453
FXUS64 KMOB 151756
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1156 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1155 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

 - Patchy fog, possibly dense at times, is possible late tonight
   into Sunday morning south of the U.S. Highway 84 corridor.

 - Risk for rip currents may increase to a high risk late in the
   week ahead of the next chance for showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1155 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

The dry forecast pattern will persist through Thursday afternoon
as a dry northwesterly flow aloft becomes more zonal through early
next week, followed by upper ridging building over the region
Tuesday afternoon through midweek. An ejecting upper low pressure
area over southern California on Tuesday evolves into an upper
trough over the southern Rockies midweek, with the trough then
lifting northeastward over the central and southern Great Plains
Thursday afternoon into Friday. While there remains some slight
timing and placement differences between the GFS and ECMWF (with
the GFS being about 12 hours faster) the overarching theme here is
that we are only expecting a glancing blow with the base of the
trough passing over central Mississippi and northern Alabama. We
are still not making any adjustments to the National Blend of
Models (NBM) precipitation chances at this time, and we expect a
scattered showers and storms to move across the forecast area
Thursday night and Friday. Although not likely, there could be a
strong storm or two northwest of I-65 Friday afternoon due to
SFC-1km Cape values in the 300-500 J/kg range, coinciding with
SRF-1km Helicity values in the 100 to 150 m2/s2 range. These
values may increase, so we will need to monitor. There should be
some patchy fog, possibly dense at times, late tonight into
Sunday morning south of the U.S. Highway 84 corridor that we will
continue to monitor.

Both high and low temperatures will continue to trend higher
through Thursday of next week, with highs ranging from 75 to 80
degrees Sunday and Monday, with inland areas seeing some lower to
middle 80s creeping in Tuesday through midweek. Lows will range
from 53 to 57 degrees inland tonight and Sunday night, and from
57 to 62 degrees closer to the coast. Lows will be well above
normal through the remainder of next week, and could be as high as
16 to 21 degrees above normal Thursday night (ranging from 60 to
65 degrees) due to more established southerly wind flow ahead of
the next chance for showers and storms.

Beach Forecast - The rip current MOS probabilities continue to
indicate that the risk may briefly increase to MODERATE levels
along the Destin area beaches Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, the rip
current risk remains LOW through mid week. The probabilities
quickly increase Thursday to a MODERATE risk for all beaches, and
possibly to a HIGH risk Thursday night into Friday. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR flight category prevails across the region through this
evening. Overnight tonight through daybreak Sunday we will likely
contend with some patchy fog and low stratus across the region.
Stronger winds nearing 20 to 30 knots just above the surface
should confine the better chances for fog formation to river
valleys and localized low elevation areas that can effectively
decouple the boundary layer. An IFR to LIFR ceiling is expected to
develop across much of the area near or after midnight, likely
improving to MVFR and VFR flight category by mid morning. Winds
will remain out of the southeast to south this afternoon and
evening, turning southwest into the overnight at around 5 knots.
MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1155 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Small craft operators may need to exercise caution on Thursday
due to a moderate southeasterly wind flow along with building
seas. Until then, light southerly winds will shift southwesterly
this evening, followed by a light to occasionally moderate
westerly flow late tonight through Sunday. A light offshore flow
will briefly set up after midnight Sunday night before turning
easterly by noon on Monday. A light southeasterly flow will then
occur Monday afternoon through midweek, increasing to moderate on
Thursday. Patchy fog is possible late tonight into Sunday along
the immediate coast. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      56  78  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   61  76  60  76 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      61  75  60  75 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   53  80  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  54  79  54  77 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      54  78  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   53  78  53  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$