132
FXUS64 KMOB 040620
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
120 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 111 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

 - HIGH risk of rip currents through Saturday night for the
   coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Surf builds to
   5-6 feet through Friday. High surf combined with high tide
   will lead to overwash and minor inundation issues along the
   coast on Thursday and Friday.

 - Small craft conditions persist through Saturday.

 - Rain chances increase this weekend, particularly over the
   western half of the local area. Heavy rainfall is possible,
   which could lead to more flooding concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

High pressure over the Appalachians is allowing for a cold air
damming (CAD) pattern to setup across the Southeast US today. As
this occurs, an anomalously dry airmass will continue to filter in
from the northeast. In fact, dew points over the past couple
hours have quickly dropped into the 50s across much of the local
area. Throughout the morning, dew points may lower into the mid to
upper 40s for interior areas. Morning lows will also be noticably
cooler today, with temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s
inland and mid to upper 60s along the coast. Dry conditions will
persist through the day today and into tonight, with highs in the
low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s tonight.

The pattern quickly changes on Friday and into the weekend as a non-
tropical surface trough/low attempts to form along a stationary
front south of Louisiana. As this feature lifts northward, deep
moisture (PWATs between 2.0-2.3 inches) will also surge back to the
north. Looking aloft, upper ridging will build over Florida while
shortwave troughs lift across the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi River
Valley region. These upper features may help to set up a rather
noticeable gradient across our local area, where locations
generally west of the Tombigbee River may experience multiple
rounds of heavy rainfall this weekend, while locations to the east
are drier due to subsident effects from the nearby ridge. Not
anticipating any severe weather at this time due to shear values
remaining very low. That being said, storms that do develop over
our western zones would likely be slow-moving, and with very high
PWATs in place, storms will likely be efficient rainfall
producers. If any boundaries are able to set up and storms are
able to train over the same locations, then a heavy rainfall/flash
flooding threat may materialize for this weekend, especially
considering the copious amounts of rainfall we have seen over the
past couple weeks. We will continue to monitor trends closely. We
should return back to a more typical summertime pattern by early
next week, with scattered afternoon storms developing each day.

The biggest concern we have over the next few days is with regards
to beach conditions. Strong easterly winds have developed over our
marine zones and will turn a bit more southeasterly by tonight.
This will allow for a High Risk of Rip Currents to continue
through Saturday, slowly decreasing to moderate for Sunday as
winds decrease. A High Surf Advisory is also in effect through
Friday night for large, breaking waves of 5-6 feet. Lastly,
although coastal flooding is not anticipated at this time, the
stronger winds and high surf, combined with high tide, may
promote overwash into some of our typical trouble spots today and
Friday, such as Fort Pickens, Dauphin Island, and northern
portions of Mobile Bay. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Thursday evening.
Easterly winds up to 5-10 knots at the coast, lower further
inland, increase to 10-15 knots on Thursday. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Easterly flow prevails through Thursday. Small craft conditions
develop early this morning in the strengthening easterly flow and
persist through Friday across the bays, waterways, and Gulf
waters. Onshore flow develops Friday through early next week.
Expect locally higher winds and seas near thunderstorms. BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      83  67  84  72 /   0  10  30  40
Pensacola   83  71  84  74 /   0  10  20  40
Destin      85  72  84  74 /   0  10  20  30
Evergreen   83  61  87  67 /   0   0   0  10
Waynesboro  83  62  86  68 /   0   0  10  20
Camden      82  61  86  67 /   0   0   0  10
Crestview   84  63  88  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ630>634-655-
     675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for GMZ635-636.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT Friday night for GMZ650-
     670.

&&

$$