804
FXUS64 KMOB 170744
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
244 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...New MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 243 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

 - A High Risk of rip currents and elevated surf heights up to 4
   feet continues through Thursday afternoon.

 - Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous
   conditions for small craft over the open Gulf through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

The center of a very powerful upper high continues over the
Tennessee River Valley. This high is expected to slowly retrograde
west towards the southern Great Plains and weaken through the
weekend. Meanwhile, a weak upper low is currently off the coast of
Florida. The center will move west and strengthen over Florida
through the first part of the weekend. Our area is between these two
upper features with enhanced northeasterly flow funneling in drier
air.

PWATs have dropped to below normal with the current values of ~1.5
inches further dropping to 1.0-1.2 inches which lasts through Friday
before returning closer to normal. With such low moisture, little to
no precipitation is expected through Friday before moisture returns
to the area. By Saturday afternoon the upper low moves further west
into the Gulf which increases the PWATs. Depending on how
quick/close the upper low can fully retrograde closer to the area
bringing the moisture with it, this begins daily precipitation
chances through mid next week. This pattern brings isolated to
scattered storms over the marine areas in the morning and moves
inland for the afternoon with the highest coverage closer to the
coast.

The area will continue to have above normal temperatures through the
beginning of next week. Expect highs in the low to mid 90s for
Thursday then increasing to the mid to upper 90s for Friday through
the beginning of next week. Dry air being funneled in will keep the
area mixed and afternoon dewpoints in the 60s through most of the
weekend, especially for inland areas. This should keep heat indices
below advisory criteria even with the temperatures being well above
normal. Good overnight relief comes over the next few days as low
temperatures are at normal in the upper 60s inland to the low 70s
along the immediate coast.

...BEACH/COASTAL FORECAST...

Hazardous conditions continue for area beaches and the Gulf waters.
A Small Craft Advisory continues over the open Gulf waters out 60nm
through 4PM Thursday for moderate to strong easterly winds creating
dangerous boating conditions. Expect winds of 15-25 knots and
periodic gusts up to 30 knots. For the beaches in southern Alabama
and the northwest Florida Panhandle, a HIGH risk of rip currents
will continue through the day Thursday and become MODERATE through
at least Friday.

SS/97

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected through Thursday evening. East to
northeast winds 5 knots or less increase to near 10 knots on
Thursday. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Moderate to strong easterly flow eases into Friday. Winds become a
more diurnally afternoon onshore, night time offshore this weekend
on into early next week. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
for the open Gulf waters until 4 pm this afternoon. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      90  69  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   90  74  91  73 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      90  74  90  76 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   90  67  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  92  67  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      91  68  96  70 /   0   0   0  10
Crestview   89  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ650-
     655-670-675.

&&

$$