536
FXUS64 KMOB 221201
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
701 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 700 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

  - Tropical storm force wind gusts and coastal flooding is
    impacting immediate coastal areas this morning with another
    round of minor coastal flooding likely Thursday morning.

  - Dangerous and life-threatening beach conditions will persist
    through Thursday.

  - Heat will build over the weekend into early next week and Heat
    Advisories or Excessive Heat warnings may become necessary.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Forecast overall remains on track. Tropical Storm Bertha has begun
to weaken this morning due to increasingly northerly shear. However,
we are still seeing gusts of 40-50 mph occur along the coast,
especially in the passing bands of light to moderate showers. The
wind gusts should gradually lessen as we go through the day and
the center of Bertha moves west of our area. As the day
progresses, we will coordinate with NHC on the appropriate time
to cancel the Tropical Storm Warning. We are still likely to see a
very breezy day along the coast through this afternoon with
frequent gusts of 30-35 mph given the persistent onshore flow.

Area tide gages in Pensacola Bay, Mobile Bay, and MS Sound have
reached 2 to 2.5 ft MHHW, which indicates there are likely areas
of minor coastal flooding. This will persist over the next couple
of hours through the high tide cycle. We are still likely to see
another round of minor coastal flooding near high tide Thursday
morning, especially in Mobile Bay with a persistent southerly flow
continuing.

The High Surf Warning continues. Wave heights peaked around 14 ft
at Buoy 42012 south of Orange Beach. Surf heights of 8-12 ft at
the beaches will persist through early this evening before
beginning to subside.

Slightly adjusted rain chances and temperatures today to match
trends and the latest hi-res guidance. Heat indices will climb to
the 100-107 degree range today, likely highest over interior SW AL
and SE MS. Scattered to numerous showers will develop through the
course of the day. A few thunderstorms are possible with peak
heating. HRRR does show 2000-2500 J/kg CAPE this afternoon, but a
warm layer aloft may preclude thunderstorm development. 34/JFB

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

The main story through the period is Tropical Storm Bertha with
maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and is located about 80 miles
south of Mobile. It is currently moving west at 6 mph parallel to
the Gulf Coast with the center staying in our offshore waters.
Current wave heights are 9.2 feet south of Orange Beach (Buoy
42012).

...THROUGH THURSDAY...

Heat index values are just below the Heat Advisory threshold, but
still very warm peaking at 107. The eastern half of our area will
have more clouds and precipitation allowing for slightly lower heat
index values in the upper 90s to low 100s. Anybody outdoors should
drink plenty of water and take breaks in A/C when possible.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all land zones on the
immediate coast and nearshore/offshore waters of Alabama and
northwest Florida. Our main impacts with Bertha are gusty winds,
increasing wave heights, and an increased rip current risk.

Inundation is possible with the strong onshore flow combined with
high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 10 am Thursday
for all area coastal areas and bays. Minor flooding of 1-3 feet
above normally dry ground is expected especially for vulnerable
low lying areas and typical trouble spots like Dauphin Island and
Fort Pickens.

Widespread flooding issues are not expected with this tropical
system with storm totals of 1-2" with localized areas receiving up
to 4". The highest coverage of precipitation will be just along the
immediate coast and mainly offshore. Our moisture content remains
elevated with PWATs of 2.3-2.4" which introduces enhanced rain
rates, but nothing more than very localized flooding is expected for
the remainder of the event.

...FRIDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...

After Bertha departs to the west, we are on the eastern periphery of
a building upper ridge under generally northerly flow aloft through
the end of the week and into the weekend. This brings rain chances
to a more normal summertime pattern with daily chances for isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially along the sea
breeze and resultant outflow boundaries. We switch into northwest
flow aloft this weekend into the beginning of next week between the
ridge to the west and the upper trough digging into the eastern US.
This could bring organized convection down into our area, so this is
something to watch through the weekend. Heat headlines could also be
possible the beginning of next week as temperatures are projected to
increase into the mid to upper 90s depending on the strength of the
ridge.

...BEACH FORECAST...

Dangerous and life-threatening beach conditions are expected through
mid week. The rip current risk HIGH for our Alabama and northwest
Florida beaches and will last through Thursday before dropping to
MODERATE Friday through Saturday. Guidance shows surf peaking
through Wednesday morning before slowly beginning to taper off. A
High Surf Warning is in effect for surf heights up to 8-12 feet
through 6 am Thursday for all Alabama and northwest Florida
beaches.

SS/97

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Mainly MVFR conditions are expected through the period near the
coast, with mostly VFR conditions inland. Rainbands associated
with Tropical Storm Bertha may briefly lower visibilities to MVFR
or lower. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the
afternoon. Northeast winds across western areas and southeast
winds across eastern areas will gradually shift to southeasterly
or southerly through the day as Bertha moves west. Expect wind
speeds of 15-25 knots with gusts to around 30-35 knots near the
coast, and generally 10-15 knots inland. Winds should gradually
wane through the overnight, but remaining over 10 knots near the
coast. JGC/98

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Tropical Storm Bertha is located approximately 80 miles south of
Mobile with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and moving west at 6
mph. Waves with this system peak around 10 to 15 feet through
Wednesday evening before subsiding. Tropical storm force winds are
impacting the Gulf waters and will decrease to moderate southerly
winds by Thursday morning. After the system departs, light
southwesterly to westerly winds begin Thursday night and continue
through the weekend. SS/97

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      89  77  90  76 /  60  40  50  10
Pensacola   88  80  90  78 /  70  40  30   0
Destin      87  81  89  79 /  70  20  20   0
Evergreen   91  74  91  73 /  50  20  30   0
Waynesboro  93  76  91  73 /  40  20  50  20
Camden      91  75  89  74 /  50  10  40  20
Crestview   89  76  91  73 /  70  20  20   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ263>266.

     Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Warning until 6 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Warning until 6 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$