179
FXUS62 KMLB 140801
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
301 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 301 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

- Breezy/gusty south winds develop Sunday afternoon. Combined with
  warm temperatures, very sensitive fire weather conditions will
  result.

- Rain likely Sunday night with embedded storms. A few storms may
  contain strong wind gusts. This much needed rainfall will not
  have a significant impact on our drought.

- Only slightly cooler Monday with lingering showers. Then warming
  back up mid week and quickly drying out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Today-Tonight... Light north to northeast winds this morning shift
further east into the afternoon as high pressure centered over the
Carolina coast pushes into the western Atlantic. Most areas remain
dry with isolated showers generally confined to the Atlantic waters
south of the Cape. Have kept only a small PoP (~20%) along the
immediate Treasure Coast this afternoon. Skies remain mostly sunny
with cloud cover increasing this evening and into the overnight.
Onshore flow should keep coastal temperatures in the low to mid 70s
while temperatures increase into the upper 70s and lower 80s further
inland.

Sunday-Monday... Breezy and gusty southerly flow develops Sunday as
a cold front approaches from the west-northwest. While most areas
will remain dry through much of the morning and early afternoon
Sunday, high-res guidance has shown the best chances (20-30%) for
isolated to scattered showers developing across portions of the
Treasure Coast and Southern Brevard. More widespread coverage (70-
90%) of showers and isolated lightning storms increases north and
west of the I-4 corridor into Sunday evening, spreading southward
through the overnight hours ahead of the front. An uncertain
storm environment exists Sunday night, with an overall lack of
instability. However, surface to 1km shear profiles around 35-40
kts could allow for isolated stronger storms where updrafts
develop. Therefore, a conditional threat for strong to marginally
severe storms exists into the nighttime hours for areas primarily
north of a line from Titusville to Lake Kissimmee. Even in the
absence of stronger storms, low level wind profiles will be
supportive of showers producing wind gusts up to 45 mph. Outside
of storms, widespread rainfall accumulations generally remain less
than one-half inch. While there is high confidence for the
greatest rain chances to occur overnight Sunday and into early
Monday, there remains uncertainty in rain chances through the
daytime period on Monday. The current forecast carries a 20-40%
chance of rain across much of the area into Monday afternoon to
more broadly capture the uncertainty. However, slightly better
consistency among the most recent ensemble members and
deterministic solutions are starting to increase confidence in a
faster drying solution, especially further north.

Despite increasing cloud cover, southerly flow ahead of the front
will allow temperatures to climb into the low 80s across much of
east central Florida on Sunday. A temperature gradient will then
exist on Monday as northerly winds around 10 mph gradually spread
central Florida behind the front. While high temperatures fall into
the mid 70s near and north of I-4, values should continue to hold in
the low 80s across the south in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee. Low
temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s Sunday morning more widely
range the low 60s on Monday morning.

Tuesday-Friday... Surface high pressure slides into the western
Atlantic Tuesday with the western flank of the ridge axis settling
towards south Florida mid to late week. A warming trend is forecast
each day with no mentionable rainfall. Highs in the mid to upper 70s
across much of the area on Tuesday increase to spread the low to mid
80s by Thursday. Low temperatures hold steady in the low to mid 50s
each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions today with onshore winds
around 10 knots and seas 2-3 ft. Deteriorating boating conditions
are expected on Sunday as winds increase out of the south ahead of a
cold front. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect for the offshore
waters (20-60 nm) at 10 AM Sunday as winds increase to around 20-25
kts. Small craft should exercise caution nearshore (0-20 nm) for
south winds 15-20 kts. Increasing winds will gradually build seas 5-
7 ft in the Gulf Stream into Sunday evening. Winds slowly veer
offshore into Monday morning, before diminishing 10-15 kts out of
the north Monday afternoon behind the front.

Isolated showers are forecast across the waters today, primarily
south of the Cape. Showers increase into Sunday, becoming widespread
in coverage (70-90%) Sunday night ahead of the front. A few strong
to marginally severe storms will be possible Sunday night,
particularly from the Cape northward. Even in the absence of storms,
showers will be capable of wind gusts of 34 kts. Rain chances linger
over the waters Monday before drying Tuesday and into mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1223 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions prevailing, despite some MIFG producing bouncy
reductions in VIS at FPR and SUA. Light winds overnight increase
to around 8-12 kts from the east after 16Z. Winds will then
slacken after sunset and veer southeasterly, though they will
remain elevated near 8-10 kts along the coast overnight south of
Cape Canaveral.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Breezy and gusty winds increase out of the south on Sunday as a cold
front approaches from the west-northwest. Min RH values are forecast
around 45% over much of the interior. So Red Flag conditions are not
forecast but Very Good to Excellent dispersion values will combine
with very warm temperatures to produce a very sensitive fire weather
day. Widespread rain chances (70-90%) build overnight Sunday, but
total rainfall amounts generally remain between 0.25-0.75 inch for
most areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  58  81  60 /   0  10  50  90
MCO  79  61  83  63 /   0  10  30  90
MLB  74  60  81  60 /  10  10  40  80
VRB  76  61  81  60 /  20  20  30  70
LEE  78  59  82  61 /   0   0  50  90
SFB  78  60  83  63 /   0   0  40  90
ORL  79  61  83  63 /   0   0  40  90
FPR  76  59  81  60 /  20  20  20  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for
     AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Leahy