436
FXUS64 KMOB 281157
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
657 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

 - Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall leading to possible flash
   flooding will occur over the next several days.

 - HIGH Risk for Rip Currents through at least Friday for coastal
   Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Forecast generally remains on track this morning as the low clouds
and patchy fog continue to lift across the area. Visibility
bottomed out around 1/2 statue mile across much of the area with a
few spots occasionally dipping lower over the past 2-3 hours. The
next batch of showers and storms has already begun to develop to
our west over southeast Louisiana this morning. Expect showers and
storms to blossom over our area as we roll into the late morning
and afternoon hours, yet again, today. 07/mb

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

A southerly to southwesterly flow pattern aloft will continue
through Friday as our local area remains in between an upper ridge
over the western Atlantic and upper troughing over the
western/central US. As we have seen for several days now, embedded
shortwaves will move within this upper flow pattern, passing
over/near our local area. With forcing from the shortwaves moving
overhead, along with deep tropical moisture advecting in from the
Gulf (PWATs generally ranging around 1.8-2.1 inches) and strong
instability due to diurnal heating, shower and thunderstorm
development is expected to continue. Scattered storms will likely
develop during the mid to late morning hours over coastal
counties, and will become more numerous as they push inland. With
limited shear, the potential for organized severe weather remains
very low. That being said, as we typically see with pulse-type
storms, cannot rule out a few stronger storms capable of producing
gusty downburst winds and small hail. The main concern through
Friday will be heavy rainfall. The slow-moving nature of these
storms, as well as the deep moisture in place, will lead to storms
being efficient rainfall producers (rates potentially as high as
2-3 in/hr). If storms manage to train over the same areas,
especially over areas which have seen abundant rainfall over the
past week, then we could see localized instances of flash
flooding.

The upper-level pattern begins to change this weekend and into early
next week as upper troughing digs across the northeast US and into
the western Atlantic, helping to shunt the upper ridge farther into
the Atlantic. This will allow for winds aloft to transition to a
more westerly to northwesterly flow pattern. Embedded shortwaves
will continue to pass overhead and deep moisture will remain in
place, keeping showers and storms in the forecast through early next
week. One thing we always have to keep an eye on in northwesterly
flow patterns this time of year is if storms that develop upstream
are able to organize into MCSs and push down towards our local area.
Still a bit too far out for any specifics, but just something to
watch over the coming days. Rain chances may finally start to
decrease by midweek next week.

Highs will generally top out in the mid to upper 80s throughout the
period. Lows will be mild and humid, with temperatures only dropping
into the upper 60s to low 70s inland and the low to mid 70s closer
to the coast. Additionally, with saturated boundary-layer conditions
and light winds, cannot rule out the development of patchy fog
during the late night/early morning hours each day, particularly
over inland counties. A High Risk of rip currents will continue
through Friday, potentially lowering to a Moderate Risk for the
weekend. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

IFR/MVFR conditions will continue to improve to VFR over the next
hour to VFR visibility and MVFR ceilings. Winds will turn more
southerly through mid-morning. Another round of showers and
storms is expected this afternoon with MVFR ceilings/visibilities
and localized IFR conditions within any storms. Another round of
light fog and low ceilings is possible again tonight. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Light onshore flow persists through Friday before winds turn more
westerly over the weekend and into early next week. Locally higher
winds and seas are possible near thunderstorms this week. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      85  71  86  71 /  70  20  60  30
Pensacola   85  73  86  74 /  60  10  40  40
Destin      84  74  85  74 /  50  10  40  50
Evergreen   87  70  87  70 /  60  20  70  40
Waynesboro  86  70  86  70 /  60  20  60  40
Camden      86  69  85  69 /  40  30  70  60
Crestview   87  70  89  71 /  60  10  60  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$