383
FXUS64 KMOB 140711
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
111 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 106 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

 - A strong system could bring gusty winds and strong to severe
   storms to the area late tonight into Sunday.

 - Strong marine winds are anticipated tonight into Sunday night
   with the potential for occasional gusts to gale force resulting
   in hazardous boating conditions.

 - High surf heights up to 5 to 8 feet and strong rip currents
   will impact coastal portions of Alabama and the Florida
   Panhandle this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

For the rest of the overnight hours, a surface frontal boundary
currently extends just along the coast and up into southeast
Mississippi. This boundary is helping to separate dewpoints in the
upper 30s to mid 40s to its north from dewpoints in the mid to
upper 50s to its south. Similar to last night, this boundary will
waffle back and forth between pushing offshore and moving back
onshore. This once again presents the challenge of whether or not
we will get fog development. Right now probabilistic SREF/HREF
data suggests that the best chances of seeing dense fog will be
over southeast Mississippi, and possibly into southern Mobile
county. Additionally, with light onshore flow becoming established
and higher dewpoints overtop cool nearshore waters, it is looking
likely that some sea fog may develop over Mobile Bay and the
Mississippi Sound over the next few hours. A Marine Dense Fog
Advisory remains in effect until 7am, and we will watch trends
over land closely to see if a Dense Fog Advisory will become
necessary.

Our dry pattern quickly begins to change by tonight and into Sunday
as a southern stream trough barrels across the southern US. Prior to
this trough passing overhead, a diffluent, southwesterly flow
pattern develops and spreads across the local area. This will help
to advect deep moisture into the area from the Gulf (PWATs
increasing to 1.3-1.5 inches). At the surface, an associated low
pressure system, currently developing over the central US, will
quickly push across the Deep South. As it approaches, it will help
to lift the aforementioned stationary boundary northward as a warm
front tonight, ushering in dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.
Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms appear
likely starting tonight after the warm front pushes through and
confluence bands set up across the area. As the low approaches the
area, a strongly forced line of thunderstorms looks to develop
ahead of an associated cold front. This line will likely push
through the area quickly during the morning hours on Sunday,
although there is still a bit of uncertainty as to how early it
will arrive. Overall, latest guidance has trended a bit earlier,
with the line possibly reaching our Mississippi counties by around
3-5 AM, southwest Alabama by around 5-7 AM, and the I-65 corridor
by around 7-9 AM. The line should exit the area by around 10
AM-12 PM. The primary threat with this line is the potential for
damaging winds up to 60 mph due to a strengthening LLJ (850mb jet
of around 45-55 knots). It should also be noted that some of the
latest CAMs suggest an even stronger rear inflow jet (on the order
of 60-70 knots at 850mb) punching into the back of the line. If
this is able to descend to the surface, we could very well see
winds stronger than 60 mph in localized spots. The big question
still is with regards to the thermodynamic environment. Rather
poor lapse rates along with the early morning timeframe should
help to limit instability overall. That being said, a very narrow
warm sector may attempt to push northward just ahead of the line,
bringing SBCAPE values up to around 500-1000 J/kg over our coastal
counties. On top of this, forecast hodographs are large and
curved, yielding 0-1km SRH values of 250-350 m2/s2. If these
values were to be realized and the line remains surface based (and
doesn`t become undercut), a low-end tornado threat may
materialize within the line.

After the main line passes, we may see a brief lull in activity for
a few hours. By the afternoon, as the upper trough/surface low
pushes overhead, moisture is expected to wrap around these features,
sparking a second round of showers and storms, mainly for interior
areas. Several CAMs are suggesting that instability values will
increase through the afternoon thanks to surface heating and
steepening lapse rates. Although shear is not as robust as earlier
in the day, deep layer shear around 35-40 knots could result in some
storm organization. And with some guidance suggesting weak curvature
in the hodographs, along with storm relative inflow winds around 20-
25mph, a few mini-spinnies, capable of producing a brief tornado or
two, are possible. Small hail also cannot be ruled out in the
deepest storms.

Outside of storms, winds will be rather gusty due to the low
creating a tight pressure gradient across the area and the low-level
jet overhead. Wind starting as early as 3 AM could gust as high as
25-35 mph, highest along the coast. Winds should begin to weaken by
the mid afternoon (around 3-4 PM). At this time, we should remain
below Wind Advisory criteria, but we will continue to monitor trends
closely. These strong winds will also lead to dangerous beach
conditions. A High Surf Advisory is in effect from 3 AM though 9 PM
Sunday for surf heights increasing to 5-8 feet. A High Risk of Rip
Currents is also in effect starting tonight and continuing through
Monday before returning back to a Low Risk by Tuesday.

For the remainder of the period, we remain warm and dry.
Temperatures will increase through the week, with highs potentially
reaching the low 80s by midweek. With these warm and humid
conditions, dense fog may become an issue each night next week. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

General VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Exception
is local fog development over southwestern portions of the
forecast area bringing drops in VISBYs to IFR levels. Light winds
overnight will transition to southeasterly 10-15 knots Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night. /16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 106 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Light onshore flow this morning will increase to moderate
by the afternoon and strong by Saturday night into Sunday. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect from this evening through Sunday night.
Occasional gusts to near gale force are possible Sunday, along with
seas up to 7-10 feet. A moderate to strong offshore flow becomes
established Sunday night in the wake of a cold front, gradually
waning to a light to moderate offshore flow by Monday afternoon.
Light to moderate onshore flow returns for Tuesday. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  59  73  55 /   0  90  90  20
Pensacola   67  59  70  57 /   0  80 100  30
Destin      66  58  70  57 /   0  70 100  30
Evergreen   74  54  73  52 /   0  80 100  40
Waynesboro  74  58  70  52 /  10  90  80  20
Camden      72  55  70  53 /   0  80 100  40
Crestview   73  53  73  53 /   0  70 100  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Monday afternoon
     for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Monday afternoon
     for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     GMZ630>632.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Sunday
     for GMZ630>636-650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
     for GMZ670-675.

&&

$$