106
FXUS64 KMOB 171732
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1053 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Near term forecast on track as the central Gulf coast remains on
the convectively active eastern flank of a short-wave upper trof
aligned over the Mid-South to off the central LA coast. Environmental
moisture remains high with PWAT`s 1.8 to 2.0". Considering these
players along with sufficient instability (MUCapes ranging
3000-4000 J/KG) and a multitude of rain-cooled surface based outflow
boundaries to aid in focused ascent in the mesoscale favors
numerous to widespread showers and storms the remainder of the
day. Some of the storms likely to be strong, containing brief
strong wind gusts to around 40 mph, concentrated and frequent
lightning, perhaps small hail, and locally heavy rains. Storms
are showing steady northward movement as to limit residence time
over any one area, but short term heavy rainfall rates could
yield to instances of nuisance type flooding in lower lying,
poorly drained areas. Forecasters cannot discount the potential of
a risk of marginally severe storms over the interior this
afternoon and evening. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Upper end MVFR/VFR conditions with local drops to mid level MVFR
in scattered showers and thunderstorms were noted across the
forecast area at noontime. Am expecting this convection to move
inland with south to southwesterly winds of 5 to 10 knots through
the afternoon into the evening before weakening as the day`s
heating is loss. General VFR conditions are expected tonight with
convection developing along and south of the cost moving inland
and affecting areas along and south of I-10, then inland. Again
south to southwesterly winds of 5 to 10 knots are expected.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A light to at times moderate onshore flow prevails through
Saturday. Winds and seas will be higher near storms, and the
environment also looks to be supportive of waterspouts in morning
activity near the coast. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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