433
FXUS64 KMOB 291833
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1233 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

 - Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small
   craft over the open Gulf waters through Saturday morning, and
   possibly from late Monday night into early Tuesday evening as
   well.

 - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at
   area beaches through Monday. A high rip current risk is
   expected for Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Now through Saturday...

KEY MESSAGES...

 - Moderate easterly flow will create hazardous conditions for small
craft over open Gulf and some protected waters into Sunday morning,
and possibly from late Monday night into early Tuesday evening as
well.

 - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at area
beaches through Monday. A high rip current risk is expected for
Monday night and Tuesday.

 - A series of passing systems may bring strong storms local ponding
of water to the area Monday night into Tuesday, then again friday
into the weekend.

Upper level shortwave energy ahead of a deep upper trough has dug
south over the western Conus the end of work week. Zonal upper flow
has set up over the Southeast, keeping most of the upper shortwave
energy well north of the forecast area as it moves east over the
Eastern Conus, though a series of weaker shortwaves move across the
region later tonight into Sunday night. Another deeper shortwave
trough moves over the Southeast Monday through Tuesday, though the
bulk of the energy is kept north of the Gulf coast. Surface high
pressure north of the forecast area has moved to the East Coast at
this time, restoring modest onshore flow to the forecast area,
though better return west of the area, over the Lower Mississippi
River Valley. The airmass over the forecast area has moistened a bit
on the SPC mesoanalysis (precipitable h20 values of 0.30-0.55"), and
is expected to continue to moisten, rising to around 1.3-1.5"
Sunday. A cold front moves over the forecast area late Sunday into
Sunday night in response to the passing upper energy, eventually
stalling over the northern Gulf by Monday. Guidance is advertising a
surface low developing on the stalled surface front over the
northwestern Gulf Monday as the second shortwave trough approaches,
then moving northeast over/near the forecast area late Monday/Monday
night. Isentropic upglide showers develop ahead of the developing
surface low, with enough instability just north of the boundary and
points south for rumbles to mix in. With the inconsistency in the
guidance, have less confidence on where the rumbles occur. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms return for Thursday into the
weekend, though guidance varies on how fast the leading edge of the
precipitation moves over the forecast area Thursday into Thursday
night.

Taking a step back and looking at any rowdy weather through the
forecast, instability is modest (MUCapes < 1000J/kg) Sunday and
confined to the coast and south. Guidance is advertising some modest
upper divergence with the passing shortwave energy, along with Bulk
Wind Shear around 40kts coincident with the instability, mainly near
and south of the coast. Modest directional wind shear for spinners
will be confined to areas near the front, or south of the coast. For
Monday into Tuesday, guidance is advertising the stalled surface
boundary working its way north as a warm front over the northern
Gulf as the surface low approaches. Where this boundary ends up
varies. Some guidance has the boundary coming onshore to near the I-
10 corridor Monday night, with SBCapes of 1000-1500J/kg over land
areas (a bit higher south of the coast), 0-1km helicities topping
out near 200m^2/s^s over land areas, Bulk Wind shear near 50kts.
Some damaging winds and a few spinners are possible over our near
coastal areas Monday night, mainly over our Florida counties. North
of the coast, water issues in poor drainage areas are a possiblity,
though the more progressive nature of the passing system will help
to temper rainfall amounts. For the system the end of the week, any
rowdy storms are again expected to be over our coastal counties and
south, with upper support from a digging upper trough, instability
and wind shear coincident with the passing upper dynamics. Will need
to monitor. The biggest question is timing, with guidance varying
with the upper system`s passage.

Looking at high temperatures, low to mid 60s today see a tightening
temperatures gradient Sunday into Tuesday, with mid/upper 50s along
our northern border to around 70 along the coast. Mid 50s to low 60s
are expected Wednesday and Thursday, rising to around 60 north of
Highway 84 to around 70 along the coast. Low temperatures around 40
on the northwestern-most portions of the forecast area through
Monday see a drop into the upper 20s north of Highway 84 to around
40 along the coast Tuesday night. From there low temperatures see a
rise into the mid 40s well north of Highway 84 to low 50s south of I-
10 Friday night.

Moderate to strong, but directionally variable flow, will create a
Moderate to High Rip Risk most of the period into Tuesday night. A
low risk is then expected through mid week.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Southeasterly winds
around 10 knots this afternoon will shift to northeasterly 5 to 10
knots later tonight into Sunday morning.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Moderate to strong easterly winds diminish today and become
southeasterly. An offshore flow develops on Sunday as a cold
front moves through. The offshore flow becomes moderate to
occasionally strong Sunday night then becomes easterly on Monday.
An onshore flow develops Monday evening then switches to the
northwest Tuesday morning as another cold front moves through.
/16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Afternoon relative humidity values drop to 20-25% on Saturday over
interior southwest Alabama, south central Alabama, and a small
portion of the interior western Florida panhandle. 20 ft wind
speeds will remain below critical levels (around 10 mph), and the
Significant Fire Potential will be low so will just monitor at
this point. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      65  51  70  50 /   0  10  40  20
Pensacola   63  55  71  55 /   0   0  20  20
Destin      64  54  71  55 /   0   0  20  20
Evergreen   63  43  68  45 /   0   0  40  20
Waynesboro  60  45  59  41 /   0  30  60  30
Camden      59  43  60  42 /   0  10  50  20
Crestview   63  45  72  50 /   0   0  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$