132
FXUS62 KMLB 131837
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
237 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

- Heat Advisory is in effect for all of east central Florida today
  through 8pm for heat index values up to 108F-112F degrees;
  Remember to practice heat safety!

- Hot and humid conditions are forecast to continue for the next
  week. Maximum heat index values will reach near Heat Advisory
  criteria (108F+) each day through the weekend; Additional Heat
  Advisories are likely for at least portions of east central
  Florida.

- Below normal rain chances continue into early next week. Drier
  air aloft due to the Saharan Air Layer will support strong,
  gusty winds in any lightning storms each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Rest of Today-Saturday...Hot and humid once again across east
central Florida this afternoon, with limited shower coverage as of
2 PM and a delayed, weak east coast sea breeze. Widely scattered
showers and storms are forecast to develop along the sea breeze as
it moves inland through this evening, with PoPs 20-40%. However,
this may be a bit overdone given the weak cu field seen on visible
satellite imagery. Regardless, most areas will remain dry today,
with little relief from scorching heat indices 108-112 degrees. A
Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM. Any storms that
manage to develop today will be capable of strong wind gusts to 50
mph, with dry air in the mid levels. Convection is forecast to
taper off into this evening over the interior, with overnight lows
in the mid to upper 70s.

Rinse and repeat to begin the weekend, as high pressure prevails
over the Florida peninsula. Below average coverage of showers and
storms continues, with PoPs generally 20-40%. A wave of Saharan
Dust is forecast to move into the area through Saturday,
increasing the chances for a few strong storms, with wind gusts to
around 50 mph. Light offshore flow becomes S/SE along the coast as
the sea breeze develops and moves inland. Overall, winds remain
around 10 mph or less. Low precipitation coverage and a weak sea
breeze will continue to allow highs to reach well into the 90s.
Meanwhile, humid conditions produce heat indices 108-112 degrees.
Additional Heat Advisories are likely through at least Saturday.
Don`t forget to integrate heat safety into your weekend plans!

Sunday-Thursday...Below normal rainfall chances, well below normal
at times, persist into early next week. Surface high pressure
builds back towards the peninsula and into the eastern Gulf
through the period. Aloft, a strong upper level ridge flattens
over the Southeast US. Overall, little change to the pattern for
east central Florida. Forecast PoPs peak at 20-30% or less, with
dry conditions expected area-wide for at least Monday. Most areas
will likely remain dry. Regardless, strong storms will be
possible each afternoon, with waves of SAL supporting wind gusts
to 50 mph in storms that can survive the overall subsidence. Light
offshore flow will continue to oppose the afternoon sea breeze,
which remains weak at around 10 mph or less. Highs in the mid-90s
will creep towards the upper 90s at times, with humid conditions
continuing. Additional Heat Advisories will need to be considered
through the foreseeable future.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Favorable boating conditions are forecast into early next week,
as high pressure dominates the local pattern. Light offshore flow
backs S/SE near the coast each day with the development of the sea
breeze, but remains around 10 kts or less overall. Below normal
coverage of showers and storms is forecast, especially Sunday
through Tuesday. Although, any storms will be capable of strong
wind gusts to near 45 kts, in addition to lightning strikes. Seas
1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR conds forecast outside of convection through the TAF period.
Atlc sea breeze has developed and pushed across the coastal
terminals as of 18Z producing a wind shift out of the east at 7-10
knots and this will persist through 00Z. Then a light offshore
(WSW) flow will redevelop tonight. A collision with the Gulf
breeze and assocd outflows will occur over the interior later this
afternoon. Have upgraded the PROB30 at MCO/SFB to TEMPO TS for
this aftn/early eve (20Z-24Z) as NBM and LAV PoPs have increased.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  94  76  94 /  10  30  10  10
MCO  77  96  77  97 /  20  40  20  20
MLB  77  92  77  92 /  10  20  10  10
VRB  76  92  76  92 /  10  30  10  30
LEE  78  96  78  96 /  20  40  20  20
SFB  77  96  77  96 /  20  30  10  20
ORL  78  96  77  96 /  20  40  20  20
FPR  77  92  76  92 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-
     058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Kelly