107
FXUS64 KMOB 292348
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
648 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 644 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Very hot conditions continue with an Extreme Heat Warning for
  coastal areas and Heat Advisory for the remainder of the area
  today. Another Heat Advisory will go into effect Thursday for
  much of the area.

- High Risk of rip currents is expected to return by this weekend
  for all area beaches.

- Daily afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances increase
  through the end of the week and into the weekend. A few storms
  may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, heavy
  rainfall, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The current forecast is on track and no updates are needed. /13

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A couple more days of hot temperatures and high heat indices
persist across the region as highs top out in the upper 90`s to
near 100 today and middle 90`s Thursday. An Extreme Heat Warning
remains in effect through 9pm this evening for coastal portions of
the area where heat indices will remain high near 113. Elsewhere
today, a Heat Advisory remains in effect through 9pm with heat
indices as high as 112. Isolated to scattered showers and storms
may develop later this afternoon into the early evening, providing
some temporary relief from the heat for locations that see any
storms. Similar to yesterday, any storms that develop will have
the potential to produce microbursts with strong to locally
damaging wind gusts.

Thursday we will begin to see a pattern change as upper troughing
begins to influence the area more and we become better aligned
with upper level northerly flow. This should allow for some
shortwaves to push their way into the area and serve as a focus
for afternoon into evening scattered to numerous shower and
thunderstorm development. At least the eastern half of the area
stands to see the greatest chances for this, which should help
temper afternoon highs and heat indices for portions of south-
central Alabama. Elsewhere, hot afternoon temperatures combined
with mid-70`s dewpoints should allow for one more day of Heat
Advisory criteria heat indices near 108. Given this, we have went
forward with a Heat Advisory from 11am to 7pm Thursday for all of
southeast Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the Florida
Panhandle. Little relief can be expected overnight with lows only
falling into the middle to upper 70`s, with lower 80`s along the
immediate coast. Once again, any storms that develop will have the
potential to produce microbursts with strong to locally damaging
wind gusts.

As we head into Friday and the weekend, upper troughing continues
to build in with several shortwaves rounding the base of the
trough. Any residual boundaries left over from previous days
storms will likely serve as a focus for redevelopment each
afternoon with the current anticipation for numerous showers and
thunderstorms each day. While shear values aren`t amazing, there
will be just enough present in combination with ample instability
to potentially support some loosely organized thunderstorms in the
form of multi-cells and perhaps a couple bowing segments. Primary
hazards with storms any given afternoon will be damaging wind
gusts in addition to locally heavy rainfall.

We remain under the influence of upper troughing through at least
early next week, with upper ridging making an attempt to begin
building in once again by the middle of next week. We will likely
hang on to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon, gradually tapering in coverage by the middle of next
week.

We continue to anticipate the development of numerous strong rip
currents as we head into the weekend for our local beaches. A Low
risk for the Alabama coast and Moderate risk for the Florida
Panhandle coast continues through Thursday evening, becoming a
Moderate risk for all beaches Friday. The risk will gradually ramp
up to a High Saturday into Sunday. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR conditions prevail through Thursday morning before scattered
showers and storms redevelop with brief periods of reduced
ceilings and visbys. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Light to moderate westerly flow prevails across the marine area
through the upcoming weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms become possible through late week, with best chances this
weekend. Locally higher winds and waves can be expected in or near
any thunderstorms. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      77  94  75  91 /  20  60  50  80
Pensacola   79  93  78  91 /  20  60  40  70
Destin      80  91  79  90 /  20  60  50  60
Evergreen   76  93  73  91 /  30  60  40  60
Waynesboro  76  95  74  93 /  20  60  30  60
Camden      75  93  73  91 /  30  30  20  40
Crestview   75  94  74  93 /  30  70  40  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>264.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ051>053-059-
     261>266.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201-203-205.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ201>206.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$