267
FXUS62 KMLB 031126
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
626 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 116 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Areas affected by catastrophic flooding remain extremely
  sensitive to any additional rainfall. A Flood Watch remains in
  effect along the coast and for Okeechobee County this morning.
  Avoid flooded roads, and do not walk or wade through floodwater!
  Rain chances decrease to 50-60% today, with most locations
  receiving less than an inch. There is a 5-10% chance for
  isolated rainfall totals of 1.5 to 2.5 inches through this
  evening.

- Dangerous beach conditions persist, with a high risk of life-
  threatening rip currents and rough surf at all east coast
  beaches of Central Florida today. Please stay out of the ocean.

- Rain chances continue to drop through the week, with most areas
  rain-free from Thursday through the weekend. The next
  significant cold front may approach the area by Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

An upper-air disturbance continues to meander in the eastern Gulf
this morning, with vorticity perturbations extending over South
Florida. This feature has become detached from the jet stream and
is expected to weaken further over the next couple of days. It has
interacted with unusually rich moisture and persistent onshore
flow off the Atlantic to produce heavy to extreme precipitation
over parts of the state over the last 48 hours.

The subtropical jet stream remains active across the Central and
Western U.S. A pair of shortwaves is traversing the jet, the first
now reaching Missouri and the second over the Great Basin. These
two disturbances are forecast to merge into a positively tilted
trough over the Ohio Valley by Friday. At the surface, high
pressure should slowly lose its influence over the Eastern
Seaboard later this week, allowing onshore flow to abate. As the
trough moves north of Florida from Friday into Saturday, a diffuse
cold front should drift toward the area. The rich moisture
currently in place will decrease to near or just above seasonal
norms from late Thursday through at least Saturday. However, the
late-week cold front brings little to no cold air advection.

By Sunday, ensemble guidance shows a potential phasing of additional
subtropical and polar jet stream energy over the Mississippi Valley,
eventually carving out a trough over the Southeast U.S. by next
Monday. There remains some disagreement in its depth and timing,
but a progressive and positively-tilted trough is favored. Its cold
front is likely to arrive sometime from late Sunday into Monday. A
brief surge of deeper moisture is noted ahead of the front, and
at least modest cold air advection appears likely once it passes.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Now - Tonight...

Following catastrophic flooding across portions of east central
Florida on Monday, even modest additional rainfall could exacerbate
ongoing flooding. Thankfully, the persistent convergence and
forcing responsible for the extreme rainfall have diminished
considerably. However, we still have plentiful moisture and
onshore flow, capable of producing occasional downpours. While
this is expected to produce additional rainfall of less than an
inch in most spots, it won`t take much more than that to cause
water levels to rise where flooding is ongoing. The Flood Watch
remains in effect for coastal counties and Okeechobee County
until 10 am, and a Flood Warning continues for areas along the
coast that received the heaviest rainfall totals until 9:30
am. Rain chances today range from 50-60% across much of the area,
but the rain should not be continuous.

Flooding is ongoing in many places, and there are abandoned
vehicles in some neighborhoods. Avoid driving or wading through
floodwater! Flooding will be slow to recede due to saturated
soils, high water tables, and limited drainage capacity.

Some breaks of sunshine are expected today, which should warm
many spots back into the lower 80s. Breezy east winds continue,
with gusts 15-25 mph. Rough surf and life-threatening rip currents
persist at all east coast beaches of Central Florida. Additionally,
minor tidal flooding remains possible, especially in Martin County
this afternoon.

Wednesday - Friday...

Onshore flow weakens, but moisture remains sufficient for scattered
showers and isolated storm development on Wednesday. Rain chances
will range from 20% at the coast to 30-50% over the interior. On
average, light rainfall totals are expected. By Thursday and Friday,
deeper moisture will begin to scour out, allowing rain chances to
drop to 20% or less to end the week. Warm temperatures are forecast,
with highs in the mid 80s under partly to mostly sunny skies.

Weekend - Early Next Week...

We should continue our drying trend for much of the weekend, as
rain chances hold at 20% or less. Highs will remain warm in the
lower 80s, but many areas should dip into the 60s at night.

Uncertainty remains, but the next cold front is favored to wait
until Monday to reach Central Florida. The amount of moisture and
the strength of the front will dictate rain chances, which for now
are 20-30%. Some cooler air is expected to follow the front next
week. Statistical guidance currently gives us a 60-70% chance of
failing to reach the 80-degree mark next Tuesday, along with a
50-70% chance of reaching the 50s by next Tuesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 116 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Moderate to fresh onshore flow continues on the southern flank of a
strong surface high to the north of Florida. This is causing rough
seas and hazardous boating conditions. As the high weakens from
Wednesday into late this week, winds are forecast to decrease,
allowing seas to subside, especially nearshore. Low pressure in
the Atlantic, to the northeast of the Bahamas, is forecast to send
a long-period swell toward the local waters from Friday night into
the weekend. This may cause hazardous conditions, especially near
inlets. A weak cold front may drift over the waters late Friday
into Saturday with little to no impact.

E winds 10-20 kt today, decreasing to around 10 kt on Wednesday
before backing to the NE 5-10 kt on Thursday. Seas subside from 5-7
ft today to 3-6 ft on Wednesday and Thursday. A long-period swell
(5-7 ft at 10-12 sec) begins to arrive on Friday, peaking early
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 625 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Moist easterly flow will continue with scattered to numerous
Atlantic showers streaming onshore. Most terminals will be VFR but
TEMPO SHRA for MVFR conds with brief IFR CIGs/VSBYs possible in
+SHRA. Morning coastal showers will progress into the interior
moving quickly WNW. E winds 10-15 knots, gusting 20-22 knots may
cause some crosswind issues at MCO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  72  83  69 /  40  10  10   0
MCO  83  71  85  69 /  60  10  40  10
MLB  83  74  83  71 /  50  20  20   0
VRB  85  74  85  71 /  50  30  20  10
LEE  84  70  86  69 /  60  10  40  10
SFB  84  71  86  69 /  60  10  30  10
ORL  84  71  85  69 /  60  10  30  10
FPR  84  73  84  70 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-058-141-154-
     159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ159-
     164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ550-
     552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for AMZ575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Kelly