440
FXUS62 KMLB 220511
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
111 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- The typical Florida summertime pattern will persist locally
  through this weekend and into next week with daily afternoon
  showers and storms forecast across east central Florida.

- Storm hazards today will include frequent to excessive
  lightning, strong wind gusts of 45-55 mph, small hail, and heavy
  downpours leading to rainfall accumulations of 1-3". There is a
  5% chance for thunderstorm wind gusts up to 60 mph along the
  coast from the Cape northward.

- Heat remains a concern across east central Florida, though peak
  heat indices are anticipated to stay below advisory criteria.
  Regardless, residents and visitors to the area are encouraged to
  practice heat safety!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Current-Tonight... Satellite imagery shows a weak mid-level low along
the northeast FL/southeast GA boarder this afternoon. Associated mid-
level boundaries wrap the southern side of the low stretching across
portions of northeast and central Florida. Despite some intrusion of
dry air aloft, cloud cover and PWATs 1.9-2.0" suggest enough
moisture to support at least scattered coverage of afternoon and
evening storms. Environmental parameters remain similar to
yesterday with cold 500mb temperatures around -7.5C and DCAPE
values 800-1,200 J/Kg. Strong storms that develop again today will
be capable of frequent to excessive lightning, wind gusts 45-55
mph, and small hail. The strongest storms should occur along
boundary collisions, particularly collisions with the east coast
sea breeze, and SPC has highlighted a Marginal risk for severe
storms along the coast from the Cape northward. Here, there is a
5% chance for downburst wind gusts to 60 mph. Strong storms will
also be capable of heavy downpours, and quick rainfall
accumulations of 2-3 inches may result in minor or nuisance
flooding. Showers and storms may linger a little bit into the
evening across a few locations with dry conditions then forecast
overnight.

Saturday-Sunday... Pulses of shortwave energy continue to pass
overhead this weekend as a mid-level trough slowly slides across the
eastern U.S. A surface front remains stationary across the southeast
while a surface ridge axis holds near or across south Florida. This
will keep light offshore flow in place, predominantly out of the
southwest. A drier airmass will favor slightly below normal rain
chances for much of east central Florida on Saturday (~20-40%).
Major global models then become split on moisture and rain chances
on Sunday. Have shown a slight upward trend in Sunday`s rain chances
with this forecast package, suggesting more seasonal coverage of
scattered afternoon showers and storms (40-60%). However, slightly
lower forecast confidence exists due to wide model discrepancy.
Cold temperatures aloft (~ -8C @ 500mb), high DCAPE (900+ J/kg),
and efficient surface heating should allow for a few strong storms
to develop each afternoon, and storms will be capable of frequent
lightning, gusty downburst winds of 40-55 mph, and small hail.
Heavy downpours within slow moving storms may result in localized
nuisance flooding. Outside of showers and storms, near to slightly
above seasonal temperatures are forecast. Highs mostly in the low
90s locally reach the mid 90s across portions of the interior.
Trends continue to hold below Heat Advisory criteria with peak
heat index values forecast to range 100-106F.

Monday-Thursday... Troughing across the eastern U.S. gradually
broadens as low pressure weakens and lifts northeast through
portions of Canada. Surface ridging becomes reestablished across
central Florida, and a loose pressure gradient will maintain light
southerly winds, often becoming variable early each day. Winds shift
onshore around 10 mph as the sea breeze develops each afternoon.
Below seasonal rain chances are forecast early in the week before a
more typical pattern of scattered afternoon and evening storms
returns generally from Wednesday onward (~40-60%). Temperatures show
little change, persisting in the low to mid 90s each afternoon with
peak heat index values between 102-107F.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

A surface ridge axis remains south of the local waters through the
weekend. This will maintain a period of light offshore flow,
shifting south to southeast in the afternoon as the sea breeze
develops. The ridge axis lifts northward on Monday, settling across
the central Florida peninsula into late week. Light southerly flow
becomes established across the waters from Monday onward, still
turning onshore daily with the sea breeze. Seas mostly hold around 2
ft, briefly building to 3 ft offshore this weekend. Isolated to
scattered offshore moving storms area forecast in the afternoons and
evenings, and stronger storms will be capable of wind gusts to 34
kts or greater, frequent cloud to water lightning, and locally
higher seas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Continued quiet with predominant VFR through midday. Light SSW
winds up to 7 KT, becoming SE at coastal terminals this afternoon.
Expecting 30-40% storm coverage today, with potentially a later
start. With that in mind, have introduced PROB30s at many
terminals centered between 21Z and 01Z depending on the airfield.
For MCO, 22Z to 01Z appears to hold the highest chance for
convection. With drier air aloft, intense downdrafts will be a
concern. Stronger storms will once again carry a risk of gusts
35+ kt and brief LIFR/IFR restrictions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  75  92  75 /  40  20  30  10
MCO  95  76  93  76 /  30  20  40  10
MLB  94  76  93  76 /  40  30  40  10
VRB  93  75  93  75 /  40  20  30  10
LEE  93  75  91  75 /  30  10  40  10
SFB  94  76  92  76 /  40  20  40  10
ORL  95  77  93  77 /  30  20  40  10
FPR  92  75  93  75 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Heil