751
FXUS64 KMOB 190736
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
236 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...New MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 236 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

 - Scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms are
   expected through the weekend and into the beginning of next
   week. A few storms could be strong with gusty winds being the
   main threat.

 - Above normal temperatures push heat indices into the 100-106
   degree range Saturday through the beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

The center of an upper high is starting to weaken after retrograding
west to the southern Great Plains. Meanwhile, a weak upper low is
currently near the eastern coast of Florida. Our area is currently
between these two upper features with enhanced northeasterly flow.
The center of the upper low will continue to move west and will
strengthen through the the weekend. PWATs have began to increase
again with current values around 1.5 inches and will return closer
to/above normal by Saturday afternoon. This is due to the upper low
moving further west into the open Gulf shifts the area to more
easterly flow bringing Atlantic moisture. Slightly more organized
convection may be able to make it into south-central Alabama
Saturday afternoon into the evening from the northwest, but there is
some uncertainty in if it will be strong enough to make it. The more
typical daily precipitation pattern starts Sunday bringing isolated
to scattered storms over the marine areas in the morning and moves
inland for the afternoon with the highest coverage closer to the
coast.

The upper low gets reabsorbed into the mean flow by Tuesday which
would allow for the ridge to try and build back into the area from
the west. There are also some indications of a trough trying to win
out and dip into the area bringing a cold front by mid to end of
next week. We largely switch into northwest flow which drops PWATs
back to below normal to 1.3-1.5 inches. Pops largely decrease by mid
week with just some isolated chances where there is some increased
convergence/moisture along the afternoon seabreeze, which with
northerly surface flow, this feature would be more pinned to the
coast than typical.

The area will continue to have above normal temperatures through mid
next week. Expect highs in the mid to upper 90s inland and low 90s
along the immediate coast through the weekend. Afternoon dewpoints
should be in the upper 60s to low 70s for most inland areas,
potentially even the mid 60s in southeast Mississippi where the
highest temperatures are expected. Heat indices stay below advisory
criteria in the 100-106 range even with the temperatures being well
above normal. The area still gets some overnight relief even with
low temperatures above normal in low 70s inland and the mid 70s
along the immediate coast. The previously mentioned possible cold
front towards the end of next week would bring temperatures/humidity
down and put low temperatures back into the 60s. Something to watch,
but would definitely be a welcomed sight after such a warm September
so far.

...BEACH FORECAST...

For the beaches in southern Alabama and the northwest Florida
Panhandle, the rip current risk drops to a LOW Saturday through the
beginning of next week. For the weekend through mid next week, surf
heights remain generally 1 to 2 feet outside of any storms. Guidance
shows marine winds increasing by Wednesday which would increase the
rip current risk and surf heights for mid to end of next week, so
this will be monitored over the upcoming forecast cycles.

SS/97

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected through Saturday evening. Calm or
light and variable winds become predominately northerly around 5
knots on Saturday, with a switch to a southerly direction near the
coast late in the afternoon. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A mainly light diurnal flow prevails through the middle of next week
with winds trending to an occasionally moderate onshore flow each
afternoon then offshore at night. Seas will be 1 to 2 feet. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      95  73  94  73 /   0   0  30  10
Pensacola   93  77  91  76 /   0  10  40  30
Destin      91  77  89  76 /   0  10  40  30
Evergreen   97  70  94  69 /  20  20  20  10
Waynesboro  97  72  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
Camden      97  71  95  71 /  30  20  20  10
Crestview   96  72  92  71 /  10  10  50  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$