183
FXUS64 KMOB 240623
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1223 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1221 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

  - Dense fog will result in hazardous travel through late morning
    Christmas Eve. Dense marine fog will likely persist through
    the entire day. Additional dense fog development is
    anticipated each evening through mid to late morning every day
    into next weekend.

  - Well above average temperatures are expected all week,
    including Christmas Day. A cold front brings an end to this
    warmth Sunday night.

  - A moderate risk of rip currents will be in place through
    Wednesday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Widespread dense fog has overspread much of the forecast area and
will remain in place through late morning with widespread
visibilities less than one quarter of a mile. This will result in
hazardous travel through late Christmas Eve morning before briefly
mixing out for the afternoon hours. Over Mobile Bay and the
Mississippi Sound, dense marine fog (less than one mile) will
likely persist through the day so hazardous boating conditions
will continue and may not lift for several days as middle to upper
60s dewpoints advect over the cooler waters in the middle 50s.
Dewpoint-water temperature spreads greater than 10 degrees usually
support dense sea fog less than one quarter of a mile. Therefore
the marine dense fog advisory will continue through the day
tomorrow and will likely be extended for several more days as the
pattern remains stagnant.

Dense fog will likely again develop over land areas during the
evening hours of Christmas Eve and result in visibilities again
dropping to one quarter of a mile or less. This again will result
in very hazardous driving conditions and may disrupt evening
holiday celebrations. These conditions will likely persist through
late morning Christmas Day before mixing out around midday. After
the fog dissipates, expect an unseasonably warm and dry Christmas
Day with high temperature reaching again into the middle to upper
70s along with humid conditions. High temperatures will remain
well above average as a strong upper ridge roughly 2 to 3 standard
deviations above mean values will extend across the Deep South.
This will keep high temperatures in the middle to upper 70s and
lows ranging from the middle 50s in the interior to lower 60s
along the immediate coast through the rest of the holiday week and
into next weekend.

The warm and dry afternoon weather conditions will likely
encourage many to visit our local beaches over the next few days.
If you are planning to visit the beach on Christmas Eve, remember
that there will continue to be a moderate risk of rip currents as
significant wave heights remain between 2 to 3 feet with swell
periods still averaging around 6 seconds. This should keep the rip
current risk elevate through Christmas Eve. The beaches will be
great to visit, just use caution if planning to enter the surf.
The rip current risk will drop to a low Christmas Eve night and
remain low through next weekend providing great beach conditions
both on the beach and in the surf from Christmas Day through
Sunday.

Latest ensemble guidance suggests a major pattern change by early
next week with a unseasonably strong upper level trough replacing
the strong ridge east of the Mississippi River. This will allow a
strong arctic cold front to bring an end to the warm weather as it
sweeps through the region Sunday night. Limited moisture ahead of
the front will keep any shower activity with the front scattered
at best. Dry and much colder temperatures will be likely early
next week with high temperatures dropping back into the middle 40s
to lower 50s. Low temperatures will drop well into the 20s in most
locations with below freezing temperatures all the way to the
beaches expected. Dry and below average temperatures should remain
in place through New Years Eve before gradually modifying towards
the end of next week. /JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

VLIFR conditions will persist area wide with dense fog across the
entirety of the area. Fog will steadily mix out throughout the
morning as IFR then VFR conditions return by the afternoon. Winds
will be light and variable. Fog will return tomorrow night with
likely LIFR to VLIFR cigs and visbys returning. BB-8

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Light and variable winds can be expected through Christmas Day.
Light southwesterly flow develops Christmas night and continues
through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Dense sea
fog will develop each night through the remainder of the week across
local area bays and sounds, as well as the nearshore Gulf waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      77  54  77  57 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   74  55  74  58 /   0   0   0  10
Destin      73  56  73  59 /   0   0   0  10
Evergreen   77  52  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  78  54  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      76  53  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   79  51  77  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for GMZ630>633-
     650-655.

     Dense Fog Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for GMZ630>632.

&&

$$