292
FXUS64 KMOB 061752
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1252 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

A weak upper Atlantic ridge will build eastward over the Deep
South and northern Gulf through Tuesday as the long wave trough
passes over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley Tuesday night.
Several more bands of rain with isolated thunderstorms will
continue to move northward over the forecast area through Tuesday.
We will continue to have some localized, mainly nuisance type,
flooding potential where training of the heavier showers and
thunderstorms occur. We are only expecting isolated daytime
showers and a storm or two on Wednesday. An upper shortwave is
expected to form Wednesday afternoon, generally over Missouri, and
move southeastward over our region on Thursday. This will send an
associated weak cold front into our area that could become a
focus for an increase in showers and thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon. The GFS continues to send a line of showers and storms
southward into south-central Alabama and the western Florida
Panhandle Thursday afternoon, so again increased precipitation
chances slightly above the NBM PoPs to include a chance of
showers and storms. We may need to increase these PoPs further as
we get closer to the event. Dry conditions should then prevail
through the remainder of the forecast.

Beach Forecast: The rip current risk remains HIGH through Tuesday
night with a MODERATE risk expected through midweek. The rip
current MOS guidance indicates another bump in the rip current
risk to HIGH on Friday for most of our beaches, so updated the
afternoon Surf Zone Forecast with this increased high potential.
/22

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

A mixed bag of MVFR to VFR conditions with MVFR near the
coast and VFR further inland. Patchy instances of IFR visbys are
occurring along the immediate coastline with scattered showers and an
occasional thunderstorm. Storms should slowly subside and drift
northwestward this afternoon with mostly VFR conditions returning to
the area. Showers and storms will likely return to the immediate
coastline after midnight tonight leading to temporarily reduced
visibilities. IFR to MVFR ceilings are expected to develop from the
northwest tonight and spread southward to the coast by early
tomorrow morning. Winds will remain light out of the east throughout
the forecast. BB-8

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

The winds and seas have lowered below Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
conditions. Therefore, the SCA was will be allowed to expire at 1
PM. However, small craft operators should exercise caution over
the Gulf. No significant impacts to small craft are expected
through Tuesday outside of locally higher winds/seas and reduced
visibilities associated with occasional showers and thunderstorms.
Advisory level conditions are possible late in the week as a
front potentially slides across the Gulf. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  85  70  88  68  86  64  81 /  30  50  20  20  10  20  10   0
Pensacola   73  84  73  88  71  86  66  80 /  40  40  10  20  10  20  20   0
Destin      73  86  74  87  72  85  66  80 /  30  20  10  10  10  20  20   0
Evergreen   68  88  69  90  66  86  60  80 /  40  40  20  20  10  30  20   0
Waynesboro  68  86  68  85  63  84  61  79 /  30  30  30  20   0  10   0   0
Camden      68  87  68  87  64  83  60  77 /  30  30  20  20  10  30  10   0
Crestview   69  87  68  89  67  86  61  79 /  40  20  10  20  10  20  20   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ650-
     655-670-675.

&&

$$

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