395
FXUS64 KMOB 251812
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1212 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1210 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

 - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
   damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a tornado or two remain
   possible early this morning through this evening.

 - Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small
   craft across the marine area mid to late week.

 - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at
   area beaches today and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

KEY MESSAGES...

 - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a tornado or two remain
possible through this evening.

 - Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small
craft across the marine area mid to late week.

 - There is a high risk of life threatening rip currents at area
beaches today and Wednesday.

A deep upper trough over the Mississippi River swings east over the
river through tonight before the embedded upper low over the Great
Lakes heads off. Shortwave energy moving through the base of the
trough moves over the Southeast today into Wednesday, with a cold
front moving over the Southeast today through Wednesday in response.
The cold front will cross the forecast area beginning late this
afternoon and be south of the marine portions of the forecast area
around sunrise Wednesday. Ahead of the front, the 12z SPC HREF has a
band of SBCapes over land in the 1500 J/kg range, with 0-1km
helicities of 90-120m^s/2^s initially this afternoon, shifting
southeast through the afternoon. RAP Bulk Shear values of 40-55kts
are coincident with the tongue of greater instability. Upper
divergence present earlier in the day has moved off, leaving little
upper support. A wildcard is some guidances advertising a cap
situated around 10k`, limiting vertical development. By the numbers,
damaging winds are possible, especially if the cap is broken and a
cell gets into drier air above the cap. Also, rotating storms are
possible, leading to an isolated tornado or two. Mid level lapse
rates are meh (<6.0C) but hail remains a possibility.

After Wednesday, post frontal cooler and drier air moves over the
forecast area with upper flow becoming a drier northwesterly into
Friday. The upper ridge flattens into the weekend as another series
of upper troughs move over the Southeast beginning Saturday. A cold
front moves over the forecast area Sunday into Sunday night,
ushering in a drier airmass. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
again this weekend ahead of the front. Some guidance is advertising
upglide showers early in the coming week as the front stalls just
south of the forecast area. Any rowdy storms are hard to pin down at
this time, with inconsistent moisture return and dynamics.

Temperatures well above seasonal norms see a drop to near or below
seasonal norms behind the first cold front tonight. High
temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 are expected today,
dropping to the mid to upper 50s for Friday. Some rebound occurs
over the weekend (mid 60s to around 70) but drop back into the mid
50s to low 60s over most of the forecast area for the beginning of
the coming week. Low temperatures see the same roller coaster,
dropping from mostly 50s tonight to upper 20s north of Highway 84 to
mid 30s south of I-10 Thursday night. With onshore flow becoming re-
established over the weekend, low temperatures rise into the mid 40s
to mid 50s for Saturday night. Temperatures drop into the around 40
to around 50 range for Monday night, with the slowing cold front
limiting the influx of colder air over the forecast area for the
beginning of the week.

Onshore winds increase through the week, with a moderate to high Rip
Risk today through Wednesday. The Rip Risk decreases into Friday,
but increases to High for the coming weekend.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

MVFR to VFR conditions with southerly winds of 10 to 20 knots and
gusty across the forecast area are expected to continue through the
afternoon into the evening ahead of a cold front expected to cross
the area tonight. Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms
may cause issues across the area, with strong and variable winds,
along with low end end MVFR or IFR conditions possible in the
stronger storms, Post fropa, strong northwesterly winds of 10 to 15
knots and gusty are expected for Wednesday.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

A moderate onshore flow continues ahead of an approaching
storm system from the west. A cold front will push through the
coastal waters tonight into Wednesday morning, with a moderate to
strong offshore flow developing in the wake of the front and
persisting through Friday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for
late Wednesday into Friday. Winds will become more easterly by
Saturday, but still in the moderate to strong range, as high
pressure moves into the Mid-Atlantic states.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      79  57  70  40 /  60  50   0   0
Pensacola   78  63  72  44 /  40  70   0   0
Destin      78  64  74  45 /  30  70  10   0
Evergreen   80  55  70  36 /  60  80   0   0
Waynesboro  79  52  65  36 /  70  30   0   0
Camden      78  53  64  35 /  80  80   0   0
Crestview   80  59  74  37 /  30  80  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to noon CST Friday for
     GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$