80s (few M80s southward) for
Sat-Sun (pre-frontal). Cooler conditions return on Mon-Wed (post-
frontal) in the U60s to L-M70s. Lows in the 60s areawide Sat/Sun
overnight periods. Generally 50s areawide Mon overnight/Tue, except
U40s for portions of north Lake/northwest Volusia counties. Tue
night will be the coldest with L-M40s north/west of I-4 with U40s to
around 50F southward thru much of the interior (W of I-95) &
Volusia coast. L-M50s further south along the Space/Treasure
coasts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Today-Mon...A developing long period ERLY swell ~10 seconds
continues into Sat. Winds and seas become favorable into late
week as light northerly winds early today begin to veer more
onshore through the day and become southerly thru Fri and SW Fri
night/Sat and more SW/W Sat night/Sun ahead of an approaching
front. Winds become NW/N on Mon (post-frontal) with speeds
increasing to 15-20 kts and higher gusts. Seas 2-3 ft very near
shore thru Sat, but may increase to 5 ft well offshore Cape
northward Sat overnight/Sun and 6 ft offshore Sun night/Mon. Seas
are forecast to build further to 7 ft over the offshore legs Mon
overnight. Generally dry thru Fri night, but increasing shower
chances and ISOLD lightning storms may enter the picture again
Sat-Sun as moisture increases with approaching front. Precip
gradually winds down later on Mon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1235 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

VFR to continue thru the TAF period. ENE winds 5-10 kt today
begin to veer S overnight, then become SSW during the day on Fri.
Speeds increase to 8-12 kt after 14z-15z Fri. with upper level
cirrus and FEW030 anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  81  63  77 /   0   0  10  30
MCO  62  83  65  82 /   0   0   0  20
MLB  63  83  63  82 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  61  83  63  83 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  59  82  65  79 /   0   0  20  40
SFB  61  83  65  80 /   0   0  10  30
ORL  62  83  65  80 /   0   0  10  30
FPR  61  83  63  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Schaper