821
FXUS62 KMLB 231856
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
256 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- A prolonged period of hazardous to dangerous beach and boating
  conditions are forecast across east central Florida through the
  remainder of this week and into next week. Entering the ocean is
  not advised!

- Rough, dangerous surf, minor to moderate coastal flooding,
  moderate to major beach erosion, a high risk of rip currents,
  and Gale conditions will be possible this weekend and early next
  week.

- Isolated shower chances along the coast tonight, with
  increasing rain and storm chances forecast through the weekend.
  Minor flooding cannot be ruled out due to repeated rounds of
  showers and the potential for training bands of showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Tonight...High pressure over the Northeast U.S. slides gradually
southward tonight, with pressure gradient tightening slightly. N/NE
winds will continue across the area, with speeds around 5-10 mph.
Breezy 925mb winds out of the NE will continue to moisten the lower
levels. This should at least lead to the development of isolated
showers over the waters that are able to push southwest and onshore
into tonight. Have PoPs around 20% along the coast. Northerly flow
allows min temps to drop to the low to mid 60s over the interior,
with a slight onshore component to the wind along the coast should
lead to lows in the mid 60s to low 70s east of I-95.

Saturday-Tuesday...Strong ridge continues to slide south across the
eastern U.S. seaboard as weak low develops across the Bahamas along
a stalled front. This will continue to tighten the pressure gradient
across the area, leading to breezy to windy NE winds across the
region. Wind speeds will reach around 15-20 mph tomorrow, with
gusts to 30-35 mph, and then on Sunday will likely need a Wind
Advisory for much of the area as winds continue to strengthen to
20-25 mph and gusts up to 35-40 mph. A Wind Advisory may even need
to begin earlier, potentially by early evening Saturday, for
Volusia/Northern Brevard coast as wind surge begins and gusts up
to 35-40 mph will be possible. Windy conditions may then continue
into early next week as the low lingers out across the western
Atlantic and strong ridge remains to the north.

Moisture will continue to increase across the area and combine with
the strong low level NE flow to produce increasing coverage of
onshore moving showers this weekend. Greatest rain chances will
reside along the coast (up to 70-80% Sunday), but this activity will
be able to push well inland (PoPs up to 40-60%), especially across
northern portions of east central Florida Saturday and across the
rest of the interior Saturday night into Sunday. Rain chances then
gradually trend downward into early next week currently, but
isolated to scattered onshore moving showers will continue to be
possible. There will also be an increase in instability which may
lead to isolated storms as well, but chances remain low (around 20-
30%). A Marginal Risk (1/4) of excessive rainfall is outlooked along
much of the coast Saturday and then continues south of the Cape,
with a Slight Risk (2/4) of excessive rainfall across Martin County
on Sunday. Mostly minor flooding will be possible due to repeated
rounds of showers and training bands that could develop.
Temperatures are anticipated to be near seasonable values, in the
upper 70s to low 80s during the afternoon hours and in the 60s to
low 70s overnight.

The combination of strengthening NE winds, high astronomical tides,
and building seas will lead to dangerous boating and very hazardous
coastal conditions that will persist through at least early this
week. Rough, pounding surf with large breaking waves building to 7
to 12 feet and a high risk of rip currents will lead to dangerous
surf conditions and moderate to major beach erosion. Minor to
moderate coastal flooding will also occur around the times of high
tides, with the greatest tides of concern being Sunday and Monday
mornings. A Coastal Flood Advisory continues for Saturday,
transitioning into a Coastal Flood Watch on Sunday that has been
extended through Monday. High Surf Advisories will likely be needed
beginning late Saturday, continuing into early next week. Overall,
conditions will be hazardous and dangerous and entering the surf is
STRONGLY discouraged. Even visiting the beach could become
hazardous, especially during periods of high tide.

Wednesday-Thursday..At least a breezy NE flow looks to persist
through middle of next week. There remains some differences in the
models with how strong the pressure gradient remains between ridge
to the north and lingering low pressure either well south or
southeast of the area. This will continue hazardous surf and boating
conditions, with lingering beach erosion and coastal flooding issues
likely. Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers remain in the
forecast and temperatures will remain near around normal for this
time of year.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Hazardous boating conditions continue across the waters and are
forecast to become dangerous through this weekend and into early
next week. A tightening pressure gradient will result in
increasingly breezy and windy northeast winds, with sustained
winds of 15 to 20 knots tonight increasing to 20 to 30 knots late
Saturday onward. Wind gusts also increase, reaching gale-force by
Saturday evening. These increasing winds will cause seas to surge,
with 6 to 8 foot seas tonight reaching a peak of 12 to 15 feet
late this weekend into early next week. At this time, forecast
winds and seas are slow to subside through next week, resulting in
a prolonged period of hazardous boating conditions across the
local Atlantic waters. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for
the local waters through Saturday, with Gale Watches expanding
from north to south late Saturday into Sunday and continuing
through Monday. Aside from the hazardous boating conditions, rain
chances are forecast to increase through this weekend as moisture
increases. Low rain chances tonight (20-30%) increase this weekend
and Monday (40-80%). There remains a low chance (20-30%) of storm
development with activity.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with north-
northeasterly flow. On and off isolated showers cannot be ruled
out across the coastal TAF sites SAT AM. Expect north-northeast
winds at 10-14kts with gusts up to 18kts-22kts to weaken tonight
before increasing SAT after 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  79  70  79 /  20  60  70  80
MCO  64  81  69  81 /  10  20  40  50
MLB  68  81  71  81 /  20  30  70  80
VRB  68  83  70  83 /  20  20  70  80
LEE  61  79  68  80 /   0  30  30  20
SFB  63  81  68  81 /  10  40  50  60
ORL  63  82  69  82 /  10  20  50  50
FPR  68  82  70  82 /  20  20  70  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for
     FLZ141-154-347-447-647-747.

     Coastal Flood Watch from late Saturday night through Monday
     evening for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ159-164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ550-552-570-
     572.

     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Monday evening for
     AMZ550-552-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-575.

     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for AMZ555-
     575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Fehling