936
FXUS64 KMOB 201746
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1146 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1131 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

 - Areas of dense fog will be possible across southeastern
   Mississippi and southwest Alabama again tonight into Thursday
   morning. Patchy dense fog will be possible each morning through
   the end of the week.

 - Risk for rip currents will increase late in the week ahead of
   the next chance for showers and storms.

 - Rain chances gradually increase into the weekend; however,
   drought conditions are expected to continue across the area
   until the rain arrives.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1122 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

KEY MESSAGES...

 - Areas of dense fog will be possible across the area again tonight
into Thursday morning. Patchy dense fog will be possible Thursday
night, mainly southeast of Interstate 65.

 - Risk for rip currents may increase to a high risk late in the
week ahead of the next chance for showers and storms.

 - Rain chances gradually increase into the weekend; however,
drought conditions are expected to continue across the area until
the rain arrives.

An upper ridge stretches north over the eastern Conus with an upper
trough digs over the western Conus into the end of the week. Energy
from the western upper trough ejects today, flowing through
the flow over the eastern upper ridge, helping to deamplify the
ridge in the process. The ridge keeps the bulk of the energy north
of the forecast area into the coming weekend, though. The ridge also
helps to maintain a surface ridge stretching southwest along the
East coast. This surface ridge in concert with a developing surface
low over the Plains increases onshore flow over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley, then the Southeast the end of the week
into the weekend before a cold front crosses these regions Friday
night into Saturday. Precipitable h20 values creep up to around 1.7"
ahead of the approaching front. Rain returns to the forecast area
Friday, lasting into the weekend in response, though with the better
upper dynamics passing north of the forecast area, the resultant
higher PoPs occur over northwestern portions of the forecast area
Friday/Friday night. The risk of any rowdy storms Friday/Friday
night is low, with limited instability (MUCapes < 800J/kg) along
with meh wind shear (Bulk Wind shear <=32kts). The more progressive
nature of the passing upper dynamics will also help to limit any
water issues. Another passing round of energy will bring showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday night,
but with the bulk of the upper energy again being deflected north of
the forecast area, the risk of rowdy storms remains low.

Fog development is likely tonight, with enough mixing combined with
a very moist boundary developing as temperatures cool overnight. A
Dense Fog Advisory is in effect tonight, starting at 04z/10pm, for
the entire forecast area. Increasing surface winds Thursday night
will help to limit fog development, with patchy fog limited to areas
southeast of I-65 Thursday night, with lighter boundary layer winds
expected.

Upper subsidence from the upper ridge will keep temperatures well
above seasonal norms through the forecast. High temperatures
in the upper 70s to low 80s well inland, mid 70s south of I-10 to
the coast are expected through the Monday. There is a bit of a drop
for Tuesday with the increase in precipitation. Low temperatures see
an upward creep through the rest of the week until the front`s
passage this coming  weekend. Mid 50s to around 60 expected
Wednesday night rise into the mid to upper 60s Friday night. Post
frontal, low temperatures drop into the low 50s north of Highway 84
to upper 50s south of I-10 Sunday night. Low temperatures see an
uptick into Tuesday. A cooling off mid week is possible mid week,
though guidance is inconsistent in passing cold front.

Onshore winds increase through the week, with the Rip Risk
increasing to Moderate to High Friday night through the weekend.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Mid-day satellite imagery shows patches of lingering low cigs left
over from morning fog. Heading into the afternoon, a few to
scattered bases 1-3 kft is anticipated. Vsby ok. Going into
tonight, a persistence type approach is considered with IFR/LIFR
cig bases returning. Restrictions to vsby a bit more challenging
tonight with the better signal for fog, perhaps dense more focused
along and north of I-10. Even so, have opted to include MVFR
vsbys by and after 21.03Z over the terminals with a small late
night tempo group of perhaps IFR categories. Winds light. /10

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1122 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Light to at times moderate onshore flow increases to
moderate this weekend. With light winds over Mobile Bay and nearby,
combined with cooler waters, dense fog is expected to develop
tonight and last into Thursday morning. A light to moderate post
frontal offshore flow comes to area waters Sunday. Onshore flow
returns early in the week as surface high pressure passes over and
moves east of area waters. No impacts expected other than locally
higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      77  62  79  64 /   0   0  40  10
Pensacola   75  65  77  68 /   0   0  10  10
Destin      75  65  76  68 /   0   0   0  10
Evergreen   83  56  81  63 /   0   0  20  20
Waynesboro  80  59  79  62 /   0  20  60  20
Camden      80  56  78  62 /   0   0  50  30
Crestview   81  56  79  63 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ630>634.

&&

$$