102
FXUS62 KMLB 262007
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
407 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Current-Thursday... The east coast sea breeze has formed and is
pushing inland this afternoon, and is approximately around the I-95
corridor. Scattered showers and a few lightning storms have
developed already along the sea breeze, mainly across the Treasure
Coast. The west coast sea breeze has also formed and is pushing
inland, with scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms
developing along it, producing outflow boundaries which are quickly
approaching ECFL. These outflow boundaries are expected to move into
ECFL and collide with the east coast sea breeze along the I-95
corridor, sparking additional activity along the collision.
Redevelopment of showers and storms are expected along the interior
later this afternoon and into the early evening as the west coast
sea breeze moves into ECFL and interacts with outflow boundaries.
Highest coverage of showers and storms (PoP 60 percent) will occur
along these sea breeze/outflow boundary collisions- along the I-95
corridor mid to late afternoon, and across the interior later
afternoon into early evening. Main storm threats will be frequent
lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds up to 35 mph. Hot and
muggy conditions continue with a Moderate to Major Heat Risk
remaining today. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with peak
heat indices ranging from 102-106 degrees.

Any lingering activity from this afternoon and early evening should
dissipate or move out of the local area shortly after sunset.
Easterly winds will become light and from the west to southwest
overnight. Seasonable and humid conditions tonight, with low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

Thursday, An upper level trough across Quebec will build southward
as it shifts eastward, pulling a surface boundary across the SE US.
Locally, west to southwest flow will persist as the western flank of
the Bermuda high dominates. The offshore flow will remain light
enough that the east coast sea breeze is expected to form once again
and push inland.  The west coast sea breeze remains favored, with a
sea breeze collision forecast along the I-95 corridor once again in
the afternoon. Higher coverage of showers and lightning storms
remains with PoP 60 percent in the afternoon areawide. High
temperatures remain in the low to mid 90s with peak heat index
values between 102-106 degrees.

Friday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Mid level troughing and an
accompanying surface boundary sink across the southeast U.S.,
washing out as it approaches north Florida on Friday. The western
flank of Atlantic high pressure continues to hold influence over
central Florida, keeping west to southwest flow in place through
Friday afternoon. The west coast sea breeze remains favored, with a
sea breeze collision forecast across the interior in the afternoon.
With little change expected in the pattern by Friday, have kept a
persistent forecast with PoPs up to 60% each afternoon. High
temperatures remain in the low to mid 90s with peak heat index
values between 103-107 degrees.

Saturday-Tuesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) The surface ridge
axis lifts northward through Saturday, settling across the central
peninsula into early next week. Winds become light and variable on
Saturday, with a broad southerly component developing by Sunday. The
summertime pattern continues each day, favoring diurnal showers and
lightning storms. Afternoon temperatures climb into the low to mid
90s with peak heat index values between 103-107 degrees.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 406 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Current-Tonight... Surface ridge axis will remain across the Florida
Straits into tonight. SW flow today has shifted SE/S this afternoon
behind the sea breeze, and will shift back to SW overnight, with
speeds generally around 10 KT. Seas will be 2 ft. Scattered showers
and lightning storms will be possible this afternoon through the
overnight, especially in the offshore waters.

Thursday-Monday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Seas around 2
ft gradually increase to 3 ft across the offshore waters Thursday
and Friday as an onshore swell increases. Light offshore winds
become onshore Saturday before developing a broad southerly
component on Sunday. Winds back with the development of the east
coast sea breeze each afternoon. A summertime pattern continues
with high coverage of showers and storms forecast across the local
waters (50-70%) each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

TAFs begin with TEMPO TSRA groups this aftn/eve at most sites
except for KLEE/KISM where VCTS is forecast. There`s less
certainty in coverage at inland TAFs with collision between sea
breeze/outflow from previous storms most likely to occur near and
to the E of Orlando. S/SE winds at 5-8kts are forecast to the E
of Orlando and W/SW to the W before backing offshore overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  94  76  93 /  40  60  20  60
MCO  76  93  77  93 /  50  60  10  60
MLB  76  93  76  92 /  40  60  20  60
VRB  74  93  75  93 /  30  60  20  60
LEE  76  93  78  93 /  20  60  10  60
SFB  76  94  77  94 /  40  60  10  60
ORL  77  93  78  94 /  50  60  10  60
FPR  74  92  74  92 /  30  60  20  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Fehling