733
FXUS62 KMLB 112352
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
752 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Heat Advisory issued for all of east central Florida through 8pm
  today for heat index values up to 108F-110F degrees; Remember
  to practice heat safety!

- Hot and humid conditions will continue for at least the next
  several days. Maximum heat index values will reach near Heat
  Advisory criteria (108F+) each day through at least Friday.

- Near to below normal rain chances this week. Drier air aloft due
  to a Saharan Dust Layer will support strong gusty winds in any
  lightning storms each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...A few showers are beginning to develop on
KMLB radar as of around 2 PM. Otherwise, the cumulus field seen on
GOES-East VIS imagery looks limited in vertical growth. This makes
sense, given subsidence aloft due to a mid-level ridge over the
Florida peninsula. However, additional development (PoPs to
20-40%) will be possible into the early evening hours. CAMs
suggest the sea breeze collision as the focal point for scattered
showers and storms through around 7 PM, before drier conditions
develop for the overnight hours. A few strong storms cannot be
ruled out this afternoon, especially along the collision, with the
15Z XMR sounding finding 900 J/kg of DCAPE. Wind gusts to near 50
mph, lightning strikes, and locally heavy downpours will be the
main threats. Hot conditions, with a Heat Advisory in effect for
the entire CWA through 8 PM will yield to overnight lows that
remain in the mid to upper 70s tonight.

Wednesday-Friday...Similar conditions persist through late week,
as high pressure through the column meanders in the vicinity of
the Florida peninsula and the eastern Gulf. While subsidence aloft
continues to be a limiting factor to convection, humid conditions
linger, with PWATs 1.8-2+" providing sufficient moisture for
development. Thus, PoPs remain near to below normal (especially
Wednesday), with chances 20-50%. Interior locations will likely
remain dry Wednesday, though convection overall looks to be widely
scattered at best to end the work week. Gusty winds to around 50
mph will continue to be a threat in any stronger storms due to
drier air aloft. Light offshore winds overnight remain less than
10 mph through the day, but back S/SE near the coast as the sea
breeze develops.

Humid conditions, limited showers and storms, and a weak east
coast sea breeze will maintain hot conditions through Friday.
Highs slightly above normal in the lower to mid-90s will help to
support heat indices 102-107+ degrees each afternoon. Will
continue to monitor the need for additional Heat Advisories for at
least portions of the area through Friday. Regardless, be sure to
practice heat safety for the remainder of the week.

Saturday-Tuesday...The Atlantic ridge strengthens into the
weekend, with the ridge axis stretching westward towards the
Florida peninsula through the period. Aloft, ridging consolidates
over the northwestern Gulf coast. Despite ridging weakening
slightly over the local area, an enhanced pocket of Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) looks to move into the peninsula. Therefore, PoPs look
to remain below normal into early next week. Strong wind gusts
will continue to be a threat due to dry air aloft. Also, hot
conditions will likely continue, with highs remaining in the 90s
and humid August dewpoints.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Overall favorable boating conditions are forecast through this
weekend, as high pressure dominates the local pattern. Light
offshore flow backs S/SE near the coast each day with the
development of the sea breeze, but remains around 10 kts or less.
Below normal coverage of showers and storms is forecast, though
any storms will be capable of strong wind gusts to near 45 kts, in
addition to lightning strikes. Seas 1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Still a few more boundary collisions expected INVOF of KMCO/KSFB/
KISM. TS/SH have struggled but still manage to produce outflow,
and have continued PROB30s that were added between TAF packages
at the aforementioned terminals, mainly for wind shifts but can`t
rule out brief VIS reductions. Activity should diminish by around
02Z. Onshore (ESE-SE) winds 5-10 kts away from TS/SH become
light/ VRB overnight. Winds become offshore (WSW-WNW) 5-10 kts
Wednesday in the late morning to early afternoon,
delaying/slowing development of the east coast sea breeze, with
winds shifting onshore (E-SE) around 10 kts behind the boundary.
Some uncertainty in afternoon convective development, but chances
generally lower than normal due to dry air. VC timing for this
package based on HREF, which calls for a southward propagation of
TS/SH after around 17Z, with TS chances higher closer to the
coast along the slowed/pinned sea breeze, and lower inland. TS
could start sooner than currently advertised from KMLB- KSUA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  93  76  93 /  10  30  30  40
MCO  77  95  77  95 /  20  10  10  40
MLB  78  93  77  92 /  10  20  20  30
VRB  75  93  75  92 /  10  30  20  30
LEE  77  94  77  94 /  10  10  10  40
SFB  77  95  77  94 /  10  20  20  50
ORL  78  94  78  94 /  10  20  10  40
FPR  77  93  76  92 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-
     058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Haley