562
FXUS64 KMOB 060533
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1233 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms remain possible through
  the upcoming week. Any storms may produce gusty winds and
  torrential rainfall with isolated instances of flash flooding
  possible.

- Peak heat index values of around 100-107 are expected through
  mid next week, warmest today and Monday. A Heat Advisory may be
  needed for portions of the area Monday with some spots
  approaching 108 to 110 heat indices.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

We continue to sit on the periphery of upper ridging with subtle
shortwaves aloft moving across the area. This will help to keep us
hot and stormy as we head through Monday. Afternoon highs will be
quite hot over the interior topping out in the middle to upper
90`s with heat indices warming into the 100 to 107 range. Nearer
the coast, we don`t mix out quite as much and stay in the lower to
middle 90`s for highs with similar heat indices. A shortwave
moves across the area this afternoon, serving as a focus for
thunderstorm development. Guidance varies significantly on the
convective evolution, but the presence of the shortwave with ample
instability gives confidence that at least scattered coverage of
showers and storms will exist this afternoon areawide, lingering
into the evening hours nearer the coast. There`s also a fair
amount of uncertainty Monday depending on convective evolution
upstream across Georgia/Carolina`s where a complex of storms may
form and roll across the area. If that doesn`t exist, then we will
likely see another day similar to Sunday with hot afternoon
temperatures and scattered to numerous showers and storms. If
storms are more robust in the morning, we`d likely stay cooler
through the day with a drier afternoon. Any storms through Monday
will have the potential to be strong, capable of producing strong
wind gusts in addition to heavy rainfall. Isolated instances of
flash flooding can`t be ruled out across urban areas where storms
are able to train over the same locations.

Upper ridging gradually spreads eastward across the region with
deep layer easterly flow becoming established Tuesday into
Wednesday. After this, ridging breaks down into late week as upper
troughing becomes established across the eastern CONUS. This
should keep us with a somewhat active pattern as subtle shortwaves
continue to ride the periphery of the ridge. The expectation is
for scattered to locally numerous showers and storms each
afternoon, with daily highs in the lower to middle 90`s.
Similarly, any storms may be able to produce gusty winds and heavy
rainfall. Overnight temperatures stay steady state in the lower
to middle 70`s.

The rip current risk remains Low for Florida/Alabama beaches
throughout the period, perhaps trying to reach Moderate Tuesday as
stronger easterly flow becomes established. For now, we continue
to advertise a Low risk but may need to bump that up in future
forecast package updates. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Focus for this morning will be developing TSRA/SHRA across coastal
locations, potentially impacting KJKA/KPNS, with Prob30`s
introduce mainly from 10-14Z (but could begin earlier based on
latest radar trends requiring AMD`s - will monitor). Otherwise,
will see additional inland SCT TSRA/SHRA later this afternoon, but
could see a few strong or locally severe storms drifting in from
the north late afternoon into the evening. Main impacts will be
gusty, erratic downdraft winds and reduced VIS/CIGs from heavy
rain leading to periodic lower flight categories. Otherwise, VFR
outside of SHRA/TSRA activity will prevail. KLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A generally light to occasionally moderate southwest to west flow
prevails through Monday. Light to moderate easterly flow becomes
established Tuesday into Wednesday. Light to occasionally moderate
onshore flow returns for the remainder of the week into the
weekend. Seas generally stay around 1 to 2 feet throughout the
upcoming week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
remain possible during the morning hours each day with the
potential to produce gusty winds and waterspouts. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      92  74  94  74 /  40  20  60  40
Pensacola   91  77  92  76 /  30  20  60  60
Destin      89  78  90  76 /  20  30  70  60
Evergreen   95  72  95  71 /  50  40  50  40
Waynesboro  96  73  98  72 /  40  30  20  20
Camden      96  73  96  72 /  50  40  20  30
Crestview   94  73  94  72 /  40  20  80  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$