074
FXUS64 KMOB 171147
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
547 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 541 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

 - Risk for rip currents may increase to a high risk late in the
   week ahead of the next chance for showers and storms.

 - Rain chances gradually increase into the weekend; however,
   drought conditions are expected to continue across the area
   until the rain arrives.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1137 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Dry and mild conditions continue next week as upper level high
pressure slowly builds over the area. High pressure looks to be in
control through Thursday with mainly a temperature forecast
through the week. A subtle backdoor cold front is currently
working across Alabama as dewpoints are slowly dropping across our
northwest. Otherwise, temperatures will remain well above normal
floating around in the upper 70s to low 80s most of the week and
possibly floating around some daily record highs. Lows will
gradually increase each day as low level flow steadily turns more
southerly and dewpoints begin to increase. Expect lows to start
off in the mid to upper 50s and climb into the 60s by the end of
the week. The only hazard we will likely deal with each night will
be the potential for patchy fog as moisture increases and calm
cool nights allow for maximized radiational cooling.

The next chance for rain arrives late in the week as the next
upper trough digs into the central US. In response to the upper
trough, the ridge will amplify across the area and southerly
moisture transport will steadily increase Thursday through Friday.
The upper trough is expected to eject across the Mid-Mississippi
valley into the Great Lakes Region. This trough and jet
progression will likely leave us on the outside looking in on any
substantial rain as the best diffluence is off to our northwest.
Given the current progression, rain and storms would likely be
hard to come by and that is even noted with mostly scattered
storms and NBM probability of lightning only being around 20%
despite increased instability across the area. The forecast
becomes a little more uncertain with the evolution of the second
upper trough/cutoff low. Guidance is still rather complicated as
we head into Sunday as the lead cold front hangs up across the
deep south. While the pattern will remain rather active, exact
rain chances and potential for any storms will likely not be
ironed out for a couple of days. So for now we are just going to
continue to monitor the situation.

Rip current probabilities continue to indicate that a potential
rise to a MODERATE risk for all beaches on Thursday afternoon into
the weekend. BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Except for a few localized spots, fog and lower ceilings
struggled to materialize this morning. Although a few brief
reductions to MVFR or IFR remain possible through around 14z, VFR
conditions should remain prevalent through much of the period.
Fog may attempt to develop late Monday night. Light northeasterly
winds this morning will turn southeasterly by the afternoon. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1137 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Light easterly flow will develop on Monday. A light southeasterly
flow prevails for Tuesday and Wednesday, then becomes light to
moderate on Thursday and becomes southerly on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      79  59  79  59 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   76  61  76  62 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      76  60  75  63 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   79  50  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  77  56  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      75  51  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   79  50  80  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$