503
FXUS62 KMLB 242344
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
744 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

- Scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and
  storms will persist through the week, with the highest coverage
  expected from mid to late week. A few storms will be capable of
  producing gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph, particularly this
  afternoon and Tuesday.

- Seasonably hot and humid conditions are expected through the
  week. Those working or recreating outdoors should take frequent
  breaks and stay hydrated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Current-Tonight...Temperatures top out in the L-M90s this
afternoon with peak heat indices continuing above 100F, but
remaining below Heat Advisory criteria. Residents and visitors are
strongly encouraged to practice heat safety to avoid developing
heat illness. Weak mid-level troughing continues across ECFL and
will enhance ISOLD-SCT (20-50%) diurnal shower/lightning storms
this afternoon and evening. Highest chances across the I-4
corridor where greatest moisture and strongest late day boundary
collisions occur. Storm motion is weak/erratic. Drier air aloft
may support local strong wind gusts (45-55 mph) in a few storms
with other storm impacts remaining frequent lightning strikes and
torrential downpours leading to quick 1-3" rainfall totals for
some. Minor/nuisance flooding possible locally. Activity will wind
down through mid evening. Min temperatures fall into the M70s
with conditions humid.

Tue-Tue Night...Surface ridge axis initially across the south-
central FL peninsula begins to slowly lift northward. Light morning
SW winds will "back" onshore in the afternoon with sea breeze
formation and march inland. ISOLD-SCT showers/lightning storms with
the ECSB near the coast - quicker movement inland south; similarly
the quicker-moving WCSB will promote initial convection across our
western coverage warning area. A late day/evening sea breeze
collision across the interior may send a few storms back to the
coast, esp Cape northward. PoPs 30-60% - highest interior & I-4
corridor. Activity will wind down thru mid evening. Primary storm
impacts remain frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds 45-55 mph
locally, torrential downpours possibly leading to minor/nuisance
flooding. Storm motion toward the NE at 5-10 mph.

High temps continue in the L-M90s. Peak heat indices 100 to 107.
Overnight lows consistent in the M70s. Cloud-cover thins thru the
night with conditions muggy.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Below.

Wed-Fri...As high pressure nudges essentially overhead, the low-
level sea breeze circulation will be the dominant force for storm
development each day. Light offshore flow in the mid-levels will try
to steer showers and storms back toward the coast in the evening
hours. As moisture returns to normal, this portends fairly high
coverage of afternoon and early evening showers and storms for east
central Florida (50-70%).

Seasonably hot conditions continue, with highs in the low to mid
90s and heat indices of 100 to 107.

Next Weekend into Monday...Near-normal moisture remains in place
with high pressure strengthening nearby or just northeast of the
local area. Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening storms
should continue, but the focus may shift over the interior as mid-
level offshore flow weakens. Continued seasonable heat and humidity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions continue across the local
waters outside of shower/lightning storm activity through this week.
The Atlantic surface high slowly lifts north across the waters this
week, allowing southwesterly winds to become more southerly. Light
offshore winds 5 to 10 kts during the overnight and morning hours
increase to 10 to 12 kts and shift to out of the southeast during
the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops each day. Seas
remain generally between 1 to 2 ft (occasionally 3 ft), with the
highest seas focused across the offshore waters. Isolated to
scattered shower and lightning storm development will be forecast,
with activity affecting the intracoastal/near shore Atlc waters each
afternoon/evening. Additional shower/storm development overnight
across the Gulf Stream waters will be possible. Storm hazards will
include frequent cloud-to-water lightning strikes, wind gusts in
excess of 30 kts, heavy downpours, and locally higher seas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Sea breeze collision is occurring between the KMCO/Orlando
terminals and KTIX-KSUA on the coast. So far dry air has been
winning out and only ISO TS/SH have developed, but will continue
with PROB30s at KMCO/KISM/KSFB inland and KTIX on the coast due to
their proximity to the collision. Most terminals continue VCTS/
VCSH for the low chance outflow can develop an ISO TS/SH. Winds
may shift abruptly offshore at KTIX-KSUA even is TS/SH don`t
develop as the WCSB enhanced by outflow overruns the ECSB. Any TS
that manage to develop should dissipate by 02Z at the latest, then
quiet VFR overnight. Tuesday, flow becomes a little more offshore,
slowing development/inland progression of the sea breeze and
favoring a collision INVOF the ECFL terminals. Increasing moisture
brings afternoon-evneing TS/SH chances up closer to normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  92  75  91 /  20  50  20  70
MCO  76  95  76  95 /  20  40  30  70
MLB  77  93  77  91 /  10  40  20  70
VRB  75  92  75  91 /  10  30  20  60
LEE  75  92  75  92 /  20  50  10  60
SFB  75  94  75  93 /  20  40  20  70
ORL  77  94  76  94 /  20  40  20  70
FPR  75  92  75  91 /  10  30  20  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Haley