415
FXUS64 KMOB 302342
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
642 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 643 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- Thunderstorm chances increase again Friday afternoon through
  the weekend. A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging
  wind gusts, torrential rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground
  lightning.

- A High Risk of rip currents is expected to return this weekend
  for all area beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1037 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The heat finally begins to relax as we enter a much more active
pattern for showers and thunderstorms late week into the weekend.
Upper troughing begins to nudge its way into the area as upper
ridging retreats westward, allowing for northerly flow aloft to
prevail through Friday night and more westerly flow around the
base of the trough this weekend. This will allow for several weak
shortwaves to track across the region over the next few days,
providing for daily scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. A surface cold front attempts to work its way
southward towards the area, but will likely hang up just north of
the forecast area. Today is the last day of heat advisories as
heat indices rise into the 108 to 112 range this afternoon, with
heat indices below criteria in the 100 to 105 range Friday
areawide. With that said, high temperatures top out in the middle
to upper 90`s today and upper 80`s to lower 90`s Friday and into
the weekend. Overnight lows stay hot in the middle to upper 70`s.

With the increase in coverage of showers and storms, there will
also be a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms any given
afternoon through this weekend. Some mid-level dry air begins
working its way into the area which should allow for more robust
downdrafts with any storms. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts
associated with these microbursts will be possible in any storm,
particularly as we get into the weekend. Shear is fairly weak, but
can`t rule out some loosely organized multi-cell clusters or
bowing segments. In addition to this, locally heavy rainfall is
likely with storms. If storms train over the same areas or decide
to sit over any given location for a prolonged period of time,
localized flash flooding could be possible.

As we head into next week the upper trough lifts out and we
gradually get upper ridging to work its way back into the area.
Afternoon highs warm into the lower to middle 90`s again and rain
chances diminish to more isolated to scattered coverage each day
next week.

A Moderate risk of rip currents continues today through Friday,
becoming a High risk of rip currents for all area beaches as we
get into the weekend. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through Friday afternoon. Scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected again Friday
afternoon and evening, temporarily reducing flight category and
potentially producing variable and strong wind gusts. Winds
generally out of the west around 5 to 10 knots relax to light and
variable tonight. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1037 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Light to moderate westerly winds becomes a moderate to
occasionally strong westerly to southwesterly flow for Saturday
night through Sunday before diminishing on Monday. Small Craft
should exercise caution this weekend, and forecast trends will be
monitored for the potential need of Small Craft Advisories at some
point this weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and storms
become possible through late week, with best chances this weekend.
MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  91  75  91 /  50  70  40  50
Pensacola   79  91  77  89 /  30  70  60  60
Destin      80  90  78  88 /  40  60  60  80
Evergreen   73  90  72  88 /  40  70  60  80
Waynesboro  75  91  73  91 /  40  70  30  40
Camden      74  89  73  86 /  30  60  50  70
Crestview   75  91  73  88 /  40  80  60  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>053-059-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

$$