915
FXUS64 KMOB 201717
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1217 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1216 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

  - Tropical Storm Watch in effect for coastal zones and waters.
    Storm Surge Watch in effect for coastal Alabama. Locally heavy
    rainfall may be possible near the coast through mid week.

  - High risk of rip currents begins this evening for western
    Florida Panhandle and Alabama beaches. High Surf Warning in
    effect starting Tuesday afternoon into early evening.

  - Heat Advisory in effect for southeast Mississippi until 7 pm
    Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Tropical Depression Two which is currently located about 120 miles
south of Panama City, Florida, is expected to strengthen to a
tropical storm later today. The system is forecast to move
across the far offshore waters of Alabama and the western Florida
panhandle Tuesday into Tuesday night before exiting to the west.
Please see the National Hurricane Center for the latest on
Tropical Depression Two. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect
for coastal portions of Alabama and the western Florida
panhandle. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for coastal Alabama
for storm surge heights potentially reaching 2-4 feet during
periods of high tide Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Storm surge
heights of 1-3 feet will be possible along coastal portions of the
western Florida panhandle. Have issued a High Surf Advisory for
surf heights building to around 10 feet across beach areas. The
High Surf Advisory begins at 1 pm Tuesday for the western Florida
panhandle and at 7 pm for Alabama and continues until 6 am
Thursday, by which time surf heights should have sufficiently
subsided. A High Risk of rip currents comes in effect this evening
and continues until dropping to a moderate risk on Friday.

There is a marginal potential for some localized flooding concerns
mainly over the coastal areas through much of the week. Will have
slight chance to chance pops for the southern portion of the area
mainly this evening then for Tuesday have gone with likely to
categorical pops east of I-65 tapering to low pops across
interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama. As
the tropical system continues off to the west on Wednesday, will
have chance to likely pops roughly along and east of I-65 with
slight chance pops elsewhere. For Thursday on into Sunday, have
gone with chance to likely pops each day as abundant deep layer
moisture looks to be in place in an otherwise summertime pattern.
A Heat Advisory remains in effect for southeast Mississippi until
7 pm Tuesday for heat index values up to 110. Elsewhere, heat
index values of 100-107 are anticipated. It`s possible that the
Heat Advisory may need to be extended into portions of southwest
Alabama on Tuesday as heat index values reach criteria of 108 in a
few spots, but this looks limited in scope at this point. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected over most of the area through tonight.
As TD2/Bertha approaches the area Tuesday, bands of showers and
thunderstorms will bring local drops to mid/upper MVFR levels. North
winds 5 to 10 knots will shift to northeasterly as they increase to
10 to 15 knots Tuesday morning.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Tropical Depression Two is expected to strengthen to a tropical
storm and move across the far offshore waters of Alabama and the
western Florida panhandle Tuesday into Tuesday night before exiting
to the west. Tropical storm force winds will impact the Gulf waters
Tuesday through Wednesday. Waves with this system peak at 10 to 15
feet Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening before subsiding.
/29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  94  76  93 /  20  40  40  60
Pensacola   76  90  78  91 /  30  80  60  60
Destin      77  89  80  90 /  40  90  70  60
Evergreen   73  91  74  91 /  20  60  30  50
Waynesboro  75  96  76  96 /  10  20  20  20
Camden      74  91  75  91 /  10  20  10  20
Crestview   73  90  75  91 /  20  90  60  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Tropical Storm Watch for ALZ263>266.

     Storm Surge Watch for ALZ265-266.

     High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM CDT this evening through late
     Thursday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Warning from 7 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CDT Thursday for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...Tropical Storm Watch for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM CDT this evening through late
     Thursday night for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Warning from 1 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CDT Thursday for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$