418
FXUS62 KMLB 281738
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
138 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

- Daily rain and lightning storm chances increase late week into
  the weekend, bringing the potential of gusty winds, frequent
  lightning, and torrential downpours

- With repeated rounds of rainfall possible over some of the same
  locations each day, the risk for localized flooding increases
  this weekend into early next week

- A moderate rip current risk exists at area beaches today and may
  persist at some east central Florida beaches this weekend

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Today-Tonight...Weak surface-500mb flow, a nearby stationary front,
and 2"+ PW have resulted in some persistent coastal showers and
storms across northern Volusia County this morning. A couple of rain
gauges at the immediate coast and on the barrier island received 4-
5" of rainfall as a result. Farther south, isolated showers over
Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast have developed. As we
approach daybreak, most activity is forecast to trend offshore,
leaving a majority of the area dry to start the day.

Light and variable winds through mid morning will gradually veer
easterly at the coast as we approach lunchtime. As the east coast
sea breeze develops, temperatures are forecast to reach the upper
80s to low 90s by early afternoon. Portions of the coast will
experience the sea breeze first, and this is where some of the first
showers and storms are anticipated, beginning as early as 11AM-1PM.
Outflow created by this convection may help accelerate the sea
breeze inland, resulting in additional showers and lightning storms
along and west of Interstate 95. Again today, westerly steering flow
will remain weak. Expect erratic storm motions and new convection
forming at the intersection of outflow boundaries and the eventual
east-west coast sea breeze collision. This collision is anticipated
near the Greater Orlando area, extending south toward the Kissimmee
Prairie and Okeechobee County.

By early evening, ongoing showers and storms are forecast to
drift back toward the Atlantic coast, eventually pushing offshore
by midnight Friday. CAM forecast soundings indicate an environment
supportive of gusty winds to 50 mph, frequent lightning strikes,
and torrential downpours. Small hail cannot be ruled out with the
most organized storms as steep low-level lapse rates combine with
marginal (6C/km) mid-level lapse rates and some residual drying
in the ice growth region. Per usual, we will also be keeping an
eye on any boundary collisions for short-lived rotation. Not
everyone will receive measurable rainfall today, but those who do
could pick up a quick 1-3".

Drier conditions resume in large part late tonight into early Friday
as temperatures settle into the mid 70s. A stray shower or two
cannot be entirely ruled out along the immediate coast overnight.

This Weekend...Deep moisture return, a stationary front draped over
north-central Florida, and pockets of mid/upper level energy
rounding the base of an eastern CONUS trough will set the stage for
unsettled weather this holiday weekend. On Friday, weak surface
winds in the morning will turn ENE as the east coast breeze pushes
inland (perhaps slightly faster across the northern CWA). Westerly
steering flow deepens/strengthens a bit as PVA rounds the base of a
500mb trough over north Florida. More afternoon showers and storms
are forecast with precip chances around 60-75% areawide. Gusty
winds, frequent lightning, and torrential downpours will accompany
the most organized activity. By early evening, a drift of storms
back toward the coast will once again be favored. With greater
moisture availability, some showers may linger into the overnight
hours (especially along the coast) as temperatures retreat into the
70s.

Greater coverage of showers and lightning storms are forecast both
Saturday and Sunday. Repeated rounds of rainfall spell a gradually
increasing risk for localized flooding as we move further into the
weekend. Saturated sounding profiles with PW near 2.1-2.2"+ each
afternoon, while in the presence of a stalled front just to the
north, indicate the potential for storms each day to produce high
rainfall rates. A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall covers most of
the area Friday and Saturday, with the northern two-thirds of ECFL
favored on Sunday. Heavier rains over the St. Johns River Basin
could also lead to Astor remaining in at least Action Stage for some
time longer. Confidence in storms pushing back toward the coast each
afternoon and evening is medium, due to stronger WNW steering flow
(especially Sunday). Widespread 1-2" of rainfall is forecast by this
time Monday morning, though 48-hour HREF PMM (thru Friday night)
alone indicates localized pockets of 2-4"+. In addition to the
rainfall threat, gusty winds produced by water-loaded downdrafts and
frequent lightning are also in play. For those with outdoor plans
this weekend, be prepared to move indoors when thunder roars and
skies threaten!

Labor Day-Wednesday...The stretch of unsettled wet weather looks to
last into the first part of next week as 500mb trough anomalies park
over the eastern half of the country. Rain chances remain high (70-
80%) through at least Tuesday before we start to see some movement
in the surface front to our north. The front is forecast to very
slowly drift southward toward the Treasure Coast by Wednesday and
eventually reach the Florida Straits on Thursday. Global models are
in a little more agreement in the most recent 00z run, with
comparably drier air moving into the northern half of ECFL by
Wednesday. North-northeasterly surface winds turn increasingly
onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon, which is where much of
the shower and storm activity will continue to be focused.
Looking ahead, it does look rain chances taper down a bit more
later next week.

Temperatures early next week are forecast to be near to slightly
below normal for the start of September: highs in the mid 80s to
near 90 degrees and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. As rain
chances decrease by the middle to latter part of next week,
temperatures do look to trend upward.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A frontal boundary will remain stalled near to just north of the
local waters through Sunday before gradually sinking southward early
next week. Deep moisture return, the nearby front, and some
additional mid/upper level support lead to above normal rain and
lightning storm chances, beginning today. As the east coast sea
breeze forms each afternoon, showers and storms are forecast to
drift inland. However, increasing west-northwest steering flow into
the weekend will result in late afternoon/evening offshore-moving
storms. Strong wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes, and
torrential rainfall may accompany any organized storm. Locally
higher winds and seas are possible in the vicinity of storms.

Otherwise, light winds turn onshore each afternoon, veering offshore
at night. Sunday into Monday, NNE winds become more established
north of the Cape, as the front bisects the waters. Seas build 2-4
ft Sunday night into Monday, up to 5 ft offshore in the Gulf Stream.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and storms forecast to develop
across the area through the afternoon/evening, producing tempo
IFR/MVFR conditions. Initial development will be along the coast,
with the east coast sea breeze already pushing westward, and then
greatest storm potential will shift inland from mid afternoon and
through sunset, where boundary collisions are favored. However,
steering winds out of the west may push some convection back
toward the coast through the late afternoon/evening hours.

Have tempo groups for MVFR TSRA impacts for most TAF sites,
ranging from 18-21Z for KDAB/KTIX/KMLB, 18-20Z at KVRB/KFPR,
18-19Z at KSUA, and 21-24Z KMCO/KSFB/KISM. Less confidence in TSRA
at KLEE, as greatest storm chances remain east of this site, but
still have VCTS mentioned. Some extensions or additional tempo
groups may be needed should convection linger or shift back
toward the coast later in the afternoon/evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  87  74  86 /  50  70  40  80
MCO  74  92  75  90 /  40  70  30  80
MLB  74  89  75  88 /  50  70  50  80
VRB  73  90  73  90 /  50  70  60  80
LEE  74  90  74  87 /  30  60  20  70
SFB  74  90  75  88 /  40  70  30  80
ORL  75  91  75  89 /  40  70  30  80
FPR  71  91  72  90 /  50  70  60  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Weitlich