822
FXUS64 KMOB 141122
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
622 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

High pressure both at the surface and in the upper levels of the
atmosphere will remain centered over the area through Tuesday.
Light northwesterly to northerly flow will advect slightly drier
air aloft and along with increased subsidence should support deep
afternoon mixing both Monday and Tuesday afternoon`s. This should
allow for lowering dewpoints and hotter temperatures during this
period. High temperatures will likely be a few degrees hotter
early this week with middle to upper 90s expected. Lows will
remain warm as well with increased humidity overnight. Due to deep
mixing, heat indices should remain between 100 and 105 degrees
Monday afternoon and 102 to 107 degrees on Tuesday afternoon. We
will need to keep a close eye on dewpoints the next few days to
ensure that heat advisory conditions are not met, especially
Tuesday. This potential will be closely monitored over the next
few days.

Otherwise, the higher concern for potential high impact weather will
come for the second half of the week. Latest ensemble guidance
continues to suggest that a developing surface low pressure off the
coast of South Carolina this evening should retrograde southwest and
west towards the east coast of Florida tomorrow and across the
Florida Peninsula Monday night through Tuesday morning. As this
feature emerges off the west coast of Florida into the northeast
Gulf conditions appear increasingly favorable for the development of
a tropical system. At this time, there still remains uncertainty
regarding how well the system can consolidate a low level center.
Depending upon its ability to organize, it will be possible for it
to develop. Once again, overall confidence in both development and
track remain low, but this is something to closely monitor over the
next few days as it could result in hazardous high impact weather in
our area if development and intensification occurs and it tracks
close enough to our area. Regardless, it appears that increasing
winds and dangerous rip current conditions appear more likely for
the middle to end of the week if nothing else than a tightened
pressure gradient. Continue to monitor the latest forecast and we
will continue to provide additional updates. /JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.
Light and variable winds this morning, will become westerly to
northwesterly by the afternoon hours. Winds along the coast should
turn more southwesterly as the sea breeze pushes inland. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Light offshore flow will continue each day through Tuesday as a
surface gradually moves westward over the northern Gulf. Chances
for showers and thunderstorms will be lower early this week due
to enhanced subsidence. High impact weather may develop over our
marine areas for the second half of the week as a potential
tropical cyclone could bring increased rain, wind, and seas.
Confidence remains low regarding development, therefore continue
to monitor the latest coastal forecast over the next couple of
days for any updates. /JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      95  74  96  75  94  74  88  74 /  30  10  40  20  80  60  90  50
Pensacola   95  78  96  78  92  77  88  78 /  20  10  30  40  80  60  90  50
Destin      92  81  95  79  88  79  89  80 /  10  10  40  50  80  60  90  50
Evergreen   96  74  97  74  93  73  91  73 /  10  10  20  30  60  30  80  30
Waynesboro  95  73  97  74  96  72  91  73 /  20  10  20  10  50  30  80  20
Camden      94  74  96  75  94  74  91  73 /  10  10  10  20  50  30  70  20
Crestview   97  74  98  74  92  73  89  74 /  30  10  60  30  90  40 100  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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