036
FXUS64 KMOB 041730
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances increase today through the
  weekend. Any storms may produce gusty winds and torrential
  rainfall, with isolated flooding possible.

- Waterspouts are possible with any storms over the marine waters
  each morning, primarily from the pre-dawn hours through mid-
  morning.

- Peak heat index values of around 100-107 are expected through at
  least Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

A upper high pressure over the western Carolinas weakens by this
evening. The upper ridge retrogrades west and centers itself over
the Great Plains where it remains through the weekend. At the
same time, the upper trough over the eastern US deepens and digs
into the coastal Southeast. Beginning next week, an upper high
strengthens over the Great Plains then advances east and we end up
on the southern periphery with easterly flow.

There is significant deep layer moisture with the entire atmospheric
column close to fully saturated. We have deep easterly to
southeasterly flow thanks to the tropical wave across the northern
Gulf and a very weak upper low funneling plenty of moisture into the
area. PWATs have increased quite high to 2.3-2.5". In fact the
latest 12Z LIX sounding shows 2.46" which is well above the 90th
percentile of 2.13" based on sounding climatology. Ensembles show
this deep moisture plume of 2+ inch PWATs persisting through at
least Monday.

The activity from the marine waters this morning drifts north and is
acting as an additional focus for more convection inland this
afternoon along with the seabreeze. Rain chances remain elevated
through at least Monday with such enhanced moisture. Isolated to
scattered storms are possible each morning which carry a waterspout
risk. During the afternoon hours, scattered to numerous storms are
possible. A complex of storms could come through on Sunday with the
troughing coming down the East Coast and the ridge retrograding. We
will have good instability, slightly increased shear with the trough
closer, and of course plenty of moisture should it reach our area.
Any showers and storms will have very heavy rainfall with flooding
possible where storms move over the same areas and localized gusty
winds possible.

We will continue to have above normal temperatures in the low to mid
90s with some upper 90s possible Sunday and Monday, especially in
southeast Mississippi. Afternoon dewpoints will hold generally in
the low 70s inland and the mid 70s along the coast. Heat index
values look to continue to be just below the Heat Advisory threshold
of 108 for the weekend and into next week, with maximum values of
100-107 for much of the area each day. Low temperatures bring some
overnight relief with values in the low 70s for a majority of the
area with mid 70s just along the coast.

...BEACH FORECAST...

The rip current risk will continue to be low for all area beaches in
Florida and Alabama. Outside of any storms, surf heights remain
generally 1 to potentially 2 feet through the mid next week.

SS/97

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail outside of scattered to
numerous showers and storms at times through this afternoon. Brief
reductions to IFR/MVFR conditions will be possible in and around
thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms will decrease overnight
before redeveloping Saturday morning. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

A generally light east to southeast flow pattern will become
southwesterly westerly this weekend through Monday. A light to
moderate easterly to southeasterly flow returns Tuesday through late
next week. Rain chances will increase through the weekend with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms during the morning
hours. A few waterspouts will be possible each morning. SS/97

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  90  73  91 /  30  50  10  50
Pensacola   77  89  76  90 /  20  50  20  50
Destin      78  87  78  89 /  20  40  20  40
Evergreen   72  93  70  95 /  10  50  20  50
Waynesboro  72  93  71  95 /  20  50  20  50
Camden      73  93  73  95 /  20  60  20  50
Crestview   73  91  73  93 /  20  70  10  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$